Will we reach 90 k dollars for one Bitcoin in a 4-year period?
My goal here is not to provide advice. This is not advice, this is education. And I'm not saying that from a disclaimer standpoint. I'm not worried about that. I'm saying that because I don't post frequently enough on Youtube for me to even indicate what I might be doing on a short term basis. Treating is, you know, to active a fast paced process. And you know, if I say I'm doing something and then not be able to come back and inform you on changes to that outlook then and not doing any justice to you or anybody else. So I'm going to refrain from providing any direct type of, uh, you know, feedback or analysis on trading. You know, trading is one of those things where, you know, it's supposed to be a not a nonemotional type endeavor. And I've, you know, I've been known to have an opinion and a trade in a certain direction and the market reverse on me and then I'm, I'm capable of changing my analysis in my opinion very rapidly and not really caring about that.
And, uh, and being able to, in many cases take a trade in the opposite direction in the same given day. And for me, that is what sets apart good traders from average traders, average traders. Um, I so fixated on being right and having sort of the right analysis, um, pan out as opposed to a very successful trader who wants to have a strong opinion, but he's very willing to be wrong and accept being wrong because they only care about price in their trade and taking the next correct trade. Uh, whereas you know, the amateurs that were more like, oh no, that's, I really believe it's going to go up, or we believe it's going to go down and it's, it's going to do that for fundamental reasons or for some other biases that they may have and price goes against him and they just see they become stubborn, their position.
So I don't want to have a situation where I'm telling you one thing and then the next day market has changed and I'm already, I've already changed. I've already maybe flipped my position, but I can't then update youtube or anybody else on this channel, uh, in a timely manner or in a, in the correct manner. So I don't want to do that injustice to you. And second of all, I do, you know, belong obviously to another service which is a paid service. Not here to tell you to go buy that at all. But I'm just saying I have to also respect that process and those members as well. So I'm going to talk about short term analysis today, but I'm also good at just focus mostly on the longer term scenarios and more geared towards investors who are not susceptible, should not be susceptible to short term swings in price.
Now where I feel there is an opportunity in a clear opportunity in a short term trade, a standpoint, I won't use a video to cover that, but I'll use the community tab on youtube to maybe give you some ideas here and there. And it may not just be pick corn, it could be anything, could be gold, it could be stocks, it could be crude or could be some of the old coins as well. And if I do that, I'll post something in the community section with a chart and I'll basically spell out where I'll be wrong and where my stock would be. So in that case, even if I get stopped out or even if it, if the analysis changes, you wouldn't be left sort of saying, oh, scratching their head, well what is he doing? Or what could it be done? It'd be a simple one way trade idea or theme that I'll provide.
So, uh, that will only come in the community section of this channel. Make sure you subscribe so you can get alerts. Whenever I do post, I'll try and do one, maybe a week on that. So kind of give you a high level idea that is mostly on a daily or weekly chart that you can take advantage of perhaps or at least get an idea for you to formulate a an idea for how you train and fit that into your own style. I also went through some of the questions that you provided to me. I will cover some of those today. Most of those will be around the current cycle and then also the four year cycle. I will focus mostly on that for today and a lot of the questions were where are we in this current 60 day cycle? And that's an interesting question because right now we sit on day 23 of the 60 days cycle.
We have a short 53 day cycle back on February the sixth as I indicated in a previous video that was a bullish development because we spent 44 days declining from the December high to the cycle low without failing, meaning without dropping below the prior cycle in December. So the, the fact that it's been 44 days declining without exceeding the low of, of December, it was a bullish thing. And I did expect a little more say ommph out of this new 60 day cycle. And so far that really has not materialized. In fact, it's actually turning out to be a little more bearish denied that I had hoped for. Um, and I tell you why is because we spent 18 days so far retracing up to this point here on 24th of February that took 18 days. But if you look at the prior cycle, it started from a lower point and reached the same point that the day 18 high did.
