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Is it possible that now we see a bottom of Bitcoin fall and next top will be on a 200 000-dollar mark for one Bitcoin?

Hello, this is Bob Lucas, I'm an analyst with Bitcoin live and today I'm going to be presenting a very interesting and exciting update on the four year bitcoin cycle and I think this is the video that you're going to really want to pay attention to because the current action and sell off in the bitcoin markets really is something that is quite normal for this point in the cycle and one that really does present an amazing opportunity for those who have the foresight to look at it from the correct lens. So this will be a bit about a 10-minute video going over the bitcoin cycle, some of the history, some of how cycles work and then a look into the future into what some of the possibilities will be. Um, so first a little bit on me. I'm a 25-year veteran of training past 10 years.


My main focus has been on the study of cycles. Um, I study cycles in many asset classes such as obviously the equity markets, gold, silver, crude oil, the US dollar, and more recently bitcoin and crypto. I find that bitcoin is actually a perfect asset class for psychoanalysis. Cycles are pretty much a reflection of price over time, as is represented by the collective sentiment of the ecosystem of, of a, of an asset. And I find bitcoin because it is so universal, so global, uh, with so many different avenues for exchange that are fine price discovery to be more natural and more reflective of kind of the, uh, you know, the roar participation of the asset class as opposed to something that's possibly more regulated and manipulated in more traditional market. So I find cycles in bitcoin work really well and I'm going to show you some of those.
Um, so just really quick, a cycle is a measurement of time from one low to another low. So we measure a price low, uh, over a given period of time. And today I'm going to go over a four-year cycle, but within a four year cycle you will find one year cycles that are intertwined in that. And then you'll find what I call a daily cycle. And you may have seen on twitter and other avenues where I've posted charts on the daily cycle, that's a cycle that's over 60-day period, so that one's a faster cycle, but the shorter cycles or intertwine with a longest cycle all the way out to a four-year cycle. Now going back to kind of the early days of bitcoin going back to 2011, obviously you have stories of the first kind of transactions that were occurring, more like a barter exchange for bitcoin.
The most famous one of course being the, uh, the pizza transaction that's now the equivalent of hundreds of millions of dollars. Um, I find that time and price discovery sort of before that point is a little bit irrelevant to cycles. There really wasn't enough participation. The asset class just was not well developed enough at that point. But around the 2011 point when Mt Gox and a couple of other smaller exchange came to existence and bitcoin's price discovery I ran at about the sixty cent mark really came about. I find that that's kind of the point where cycles really begin at least the measurement of cycles and real price discovery begins in bitcoin. So my first mark on this chart you will notice is, you know, around the 2000 and mid 2011 timeframe, uh, I don't have all the price data for that. I couldn't marry it with a man caucus data, but this is essentially, you know, a sixty cent area below this point up to a 30 $11 range here, $12 range.

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And we had the first real big crash back to sort of two or $3. And then we continued higher. Essentially what this is telling us here, what I'm showing you here is a four-year cycle for years of course being 208 weeks. And what I'm showing you here is that the first big four-year cycle for Bitcoin was a big bull cycle. We had a move primarily a bull trend of going up 442 weeks to a top. So 142 weeks represented 70 percent of the four-year cycle in time. Going up from there, we had a period of 59 weeks of a bear market, so we had obviously a kind of a blow off top towards the end. Um, we saw a $100, million or 10 times increase in price over just the last sort of seven weeks. And then we had really what started off as a mild bear market.
I mean it was 50 percent retracement, but from where it came from, it wasn't necessarily all that bad. And then ended of course towards the end in more of a capitulation, more of a big self. And you see that in representation in the volume that we had at that capitulation point at week two. Oh one. So this essentially is a four-year period, a full year cycle of bitcoin. This was the first real big, you know, market or cycle in, in, in bitcoin that occurred. And then what happened was we went into the second four-year cycle, um, for, for bitcoin. Now, don't be confused, these the not necessarily related to the havening schedules to having schedules that we have in Bitcoin, although I'm sure there's a decent amount of correlation to some extent, but just going in now and looking here, I'm going to zoom out a little bit and start to bring into focus the next four-year cycle, which we just went through.
So now what you see here is a second full year cycle. Begin around the January timeframe with a capitulation dropped down to the one $50 area that started what was first really just a flat, an accumulation phase with bitcoin. This really is associated with many people associate this flat period with the prior bear market. Technically it is part of the new four-year cycle, but like any new four-year cycle, there was a period of. It's still what you called despair, hopelessness, and I'm sideways price action, but really underneath all of this as accumulation going on, there's not a lot of selling. There's actually smart money accumulation occurring and then you get to a point, a couple of daily cycles, maybe four to six months out. We really start to get some recognition here and you see it represented in this volume here. This is when now the bull, the spring, the spring of the, uh, the four-year cycle begins.
This is where it starts to take off and now it starts to accelerate and you can kind of see that back in the first four-year cycle, you had this huge drop back to toddles. You had somewhat of a rally. Then you had this accumulation phase, then you had kind of the spring and you see the first sign of volume there. And from there I was off to the market and off to the races I should say, and all the way higher. And you see the same thing occur here. This is a more pronounced or more steady sort of bull market run. The 26 weeks, 26 week moving average was six month moving average shows you as price cross back over the 26 week moving average that the bull market was on and it pretty much held that run that 26 week moving average all the way up to a top.
Now, what you see here in this four-year cycle compared to the past four-year cycle, is that you had this similar three quarters of the four-year cycle of moving higher in the bull phase. We call this right translation in cycles, meaning that the cycle for ms dot lowe to the next low is right translated, meaning the midpoint of the cycle occurs well past. I'm sorry, the top of the cycle goes well past the midpoint and in this case we had a top at week 152, which is almost three years. Of course a three years would have been 156 weeks, so just shy of three years from the last low. Here we had a market top similar to the last one. You have a separation between sort of the longer 26 week moving average and price. That was a giveaway. Obviously the Bollinger bands.

