Why should Bitcoin grow in price from 6k to 25 k from now on?
We see in the ETF world, smaller niche firms moving first become market makers. Jane Street for instance, is the top three market maker in etfs and Wall Street banks were kind of behind the curve. Do they risk falling behind the curve here with cryptocurrencies and that's why they're there getting into it quickly? A fear of missing out almost. Well, yeah, I mean there's a couple of things. He might, number one, you know, if you take exchanges like coinbase or finance and they have two or three percent market share of crypto trading, their net income is going to be close to a billion dollars this year. Goldman as a firm only made 8 billion in the entire last 12 months. So exchange trading a crypto as it is today in a small market is extremely lucrative and that's why I think banks should get into the business, but here's something that people don't fundamentally understand.
There's actually not that much speculation and crypto today. So if you take compared to last year, you mean or compared to other markets? So just an eye. So I compiled this data for a client recently, but if you look at the Bank of international settlements for us dollar, right, the m two is like 8 trillion or 7 trillion. The ratio of dollars traded across all exchanges globally to m two is 141 to one. So for every dollar in your pocket plus the electronic money, it's treated 140 times across all these different exchanges, including all the deaths of all these brokers. Um, commodities are like oil as close to 40 times crypto is for really. So crypto on chain versus exchange is four to one. I mean, well, but it's also in circulation as occurrancy much, much less. In other words, you used real dollars a lot more. You use real oil for stuff a lot more.
So it doesn't that kind of. Well, I mean, first you know, crypto is, is a digital payment system actually surprisingly widely used. So there's a company called Bitpay, which I believe is only six percent of all crypto payment services. It's going to do about 7 billion of accepted payments this year. That's a lot. I mean, for something that people say is, uh, is, you know, worse than rat poison. I mean it's been used $7,000,000, but where, where, I mean, what are those transactions actually? So, uh, so Christine Lagarde, the IMF actually made this point. She, she, you know, I would say the US, most economies are decentralized. So like if you need to do payments to pay for a poem was her example. It's actually much easier to use a bit coin because you like it goes from Japan to France. If you use a money transfer agent, use 15 percent of Bitcoin, it just gets transmitted.
So. Alright. So finally I got to ask you the $25,000 question because that was your near your end target for boats. Like a gangster you mean? Yeah, yeah, that's, I mean it feels like in the Crypto, in crypto market sometimes it's a bit of a game show. I mean, do you, do you think? I think completely reasonable. Yeah. I mean, so just consider this at, you know, 25,000 says bitcoin will make a new high by the end of the year and it peaked at $20,000 a year ago I think. Or in December. I 100 percent think that's reasonable because one, we know that by the end of this year we'll have a lot more visibility on institutional activity and everything you mentioned is pro crypto outside the US, the regulatory environment's improving, you know there's exchanges launching bitcoin mining is also going to suggest crypto should be worth $25,000 because you know next even with that increased supply coming to market that you were talking. Yeah because the fully loaded cost next year for bitcoin's going to be like 14,000 or something with difficulty reflecting the difficulty. So if it trades at two times, it should be around $25,000.