And I did that over only nine days. So in nine days it covered, you know, x amount of territory in 18 days, double the amount of time. It only managed to get to the same point and form essentially a double top for the most part. Now when we had that Brazil, you know, slammed down the market this past weekend, it took me out of my long position. I had already cashed out a third, I think I, I posted kind of a community alert that I'd taken a third of the profit and let the rest ride. The rest was writing at a break even or slightly profitable standpoint. But when this slam came, I was out right in the bottom here. Pretty much knew the entry for the s two thirds of the remaining open position. And now we're kind of trending sideways. Now. Um, I like consolidations in an uptrend, they typically resolve with the direction of the trend.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
Same applies for a downtrend. So here's an example right here. Here's a downtrend. Here's a consolidation continuation, right? And that happens all the way down in trends. So, and the way up, we had this consolidation early in the cycle and then we continue to hire consolidation higher. So what I'm concerned about now is that we actually are already back in a downtrend. If you notice a 10 day moving average has turned, it's turned over. I do like to use the 10 day moving average to dictate short term trends. And right now, price has stayed five days below that 10 day moving average. And for me that's a bearish development. I don't like to see, I wouldn't mind seeing price drop as we saw right here below the 10 day moving average for a brief amount of time. But when we have consistently, when we consistency see five or six days as we are now below that 10 day marker for me that's a warning sign that uh, some trouble lies ahead.
So barring a kind of immediate rally from this point and it, and it's still possible that we get kind of another little move higher here, but really what I think is happening, and again, I don't like to focus too much on price. I'm a time based analyst and I'm using my time expectations to provide and formulate a view on where I think price might be heading. Um, but again, I never get married to price. I quickly and easily move back and forth between views, um, as price dictates. But what I think here is that this 18 day, hi, I'm not sure yet if this is the high for the next 60 days cycle, right? We have another such 60 day cycle jury in early April. Um, I don't know if this 18 day high will be the high point for that entire 60 day period, but I have a strong feeling now probably more than, well more than 50% that it will be. Um, but what, what I think first is happening is we're moving down into what's called the half cycle. So for a 60 day cycle is typically around 60 days. Around the mid point you get a dip generally. So I think for the first half of this cycle, we've seen the top day 18 is a top. So what I think we're going to see is now I moved back below this little cluster here, but to remain above this cluster that appear early in the cycle. So something down to maybe the $3,600 area. Okay.
And then it becomes really important to see what bitcoin wants to do once it forms at half cycle low. If it should rally out of that house cycle low, it should exceed whatever area we reach in the, in the coming day or two or three even. And I think it ends up in this sort of 4,000 to $4,100 area as a potential top for the second half of the 60 day cycle. So kind of, you know, making its way back up here, get everybody excited again, but fail to exceed this area. Then it begins what I hope will be just a re a slow grinding retracement. Um, all the way back to this area here and come to think of it, I think I've, I've drawn this a little too, too wide because that goes into May. So let's get up to sort of end of end of March, the 20th of March up to that point. The sharply come down.
And then sort of coming to this point here and then by around sort of mid April, come back down, either retest the cycle low in February, possibly even retest the December low all the way down in 3,100. Okay. And then in in sort of a really outlier type possibility do a and even deep a flush on really sort of high volume fast type of market all the way down to make a new price low but then shoot up really rapidly from that point.
Yeah. Personally I don't think we're going to break this December low. I think this December low may hold as the four year cycle low and I'll get into that in a little more detail coming up. I think the real takeaway here is that, and I described this in the four year cycle video that I did, even though we may have on should have a bear market low from a price perspective. Um, we still have to go through that accumulation phase in the new four year cycle where it just chops mostly sideways and really just, you know, whipsaw saws, traders in and out of position because he's just not ready to begin. Then next sort of bull phase, we need to absorb many more sellers in this area. We need to start to build a really nice deep base in Bitcoin and that typically will occur of a two, three and even four of the 60 day cycles, maybe over six months to even nine months, even up to a year perhaps of mostly grinding sideways, but over time begin to start forming these higher highs and higher lows and the cycles.
But we are still very sort of close or very near the current low for the bear market. And I don't think we're ready yet to start putting in significant higher heights. I think we still need to resolve this coming cycle. And I talked about this pretty clearly in the four year cycle that April was also potentially the four year cycle low for the bear market. Now that puts us slightly above or beyond the four year cycle in terms of camp, but that's fine. That happens and can happen all the time in cycles where you get sort of this 10% range on either end. Sometimes it's a shorter cycle, sometimes it's a longer cycle. So going out to April, in my opinion, were not, would not be an issue. And again, I've joined this a little, probably too far out. We probably want to move this even more here.