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If the wind here, you'd see the weekly bonds pull out an outside of the Bollinger bands and then what we have now currently is a 50-week decline, very similar to the 59 week decline we saw back in the prior four-year cycle decline. Now I'm not necessarily calling for an end to this bear market right here right now, but we are at week 202, which is very similar to the $200 one-week cycle low that we had back in 2015. Now you'll recall four years of cycles is 208 weeks. So there is a possibility here that we're going to see a kind of a low form. Um, and then we have what we call a norther daily cycle. Daily cycle is two months or 60 trading days and 60 trading days is roughly eight weeks. So there is an outside possibility now that we're looking at a relief rally that plays out that we rally a little higher sort of back almost to support.
And then you come back down and then looking at a February low at around about the 29 slash 25 is really no way of knowing with price, but from a time perspective, looking at a February low and then moving higher. So just before I move into kind of the next phase, just important here to understand as we look at price and we'll look at this 83 percent decline from the top and we'll look at this more recent, 50 percent decline from the $6,300 level or a we see the massive $2,000 drop that this is not a time to be panicking. Panicking should have come earlier. The selling should have come much earlier. The profit taking obviously should have come well and truly, um, when, when sort of that parabola had broken and um, you know, come, come all the way back down now is not the time to look back and say, what if, okay, if, um, if it didn't sell out, now's not the time to sell.
Now at the time to hold, now's the time to accumulate. Now at the time to add more to your long-term stash, but what's more important than anything else is to understand that how these cycles do move in this ebb and flow of fashion. We get this three year, move up one, you move down, three, you move up one year, one, one year, moved down. Now that's the case because this is a new technology that's revolutionary and we are going to see probably at least one more of these four year cycles move higher before we have any real threat of what we call left translated, four-year cycle where it tops earlier than declined for a number of years. So if that's the case, then what I want to do is Kind of zoom out a little bit and let you know that, um, you know, if, if you panic sell right now, you're going to regret that for a very long time.
People who sold out, right? The end here, they held on, they held on, they regretted that because they never be able to get back in. They saw the market moved 50 percent from the lows, even a hundred percent off the lows. Very rapidly and then seeing price 100 percent higher from the lows from where they sold out, never allowed them the opportunity, at least in their mind to get back in and establish a position. Um, and that was unfortunate because many of those people also came back in later on in the cycle when it was well and truly in the advanced stage of a bull market trend and got in because they just couldn't take missing out on future gains and everybody talking about how much money they had made. I'm going to zoom out now and just give you an idea of what we're looking at potentially in the future here. Um, so again, let's go in and get some drawing tools here. I want to show you, first of all, I want to draw out from this low. I want to go out. Let's go 150 weeks. Okay? Because that's kind of 145. I just leave it at that. I'm going to take 145 weeks. I'm going to take my blue bar and drawer out there and then I'm going to take kind of the same tool
and I'm going to draw that out for 55 weeks and that's going to represent to bear phase. Okay. In total, that should be around about 200 weeks, which you hundred 10 weeks if I've done that correctly. So I'll just take this just to confirm.
