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Will Bitcoin retrace more, or is it the end of correction? When to buy Bitcoin if I want to catch the lowest point?

It's been about three weeks since my last video and a lot has happened since then. I've, I mean bitcoin managed to get almost all the way up to a very surprising at least uprising for this early on in the four year journey up to almost 14,000 I think once it hit a that 1213 then up to forwards 14,000 we really started to have a for the first time kind of a bit of Fomo across the board. I think for the first time also we had some retail and by retail I mean just everyday folks, right? Many of you as well kind of get concerned or jump right in thinking that they had missed the opportunity and really threw in the towel and started buying bitcoin here and a little more size and a little more leverage. And whenever that happens, of course we know that the move when you sort of move, whether it's a short term, intermediate term, we've been longterm move is probably more towards the tail end of the move.

 

And I think what has happened here is that finally this move, this beautiful move that started back in February is probably now over this intermediate term trend. This four month rally has gone further than I believe, almost anybody expected. Um, I was not surprised by the move, but it has gone. S it did certainly go further than I expected. And uh, why wouldn't, why wouldn't that be the case? It was up by over 300% of the lows. Um, but also another reason why I continuously on this youtube channel said to not lose your position, do not sell into that early on because when bitcoin gets going like this, there's just no telling how far it would go. Now we have kind of an ugly decline here. Look at this. This is a, you know, some of you are scared. I can see it by the messages and the questions and the emails and the messages.

We a down a pretty significant 34.6% of the top and many of you considering selling. And um, you know, that's, um, that's unfortunate. I think many of you though are not going to sell. Many of you have now loaned the lesson of a losing position in a bull market and not trying to time the market from a huddle standpoint. Traders are a different story, right? I mean, I, I was short last this week and last week at certain points I've been long at seven points. Trading is different from huddling. He, again, you have to ask yourself what is it that you want to do, how you want to, how you want to trade or invest this market and stick to it. If you need to separate your accounts to look at this from different perspectives and do so, right? We have, I have a trading account for that reason and I have a Tresor that I don't touch and don't look at it for that reason as well.

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Each have different objectives and each, um, when I consider each of those investments separately, I look at those from a different timeframe. When I'm looking at my four year cycle portfolio, the model portfolio on the website, I'm looking at weekly and monthly charts only when I'm trading and I'm trading futures, I'm looking at a four hour chart, a daily chart, for example, totally different objectives. This video is about the huddle and the longterm. And I have a daily chart up here, so I'm just trying to point out the fact that 34% decline. Yeah, it's significant. But consider this, my last video was three weeks ago on June the 21st that's when it was published. So I'm going to zoom out a little bit here and let's go find June 21st well, okay, June 20th oh here it is right here. Price was at at the open at a 9,530 so we're down 34% and bitcoin is above the price of my last video.

So do you get the irony there? Alright, so people are scared and panicking about selling here on a 34% decline. But Oh, what's happening is that bitcoin has retraced to a point where it was only three weeks ago. So the, the catch or the key here is that you can't time these swings successfully. And that's the reason why we don't in a bull market want to lose our position. Um, especially on a decline. If you feel at any given time that you have too much leverage on or you have too much bitcoin, then choose a time when bitcoin is outside of the daily Ballinger band. See how on a run, here's another one here. Price stays outside of the bollinger bands. That is an overbought situation and after around about six to 10 bars, it's likely or more likely that we're going to have a short term or intermediate term top sell one of those.

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Okay? You most likely can deal to get a good price. At least it's not going to be, um, you know, the top. Um, and of course, you know, it's going to continue higher in a bull market, but you know, if you're looking at getting out, that's the only time, in my opinion, acceptable when you've got just too much leverage for whatever reason. Okay, you want to get some off the table. But in the bull market, what we look to do is we look to buy dips, okay? We don't panic on dips in the past. I think many of you have fallen victim to, to, you know, the, the emotional aspect of money and what it means to you from a paper portfolio perspective. And you're looking at your, your, your portfolio balance on a daily or intraday basis. And when you see a 30% decline, um, it's, it's impactful, right?

And you panic and you get scared and you think, wow, you know, I had, I had 20,000 worth of Bitcoin the other day and now I have 14,000 for example. But you do forget the fact that you only had 14,003 weeks ago as well. Um, you know, we kind of fool ourselves as humans like that. We get greedy and we look at the most normal or the highest normal profit paper profit that we had at one point. And we start to expect more and more and more, even though you know, we're up 300% off the bottom, many of you following me here, got in around the 3000, 600 or 700 level or the 4,500 or even the 6,000 level. It's still up 50, 70, a hundred, even more than 150%. Um, but yet your mind is focusing on a 30% decline as opposed to a, the fact that it did 60% rallies numerous times throughout this whole process.