So the question is, so the takeaway is, I'm not sure if we get a price lower that's further down below the December law, but if we do, I think it's an account, a very fast sell off and in a rapid reversal. So that would be the new low scenario. The other possibilities I think is the higher possibility is that we get more of a double bottom and a retest and that would be a more of a slower type development. Um, and more of a grinding development over time. And that really wears at, at the, at the bowls at their patients, people who held on all the way and it managed to stick it out. Uh, or people who got really excited right here recently or in the previous cycle, um, who got back in and for them to see price drop all the way back down again.
And tests are the three 30, 330, $200 areas. That is a, it's punishing, right? It's, um, it's not something they expect and want to see. And that becomes currently a farm capitulations you don't really need necessarily brand new fresh lows to um, you know, to, to have that effect. Um, but I think, I think still think we need to get down to this one more cycle low. Um, and again that could come at a double bottom on the recent cycle or the prior cycle one before that. But again, I think we're coming back to retest this area in uh, in April some point now of course I'd be more than happy to be wrong on this. I'd be more than happy to see the December low stickers, the price low more than happy to see this cycle low be a higher low, which it is.
I've obviously confirmed. But then to see a development like this where we kind of go up half cycle and then, you know, we pop up rapidly and then form, you know, that cycle law higher, right? So somewhere, you know, towards the end of March, perhaps early April, something like this becoming at a higher price point and then moving up as well. This is a possibility. This for me would be confirmation of the bear market low who would have a series of higher highs. It's true that in and we'll have a series of higher lows and that for me would be the start of obviously the new four year cycle. It will confirm the bear market low in December and then we're having new trend high and then the next cycle from here can begin to start to recover and start to bang up against. If you go back here, Bang up against all these cycle lows that occurred in 2018 at the $6,000 area.
Yeah, that's $6,000 area is going to provide a significant amount of resistance for a very long time in my opinion, but we still need to worry about what's coming before that we're in. That's the base building accumulation phase. There's a lot of area, a lot of room still to fill in between this blow 3,100 area all the way back up to the $6,000 area and it's going to take over many cycles. You know, a process of backfilling and accumulation to get to the point where we can begin to attack the $6,000 range and test it multiple times before breaking hire for somebody asked me what's the probability of that Bitcoin has bottomed? Well, let me ask you a question then. Does it really matter at this point? I think where we are now sort of splitting hairs on whether or not we have a bottom in place.
The four year cycle has essentially run its course. Now, it may not be 100% behind us at this point, but if we do see further declines and a new price low, I can pretty much you that I believe, at least in my opinion. Of course, it's always my opinion that it will be very short lived. It'd be something similar to what we saw back in. Let's go back to 2015 here. So we had this, they had the four year cycle law, we had this chopping process, and then we had these candles here in August. Okay. Which was around eight months later. So three cycles later, significant capitulation and drops. I don't know on some charts, I think there was a new price lower, but clearly this is beyond an inch of the new four year cycle. But there was a scare right here. Okay. And this was kind of that final sell out before we v shaped and went higher.
And this is why I'm saying right now, not that I'm a fan of Algos and comparing price action from one cycle to the next. I like to focus on time. I think people fall into traps when they're trying to overlay charts from a different period with one and, and, and become very biased in how something should play out. Um, I'm just basically saying that if we do get a drop from this point, it's something similar to what we saw in 2015 there that it's going to be short live. It's a shakeout, right to shake out on an epic proportions. And we're not going to spend a lot of time down into that new low area. It's going to be short lived and it's going to really shake out the final, the final balls, you know, that just can't hold on any longer before reversing higher.
That would be the worst place to capitulate and sell. But it's also not the type of outlook way you should be sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in. Now, and I've said this many times, there's a difference between training. There's a difference between investing. If you're trading the daily chart matters a lot. What you see in the chart on the day, it matters how you trade week to week matters on the action of that week. I hour, that 60 day cycle. But if you're focused on where the bear market ended with PTC is bottomed, you're focusing on the wrong thing at the moment. Right now you should be fully allocated, fully committed to to whatever level you're comfortable with. Not trying to be, uh, you know, pick up pennies at this point. Who cares if it goes down briefly for no a thousand dollars. If you're upside target is a minimum of 20,000 back to the prior hires, or in my case where my target is, you know, is more like up into the, you know, 80 to $90,000 error based on the prior cycles and how they performed, who cares about $1,000.