Alright, there's 200 bars. One hundred 99. Okay. So that's close enough. That's going to certainly serve its purpose. I'm going to unlock the auto. I'm going to kind of chart and bring this out and give you an idea now that if we're looking at a repeat here in the coming, uh, coming weeks, either starting from a low this week or a low in February, I think at this point when you look at the grand scheme of things here, it's kind of irrelevant. But now what we're looking at here is first of all, another kind of winter period rights. We rally back up, but then it kind of chopped sideways for probably half of the year. Come back up and then it'll start to break out of that range and this is where I start to build back up and build the base up here to test the $20,000 level and then I would think chop sideways again for a little bit of pr for a little bit of time there before it begins to then come out and I gain a lot more attention and a lot more.
A Lot more of a leveraged speculative bid at this point. So from this point it's kind of a stealth move at certainly at least the base around the five to $7,000 area knocking up against all this. What, what support would it be now? Resistance. Once it breaks through that, it's not going to have much attention. People have already moved on. Have for the most part, either run out of funds, dried out, capitulated, sold off. The really successful projects will remain, but in general this is a cleansing. This is the cleansing period of kind of the bare market. Early bull market. This is accumulation phase for new institutions or the savvy investors. Then when we stopped breaking out and starts to regain some of that price between 7,000 to 20,000, you're going to start to get and more interest, more media attention again until back to this $20,000 level.
Now, if you look at past charts, if you look at this sort of move here, and then this move, that's the equivalent phase. Once it starts to get back up to the old highs, that's when it begins to accelerate. And this is when it begins to sort of go parabolic. Um, let me see if I can move my chart higher. Now, I'm going to bring this up into this area here. Okay? To reconnect. So this is kind of an obviously price. You know, it's somewhat arbitrary at this point. Um, I can really stop at $80,000. It can go up to a 300,000. I'm not trying to predict a price point in the future. What I'm trying to tell you is that from a time based approach, we most likely will see another right translated four-year cycle that's going to move up and kind of get up into this point here.
I would say around about 100 to $200,000 range. Why is that? Because at that point, um, we're looking at from the breakout point of the prior bull market, it's a 10 x extension, so kind of, you know, 18,000, $20,000 level if a 10 excess tension gets you a $200,000. We had similar from this 13 hammered all level. We had almost a 20 x extension was like a 15 next extension that we had similar extensions in the past from bull markets. So getting up into the hundreds of hundred thousand dollars’ range is probably not unrealistic. I'm just a point on that. Let's talk market cap at $56,000. Bitcoin becomes a 1 trillion market cap and an over 100, 10,000 becomes 2 trillion. That's still a significant amount. But of course, in relation to gold at a trillion, it's still only 20 percent or 25 percent of that number. And today when you look at Bitcoin's market cap at 70 to $80,000,000,000, it is really a drop in the ocean.
Consider that some of the sort of mid-tier SNP companies have market caps in the 50 and $70,000,000,000 range. We're talking about just one company in the SNP based in us that's not even a top tour of 30 or 40 has the market cap of bitcoin. I think once you start to wrap your head around that, you realize that, um, we've all been focused on a nominal bitcoin price for too long and that has clouded the fact that bitcoin is to grossly undervalued for the future potential that it provides. And that's also because there'll be a lot of media attention on the sort of speculative for year bubbles that we see and the fact that we have a high sticker price of sort of, you know, 18, 20,000. Um, but also what we to realize is that bitcoin has been priced since inception. And one of the technology has been priced since inception.