So again, what's important is that in the bull market, we look at declines like this as opportunity. Now, personally, I'm not, uh, I'm not looking at this as an opportunity because I already have a full position. I'm comfortable with that. I'm willing to risk for the long term. And this to me doesn't phase me. But if I was somebody sidelined who for whatever reason couldn't get their position, didn't, didn't, couldn't turn themselves around or couldn't get themselves to buy the rally because they felt it got too out of hand, you know, not me. Opportunities like this will exist now can be coined for further. Of course, absolutely. You know, we're not perfect timers of the market. If you will perfect time as of the market, then you would be in a position at exactly 3,200 or so, but you're not right. I mean, I'm a hopefully your own, you're in the 37 or 44 55 level, but many of you are not.

Many of you are still looking to get in. So stop thinking that you can time this market, put your emotions aside and say to yourself, well, hey, 34% decline in a, in a bull trend is not a bad opportunity and be content with that. I've, I've, I've used those words many times over the last four years, a former four months. Be content with your position, with your entry and keep, keep in mind the fact that we're looking at a very longterm investment and we're looking at, you know, multiple, multiple fold increase in value over that time and stop playing around with 10% 15% where we're looking at 300 to 3000% increase over the course of this four year cycle. So that's being said. Um, again, I think if you've been waiting, I wouldn't wait too much longer if I was you again, be content with price, but also we all need to be mindful of the fact that in investing, um, markets to move to extremes and we've had an extreme move to the upside.

There's no disputing that very few people can accurately predict any type of move like this. This thing is a very steep move over, you know, 20 odd weeks for five months and it's bound to an at some point now we just don't know when, but we need to also from the um, sentiment or from the sort of the, the mind level setting standpoint, we need to be mindful that even though we've had a 33% decline, we could be looking at a chopping period to come or we could be even looking at further downside. Actually now I strongly, and I mean strongly feel that this level here roundabout the 6,500 level is an absolute worst case floor for the market to um, you know, to go, uh, to stay above, uh, I this area where it started dropping back in November, I don't think it's revisited personally.

Also in a bull trend or new four year cycle to see a decline of the magnitude of, uh, 53 55% is a, I wouldn't say unheard of, but, um, if it was to do that, I think it would do that on a very, very big capitulation on an intro day or maybe over a couple days, um, of a couple of days and then bounce sharply higher. So I think I'm just, I'm just level setting for you right here. I'm looking at worst case scenarios. These aren't scenarios where you wait to get your position and say, Hey, you know, why would I buy now when I can get a 65 or 68, I'm just level setting here because I don't know. Right. I mean, when you're looking for the longterm, you have to be content with the market in the short term and that's, you know, as gyrations and it's ebb and flow.

We don't know where it's going to go. Like we didn't know on the way up. You know, I thought, and you look at my previous videos, right? Um, I did talk about it a couple of times. The possibility that that bitcoin could just go straight up. Right? But that wasn't my prime expectation. My expectation was get your position here. And I think it, it gets caught at some resistance around the 6,400 era. And I thought it would chop around this area in the summer and not until maybe August start to begin to break out of this 6,500 area and began its way up over the next six months from there towards the $20,000 area. It did this much sooner than I expected. So what I'm outlining right now on the, on the flip side of this is that it may do something that I'm not expecting.

We need to be prepared for that. And the reason for that is if we are not prepared for a sharp down client declined at this point, we are susceptible to dumping all of our position on a massive decline based on the fear that it's all over or that, um, there's some, some Elliot wave, uh, type, uh, analysis out there that's saying bitcoin's gonna go back below 3000 or something silly like that or that I'm in the u s government's gonna basically banned bitcoin and, and it's all over any one of those narratives. And I look, we're in this for the long haul. There are many threats, there are many narratives out there that can be bearish and that will come along and they will drive price down low on the short term. And we need to be prepared for those. We can't take only the good, we can't take only the rallies engine choose to, you know, turn a blind eye to the possibility of declines.

They will come and when they come, the mindset needs to be that this is just part of the process. This is part of investing. This is part of investing in a very volatile and essentially new technology and asset class and there will be massive swings. Like there was an 85% decline in a bear market. Even in a bull market, you can get 40% even 45% declines from the top right at any given point. And we need to be prepared for that. And what we need to be saying to ourselves is that, that's fine. Okay, I can live with that. And maybe you're saying to yourself, well, I don't have a big enough position, right? You don't have that. So 10% of net worth or 15% whatever your number is, maybe this is now the time I buy. So you buying strategically, you buying on the dips or your dollar cost averaging, maybe not on a schedule, but on every 20% decline for example, or every 30% decline.

You're saying to yourself, that's my trigger to add some more bitcoin to my account. Something like that. So you're being smart about your purchases. You're buying on weakness in a bull market or a new four year cycle and you're not panicking because when you panic and sell a massive decline, I can tell you what's gonna happen. You're gonna, you're too passionate about bitcoin and crypto. You love this space. That's why you're in it, but when you dump your coin, we'd dump a big portion of it out of fear and then it reverses higher and everyone gets excited again. What do you do? You start to kick yourself. You've done this before. I know you start to kick yourself and you start to say, damn it, it's actually going higher like we thought it was. How can I be so foolish to jump jaw, drop my position and then you're going to buy it back later at 30% higher, 40% in effect, what you've done is you've reduced you actual bitcoin size significantly because you thought you were protecting yourself, but all you're doing was panicking and running and fearing the market, so forget where it's going.