Why would you miss the potential or the possibility, more likely to say of PTC, not really looking back from this point. And that's a possibility. Okay, we can break higher. We can test the $6,000 area. Okay? And it doesn't mean we're going to go into massive bull mode, but we may get a situation where we just start to grind and grind and grind. Okay? And if you're waiting for that $1,000 final drop, right? Just to get a little more BTC, then you're risking a potential 80, 60, $70,000 move to save $1,000. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Don't be afraid to get in at these levels. Okay? Uh, most people were, were afraid they're gonna miss out in the 6,000 and $8,000 area. Don't be afraid of this point. Bitcoin is down 85% from the highs and that could, you know, 14, 15 months ago.
Now, this is a very, very advanced bear market or most likely ended bear market and already into a new four year cycle. So, you know, I can't be any clearer than that on this people. I get this question so often that it's a reason why I'm really focusing on it here. If you're in this for the longterm, if you believe in Crypto, if you believe in Bitcoin, if you believe that this is going to be a disruptor to the financial system, then what the hell are you waiting for? Don't make the mistake of trying to save some here some money. Get your position, you'll be rewarded. If you're right. Now, there's a chance that this technology has already has already bubbled and top. I don't believe it, but there's always a chance, right? If you, if you say 100% that some incident happened 100%, then then you're setting yourself up for major failure in life and in trading and investing.
But as I believe that this is going to go much higher, um, there's no point, there's no argument right here that this is an amazing tar to beginning in. This is essentially a gift if you believe in the longterm narrative. Somebody in the comments section also asked me, it looks like this is early accumulation phase is a normal or possible for price to create a lower low in this phase and still considered accumulation phase? Yes, it is. You can get a massive amount of volume pushed down a bit coin at this point. It could be a sort of a manipulator trade. Um, but again, that's why I said if we do get a lower low, it's going to come on a very short timeframe. It could just happen over a one day or two day event where you get a massive selling pressure, massive sell in leverage longs, and then that gets pushed to a level where a significant amount of his demand and supply comes into the market.
The demand, I should say and pushes price back sharply once that either manipulation or that's selling volume is dried up. It's almost like a slingshot, right? It's just going to bounce right off the bottom and rapidly move higher. So that's that scenario. Don't go looking for or chasing it. If it happens, great. You may want to have some stink bids in there. So meaning you may have want to have some limit by orders in at maybe the 2,400 or $2,500 error in case it does reverse back down sharply. And maybe you can pick up some more bitcoin, but you know, don't, don't be concerned about making millions and millions and millions of dollars. I hear that as well quite a bit. People, people kind of extrapolate our, okay, so if it's going to go to 80,000 you know, and it's 3000 now and I can buy x amount, I'm going to be, you know, a multimillionaire.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
Don't, don't think like that. Think about getting into a position that's comfortable for you. That's not putting your uh, yeah, your family at risk, your livelihood at risk by enough where you know, yes, the, you've got some skin in the game, but when you're talking about a potential 100 x move or even even to 80,000, we were talking about a 30 or 40 x move. You don't need to put a lot of your risk into the market here to, uh, to take advantage of this. And people are like, well, you know, but if it's going to 70,000, you know, why not retire in three years? Right? One night, get to the point where I can make millions and millions, I can tell you why that's not going to work, so I'm going to work because you're not going to be able to hold for that long. Very few people know and a capable of holding and then selling near a top and cashing out and retiring on that private island that they're talking about.
It just doesn't really work that way. Why you're better off doing right now is mentally preparing yourself for what's coming over the next four years cycle. Getting yourself a comfortable position that you can ride higher over the next three or four years without worrying about, you know, whether that huge position, that proper position over time is something that's sustainable. Okay. Another strategy along that line is that you can set some profit targets for yourself. So you can put in, you know, sort of 100% of what you're going to allocate. Obviously you're 100% allocated. Now, for example, you can have some price targets and this actually to be honest with is what I'm doing. You could have a price target around the $15,000 area and you can say to yourself, well, you know, what's one possibility? One possibility is that 20,000 is the peak for Bitcoin.
Fullstop never going to go beyond. And that's kind of obviously a very bearish look, but it does cover some of the downside action. And I think what could happen is we could rally, rally rarely, rarely gets the point over the next few years. Okay. Towards the top of the four year cycle. Well, we don't get that massive new wave, a new cycle up to another 10 x or 20 x and that we only get maybe, you know, three quarters of the way back up up to 1617 18,000 or maybe even a double top k. So you want to be in a position where you want to take something off the table at some point. Okay. And that would easily cover your initial investment right now and leave you with a nice little profit, something that you can, you can reinvest into some other type of investment, whether it's a property or stocks or something else, but walking out feeling as if even though, even if it does top in the next four year cycle with getting the 20,000 that you've accomplished something, you've covered your risk from early on, you know, and you're walking away with it.