If you look at the, you know, the discovery of electricity and light, for example, um, you know, those were, those discoveries were made in laboratories and it took a, you know, 10, 15 years to commercialize many of these technologies, the automobile and energy, for example. And even more recently the Internet. It's probably a better example, the Internet's origins really stand the sixties, you know, you've got the government Arpanet and you've got protocols like TCP IP in the seventies for example, um, you know, so it's not until more like into the late eighties, well obviously the nineties when you've got to act P and www come out that you really start to commercialize. And we have the ability to price that technology in the form of the dotcoms. But those are 20 years removed from the underlying protocol that align technology with bitcoin because it is a monetary assistance as well as a technology and a protocol.
You have a situation where it was able to be priced almost instantly within six months. You had bought a with Bitcoin, there was some level of price discovery, but then of course there were exchanges that were up within a, within months or 12 months from the initial genesis block, and that afforded the ability to provide a means for discovery price much, much earlier, decades in some cases, but obviously years much earlier than other traditional technologies or even a private company for example, you go to a traditional start up and you know, they, they get some private placement or some, some angel funding. Um, there really isn't a public price discovery mechanism, a tool you really get into the secondary markets and obviously then into stock exchanges or an IPO listing, we start to price a company that maybe 10 years old. So just be aware that all of this sort of price action from, um, from, you know, arbitrary number, more nominal standpoint is irrelevant.
Bitcoin has value at $70, billion is absolutely, um, undervalue at this point. And you have to realize that it's just going to take wave of wave of four year cycles like this until we get to a level which is somewhat representative of a fair value for this network and what it costs. And I think that doesn't really come in until the next four-year cycle. I don't know when we talk, we may top sooner than 150 weeks. This may be something like, you know, like a hundred-week top. And then the bear market that follows that is sort of long in the 50 weeks. I think again, that's kind of irrelevant. Um, what you're looking for is an explosion an above the $20,000 level. You're looking for five to 10 x from that point. That puts a $100 to 200, maybe even $250,000 a month for the next wave.
From there, then you begin the third bear market cycle, uh, of, of the third four-year cycle from that point. So we can just draw something in like that where we then get same type of sell off, get that hope rally. And then we come back down, I'm sorry I'm drawing a too quickly and then come back down and then we retrace another 85 percent of the move from a $20,000 error so you can come all the way back to say 30,000 bolts by the week, 210 around the four-year cycle, low area, and then you begin the process again. Um, that is an ebb and flow depiction of how cycles work over time and how sentiment on a longer timeframe or a longer scale really Akos in this sort of manner. Um, but overall if you draw sort of your, your, your, your, your trend line through that, it's consistently moving higher reflecting the adoption and that took the advancement in the technology and advancement in a crypto currency in general.
Um, so I hope you enjoyed this video. This is kind of the content that I provide on big corn live on a continuous basis. Mostly I'm focused on the daily cycle, which is a 60-day revolving ebenflow flow cycle. So you look at this four-year cycle when you seeing this up and down sort of flow. Then think of that in a 60-day timeframe. And my trader loads, my trading analysis with bitcoin live does primarily focused on that 60-day cycle. But what's important is that the 60-day cycle is significantly influenced by where we stand in this four-year cycle. So when last year in 2017 when we were in this bull market trend, all these 60 day cycles were right translated and no peeking very late and no falling right towards again for a week or two and then moving higher. So the bias then was obviously to belong to be more aggressive, to me, more leveraged during the 60-day cycle lows and to get out near the top of each of these 60 day cycle highs.
And that was something I repeated all the way to the top. And then pretty much from the first cycle that broke and that failed. I've been wanting members to be either hedging to be the out or to be shorting. And I showed a pretty much the entire move down and what you see in reverse in a bear market going down is that cycles a 60-day cycle. They move rapidly early in the cycle, but they top out very quickly. So in a downtrend. So the cycle, the four-year cycle tells me and helps me understand how the shorter timeframe cycle was more likely to perform. And what we see in this sort of bare market downtrend is that they, they rally fast at top, very early within say 10 or 15 days or 21 days. And those are the reps that you want to short in a bear market, in the bull market trend, you know, you want to buy the dips because it dips a short, they the fast, but they reversed quickly.
So you're buying the dips in the blue bar going up and you're selling the rips or the rallies in a bear market trend. So that's kind of the, um, analysis again, that I provide them. I hope you enjoyed this video. I want you. The main takeaway here is to understand where we sit right now in this entire process. We are right here again, this one to finish off the video with this note. We are right here if we're not at the low, will be at the low in February. I don't make guarantees, but I'm very comfortable and confident saying that we are very close to a significant point in bitcoins evolution where you don't want to be looking for exits and panic. You want to be looking at opportunity. Smart buyers get in at the sort of awareness and accumulation phase. All of a bull market, dumb money in retail gets in at the end of a move.
Smart money cells at the top of the move and dumb money cells at the bottom of a move. You have to decide who you want to be. If you made that mistake like many of you did on the last move where you got any late or you just held all the way through and we just sold all of it in this area, we just sold some very recently. That's fine. Learn from your mistake loan from the prior cycle and let the next cycle be your opportunity to really make a difference in your financial future.

Again, I hope you enjoyed this video. Be well and I'll come out with some more public content in the near future. Thank you.

 

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