Bitcoin bottom is not yet reached
When the sentiment is already very bearish, which is a very excellent question, now you're at your job. Do you remember Charlie just a few weeks ago, man, you did a webinar together and we were talking about contrarian thinking. Uh, in fact, here's my video right here. So this is the video from my a video we did together that a couple of weeks ago, two, three weeks ago. I think it was. There it is. So what will happen was just to let me get my pen here so I can draw on this chart. So I, as you may know, I genuinely believe that this rally that occurred in Bitcoin here, this rally, I believe this was actually the start of a new upward trend. I got it wrong. I admit that I was wrong about that, although certainly the fact that there was a strong rally with volume with strong volume happening right here.
Okay. This was an indication that potentially the trend was reversing and in fact Charlie at the time agreed with me as well. This could potentially be a bottom, but I also said this, I think me and you, Charlie, both of us said this, that in order for this to be an uptrend, price must not fall back to the previous lows. They must not fall below $6,800, must not fall below two, $6,000, and I said at the time that even though I was bullish on Bitcoin at the time, which of course turned out to be incorrect as well as we can see now. It is true that we said that if price war to come back to the previous lows, that would not be a good sign at all and it actually would increase the probability that we're going to potentially break these loans. These loans that be formed back in February lows formed back in April and of course more importantly, the lowe's back formed in June, which means that if we break those lows eventually perhaps by end of August or perhaps by September, we could potentially go much further lower.
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Now, the question that was asked on my video just recently was what? Hang on a second. Lush isn't the majority opinion right now, bearish. So surely if everybody thinks it's going to go lower, that's an if, if the majority opinion is already bearish, why would price go lower? Which is a very good question. So I'm going to try and address this question. Okay. Um, and then we'll get to, we'll get Charlie's opinion on this as well. So here's the thing, and okay, so here's. This is a chart of bitcoin from the bear markets, so that just to, just to show you guys that top line that you see on that chart, that is, that is the price of Bitcoin from 2014 to 2015 during his massive bear market. Okay. Underneath is a bitcoin sentiment, short courtesy of Jason Jeopardy of sentiment trader.com. And for those of you net, for those who don't know Jason Gephart, he takes a look ahead, the sentiments of different markets including Bitcoin, and I keep an eye on the sentiment as you can see here. Now, take a look at this. During the bear markets off Bitcoin from 2014 to 2015. Let me look over here. Throughout this entire period when price was falling and over here, all right, what was the price? Doing? Price wasn't a downtrend. Okay. Price was falling here. There's no doubt about it. Guys that during the 2014 and 2015 bitcoin market was in a in a bear market. It wasn't a downward trend, but look at them. Look at the sentiment. Then look at the sentiment was the sentiment in the during that period was a sentiment bullish or bearish. Have a look at it and you're telling me you guys, so what? By the way, just let you know this is the line of excessive optimism. This red level and this is the line of excessive pessimism, so this is bearishness better sentiments and this is his sentiment that this is bullish sentiment at the top. Take a look guys and you will see something. Notice that even though even though the bitcoin sentiment was very bearish here to look at 2014 here, it doesn't have 14 bitcoin was very.
The sentiment. I wonder when we say, since we're talking about public opinion, the public sentiment, the majority of traders, the majority of the public opinion was heavily against Bitcoin, better sentiments when even though even though the price was falling, bearish sentiment continued and it continued. So you'll notice guys that even though the sentiment was heavily against bitcoin price, still continue to drop it continue to drop further and further. So why? You might be asking yourself why was that happening and the reason I'll ask, I'll ask Charlie's opinion on this as well, but you see guys, what you have to appreciate is this, when you're in a bear market, price does not care that much about the sentiment anymore sentiment or public opinion or, uh, the bullishness bearishness of off the, off the public or everybody else. That is one third of what you look at, what you analyse when you look at the price.
So when you analyse a market, you don't just look at the sentiment, you're going to look at the price action. You got to ask yourself, isn't a bull market? Or we're in a bear market. What are the, what are the technical, what are the charts saying to us? So sentiment is just one thing, one of three things that you look at the other. The other two are technical and some people would say, look at fundamentals. Although I'm personally not heavily into the fundamentals, I do look at it certainly, but I. I'm more of a technical person and yes, I do look at sentiment to let guys. Here's what you have to appreciate. What you have to appreciate is that in a bear market, the sentiments rule breaks down. It doesn't really apply in a bear market. And actually here's a hint, here's an important thing.
You know you're in a bear market. Well, you know you're about to enter a bear market when even though the price. Let me just remove everything then just remove all this stuff on my chart here. You know you're about to enter a bear market or you're. No, you're in a bear market. When price does not care about the bearish sentiment in a bear market or when you were about to start the bear market, the price, sorry, the sentiment can remain bearish and price can continue dropping. Alright, did you get that? So you know you're in a bear market or you know you're about to enter a bear market when you can have public opinion heavily bearish on a market heavily against the market and price does not care. Price continues to drop. Why? Now? There are many reasons here, but one of the main reasons is the sellers are in control.