And the reason to for doing that is that once it gets above 20,000 if you've covered your initial investment, if you've taken some off the table and made a profit, then you have really strong hand status as I like to say. And that's going to allow you, um, with obviously the right mindset and the right training of your mind to be able to hold and really hold on. If, uh, you know, and I'm not using the right timescale necessarily right here cause 2020, it's going to be well, way too early for this delicious try and, and just very roughly draw something out, right? Let's just say we test 20, 20, 20,000 and we start to break higher at that point. Um, so it's gonna it's gonna be a difficult and it's gonna and it's going to get in the media, it's going to be talked about.
Again, a lot of people are going to start flowing in left, right and center and if you have a position that's already essentially paid for you going to be able to ride this higher and you're going to be ahead of everybody else because people are going to be starting to add to their positions in this area here. They're going to stop buying in this area. They're going to be fresh and new buyers in this area in a $20,000 area. Like there was a fresh new buyers in the 3000 to 5,000 the eight thousand twelve thousand dollar area in 2017 even though there may have been looking at it from for years, but you know there's nothing like higher prices, new all time highs, you know the people talking about it in the hair salon and everywhere else. COUPA creating demand. That's how speculative demand is created. You want to be by the time it gets to that point well and truly in the profit well and truly cashed out and riding with the, with the house's money so to speak.
And then you want to have an enterprise target, probably some around the maybe the 40 to $50,000 area where you're banking some serious coin. Okay? And that's going to also allow you, again the same type of thing. You're going to profit from here, you're not going to get too greedy. And this type of profit up in the 30 to $40,000 area would be the one that really makes you set, set you up for a while, makes you pretty comfortable. But it's also then lastly going to allow you the opportunity to potentially realize the really big profits that could come at the end of the four year cycle. And again, could, if I'm using those words purposely, because I don't want people to just think about this as if it's the easiest get rich scheme. There is, it's not. And the reason why, again, it's not, it's because did you all cash out at 18, 19 20,000?
I bet you 99% of you did not. Um, so being, having a game plan coming into this, and obviously there's a lot of time left before then, but having a game plan for how you're going to hold, not just I'm a wholesaler, I'm a hurdler, it's people saying that, well, you're a huddle or then you're going to huddle all the way to 100,000 and then you gotta Harlow all the way back to 25,000 or 28,000 when the next bear market comes along because you don't have a plan necessarily on how you're going to essentially capture the gains of the next four years cycle. And that's just one strategy I think is going to help you is have a couple of these intermediate timeframe and price targets there. They're going to allow you to capture the gains and eventually ride to the top one. I'm not exactly the price that the, the the actual top tick tick price, but at least get to a point where you're capturing 80 to 90% of the gains of the next cycle and then that's how you really take advantage of what the four year cycle potential can provide you.
Some of my friends in closing, I just want to say keep your eyes on the prize. Always think of why you got into this, what your goals and objectives are. When you look at the long term picture of the longterm possibility, are you focusing on the wrong or the right things? The wrong things are looking at this current action trying to find the absolute bottom, trying to pick the bottom perfectly. China understand what certain technical indicators are telling you, whether they're Elliott waves or whether the clouds or whether they are a size or it doesn't really matter in the end. In the end, it's all about the price. It's all about the time. And we are now in that sort of golden opportunity area. Um, and just in required, you know, patience and perseverance and a lot more patients. Again, patients, patients, patients. I can't emphasize enough how important patients and people become impatient when they start thinking dollar signs or euro signs.
There were any other currency that you like, uh, when they start only focusing on the profit potential, you lose sight of the plan and the process. Once you lose sight of the plan, the process, you cannot take advantage of the eventual price gains that are going to come. So keep that in mind. I'm gonna, I'm gonna throw out all the videos going forward, continuously emphasize that I want to make this a journey, a four year cycle journey with you and I want you to come along with the ride and I want to come out the other end of it. Um, having execute on the process and a plan and let the gains hopefully come with it. Thank you very much. If you liked this video, of course. Give it a like, give me a follow, share it on Youtube, so share it on Twitter and Facebook. Anywhere else that would help. I would appreciate that. Don't ask anything else if you, I do. Thank you for watching and I wish you all the very best.