Stop asking me where I think the bottom is. I don't know exactly where the bottom Bitcoin is.

Right? Um, I can, I can trade this market on the short term and it can be pretty successful at doing that, but from a longer term perspective, right. I respect trends and I kept saying respect this trend, respect this trend that we had a nice accumulations phase here in March. [inaudible] this was for me, the absolute confirming candle. I said that in a video in April that we should all get in if you have not already. This flag here led to another move and then this sideways consolidation, another move. Now we could be triggering a step down process. Again, I don't know. I respect the trend. The trend in general has been higher, so respected at going up now on the downside, I'm going to respect the fact that that a bitcoin could be going through a period of consolidation.

I'm going to be patient about that. Ideally what I want to see or what I think we could see now, I'm going to see if I can try and draw this in a little bit on this chart for you. So we've got this lineup here all time highs. I talked about consolidation down in this area here before moving higher. Maybe we get that chop in that consolidation now in this area here. So the boundaries could be something like, and again this is just me almost thinking out loud in the end it's pretty much irrelevant to the longterm cause, but I think it helps level set again and instead of expectations for what could happen. But let's just say a 40% decline from the recent high. Okay. So we could be looking now over the next, let's call it two 60 day cycles. Okay. A, so we have a new 60 day cycle I think in place right now.

We could be looking at another move higher and then we find a low at that 40% level. Then we rally up again. Okay, let me come back down and kind of retest it. Maybe we formed kind of an inverted head and shoulders with shoulder, shoulder and the heading them here. And then, you know, it's not until maybe November now, we may not see any action for full for three, four months. Be prepared for that. Um, I think this bull market needs to find, um, uh, needs to build more of a foundation now that we've had this recognition move here. I believe, and again at pure opinion on my behalf, I believe here because retail with not so involved here, I believe we had a supply, a constraint on supply and a massive demand event from more of your introduce institutional players driving our price. But I think now we've reached a price where people want to call off and people don't want to drive this, um, you know, investors institution don't want to drive this any higher at the moment.

I think we need a period of profit-taking consolidation and then some more accumulation where it then drives the price higher again and then we start to see a move and a discovery up towards the 20,000 area where I think we get some, of course some more resistance up at that level. Again, just lines on the chart, right? Your interested in your concerned with the longterm and my goal here, or at least my objective in this is not to, not to talk price up. I think bitcoin's going to a certain place I've, I've described the Y, but my job here is to make sure that you don't puke your position or lose your position and also to buy and not to pay or over pay when you don't need to. If you're buying continuously on the pump or not, not so much the pump, but if you're buying after say four green candles in a row, then you just chasing the market and you're allowing all the news and the social media fee to get to you and then you're overleveraging, you're buying too much, you're panicking.

Then on the couple of red candles, you're doing a backwards. You're doing it wrong, right? Get smart about this. Become a smart investor and buy the dips when there are, when the opportunities come and do not panic. All right. I'm going to leave you with just the monthly chart. I think it's important always to go back to the main objective. I think as a hustler, the monthly chart should be the chart of choice. It removes all the noise and it, uh, it just, it just aligns perfectly with your longterm goal. And when you're looking at monthly chart going back, uh, eight years or nine years here, I think this cleanly and clearly sets, uh, the direct trajectory in the trend. And we, we are writing this type of trend, right? So in general, um, you know, we avoided much of this, this bear market we're in now, in this bottom here, look at the separation here that we have between the 10 month and 10 months is a long time, but there's 10 month moving average and price, right?

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When you see such separation, uh, that's, that means you and you now at the depths of a bear market, you saw it right here and you saw it right here. Those are buying opportunities essentially. The reason why I said uh, back in December originally and that video that even though I don't know if the price is the absolute lowest, I think this is the time to buy and now we're above a rising 10 month moving average and you look at the moving average. Once it begins that swing, it doesn't turn back right until the peak. And I don't mean that, I mean short term or intermediate term, I mean the longterm bull market peak, that's when you see a downturn or a top in the trend line. Now we do have some separation between price and the 10 week moving average on the I high side.

I think that suggests that we do need some of that consolidation that I talked about. I think we need to bring a price closer back to that 10 week, 10 month moving average. And I think that's what we're going to see now over the next couple of 60 day cycles. So meaning the next three or four months we could be looking at a mostly sideways move like this and then we see a catch up of the 10 month moving average. I don't even think we touch the 10 week moving average price, but we get close to it and then come by, come to December, we can and then maybe even February we'll make that move up towards the $20,000 all time high. Maybe again, we find some stiff resistance at that level and then 2020, we begin the breakout and we begin to go. That's how I see it.

I don't think much of that outlook has changed. The only thing that's changed from four months ago is how quickly we got above that 10 month moving average. Overall, still a votive bullish chart. I think. Um, I don't think anything from a longterm perspective has changed. The narrative has not changed. The evidence has not changed and therefore my investment has not changed. And I see no reason why I should change. This has been a four year cycle update. You can leave any comments. You can please like the video if you indeed you do like it and share it anywhere you like on social media. Appreciate your time, appreciate you listening to the video and I wish you all the best.

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