Okay? Bears have control. So what's happening is that there's not enough demand to hold off this. The supply. There's not enough demand to hold off the selling, so there's more sellers in the market than there are buyers. So as a result, both short sellers and the people who bought before perhaps unloading on loading and getting rid of their holdings. Unfortunately, sellers of control and that means despite the heavily bearish sentiment price can continue dropping. So guys, that rule we had that we talked about in the previous video about when is the opinion, when is the, when is the majority opinion wrong? Unfortunately that rule breaks down in a bear market. So you're right, that person who commented on my video, he was right. The sentiment right now, let's look at a sentiment writing down bitcoin. This is the sentiment right now, August 2018, again, courtesy of Jason Gephardt of them, trader.com.
The sentiment has been heavily bearish and what happens, the market doesn't care. The rallies don't, don't succeed. Look at this. The sentiment has been very bearish here recently from June to July, sentiments been bearish and I genuinely, I genuinely thought a genuinely believed this was the start of a bull market. But look what happened. That book, that rally failed the rally we had just recently this rally here that failed. It failed despite a heavily bearish sentiment in the market, despite the fact that majority opinion we're bearish on Bitcoin, which tells us what it tells us. Perhaps the majority opinion actually isn't bearish, perhaps is perhaps we were wrong to say that there were that many bears in the market. I actually think there's about a 50 slash 50. Um, I think the. I don't think people have turned against bit coin as much as we think they, what they have.
I now believe that actually there are just about many bulls, British people out there as there are bears. So I think we were wrong to say some weeks ago that the majority opinion was bearish. I still think there's way too many bulls in this market and we'll need to get those bulls. I think what, what needs to happen is in order for, in order for us to see a bottom in Bitcoin, what needs to happen is that the majority of people need to turn against bitcoin. That hasn't happened yet. I've read the comments on my videos, guys. I've been reading the comments on my videos. I've been checking the opinions of people and I can say this guys, that that's not true. People haven't turned against bitcoin. In fact, you will see just recently a bitcoin had that hit an extreme bullish, uh, just about a few weeks ago.
So yeah. What we're seeing guys, I think what's happening is that we're. This is a sign of a bear market or we're about to enter a bear market. I don't think we're there yet. I said before this, I said before that we will only enter a bear market when bitcoin officially takes out the previous lows officially breaks down below the February, July, June, Lowe's. Okay. I don't think we're there yet, but I think we could happen. That could happen potentially by September. So guys, I think what's happening is this, the reason why, the reason why bitcoin can continue to drop this spike bearish sentiment is because we could be entering a bear market in a bear market. The rule about the rule about bear sentiments being in a contrarian our signal that rule breaks down, it doesn't, doesn't apply. Remember guys in a bear market price can continue dropping this despite everybody being embarrassed or the majority being.
Yeah, because there's going to be a lot of people on the side-lines who may not be in the market so they don't come under these measurements, but they might still be optimistic you see, and I know from speaking to generally to people, other people still associate bitcoin with something that they might want to invest into, but they may not have actually invested yet, but they're still, you know, they're still interested in that market. There's still a huge amount of interest there and that sentiment hasn't a raid a raised being raised yet? Exactly what you've just said. So you've got the, that something like that indicator will be measuring the sentiment amongst traders, people who were active in that market. There's a lot of people who are not active in it but still in coming into the market just as we speak. And so, um, yeah, I mean I still see it if you go onto the likes of Instagram and some of the social medias out there, there's still a lot of stuff out there about, about the cryptocurrencies and quite rightly so, you know, it's something that's here for the future. But, um, I think you're absolutely right. The, um, there's a, I don't think everyone's flushed out enough yet. I think once everyone's a bit sick of bitcoin and the likes, then um, then yeah, we'll probably see a true bottom.
The chart saying to us, you look, we've had three failed rallies. One failed rally here too, is the second rally failed. The third rally, which had really some potential. It doesn't say this third rally guys, let's not forget this, that rally. The third one should have succeeded if we were about to enter a bull market. So if the bull market theory was correct and I believe that to be correct at the time, based on the evidence, based on the volume and everything else, why did it fail? It failed clearly because there's so many centres out there, there's too many. I know there's many players involved. I do. I do know is that if there was enough demand, we should have stayed in a bull market. We should have stayed. We should have continued this uptrend. This trend should have continued above 9,000 to 10,000. It didn't do that.
So why not? Why didn't it do it? Because there's not just, there isn't enough demand at these current levels. There's not enough buyers out there against sellers to push us into a bull market and as Charlie was saying, we need to see these bulls being flushed out until everyone, until everyone has turned against bitcoin and that that has not happened yet. Guys, not everyone has turned against bitcoin. They're still significantly a lot of bulls out there and until everyone has turned against bitcoin and calling for lower and lower levels, I don't think we're going to see a bottoming pattern, a bottom and guys remember between 2014 and 2015, look at this chart between 2014 and 2015 bitcoin kept dropping and what was. What was the sentiment? The sentiment was overall bearish, bearish, bearish. Look at it so clearly guys, that bear sentiment did not help form a bottom in bitcoin until everyone finally gives up, which means with, which means what it means. You got to look at the price action. You got to look at the price action, not just the sentiment.