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Let's talk about the path to 200,000 bitcoin. Uh, I don't want to spend too much time going over why I believe we're getting go to 200,000 and this cycle or possibly above that.

That is clearly covered in the four year cycle videos that I just mentioned before. Again, if you, uh, need to know, want to know why cover, go over those videos again and you'd get a fairly good sense in an idea for, for my views on that. But very quickly, the four year cycle spans a price action from one major load to the next major low. And I have it mocked starting back in the 2011 timeframe because that is essentially when people would began to transact in bitcoin and we had some true price discovery. We did not have true price discovery in 2010 as evidenced by the 10,000 Bitcoin for pizza, for example.

 

But there really wasn't any rural exchanges on board there. There was no real onboarding for fear to bitcoin. It wasn't until 2011 that we began to have some real price discovery. And that's when you saw bitcoin get up above the $1 mark and go higher. From that point, we had 142 weeks to the first real big bubble top in 2013 at that sort of 1100 or 1200 price range. And then we had a 58 week, Bam, 58 week Bam market decline into the first real major, uh, 85% decline even though we had one here as well early in that cycle. But this was the first real mainstream decline into the, uh, the, the 2015 lows there. That was the end of the first four year cycle in bitcoin hundred 42 weeks up, 58 weeks down exactly 200 weeks or 200 bars here on a weekly, almost four years, followed by a flat or, uh, sort of, um, sort of foundation building base here and then a slow and then, um, became rapid bull market, uh, climb over a 153 week period, which is just shy of three years, hundred 53 bars higher to the top in 2017.

Uh, of course, most of us were around for that. And then we had a subsequent 52 week ban. Maka so similar structure again, the next four year cycle where we came up for 153 weeks down 52 for a total of 205 weekly Baas. And of course in a four year cycle you have 208 weekly bars. So both of these closely resembled a four year cycle pattern. And I think what's important here is to understand that um, although I am, I am predicting price in the cycle, I am not trying to predict when that topic coes and when it happens. Um, in cycles we focus more on time and not so much on price. I'm using prior price action and price behavior and the prior two cycles to predict a price. But I'm really more about time and I'm really more about cycle lows and major lows because cycles are measured from low to low.

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So if we look at the end here, uh, of the bear market and the end of the bear market, the four year period between one, two, and then act three, pretty much the cycles are telling us that we're not going to have another cycle loan until late 2022. That's when I expect the end of the next bear market low to occur. But what happens in between really is, um, is something that, uh, I think nobody really knows. And as the market matures and as the technology grows, that adoption, uh, hopefully begins to grow. And mainstream attention comes into play here and maybe an ETF gets approved, um, where the top of the cycle occurs will vary and will change. But what should not change is where that low occurs. So the cycles don't change. I hear a lot of people talking about how the cycles are gonna shorten or they're going to lengthen for whatever reason.

And I can tell you now that they won't, they just don't. In cycles where the price high occurs can certainly change. And I'll cover that in the last point where I talk about a possible left translated cycle. Left translated cycle means that the top occurs before the midpoint of the four year cycle and I'll get into that again like I said earlier, but right now if we look at the prior two cycles, what we can say is if the market structure remains similar then we have mostly a three year period up. So three steps up, one step down structure to the four year cycle and it's within this cycle low in December and the projected time of a top and around about the October timeframe in 2021 that anywhere between those two points is I expect price to move higher and hit that target of around about the 200 to $250,000 price range.

That $250,000 price range is roughly a 10 x move from the highs set in 2017. Same as this move here was a Tenex move set actually was closer to a 20th move set from the highs of the um, of the bull market of the prior four year cycle. So again, no real science or definitive science behind that just to guide on price action. But you can also on a log scale here kind of drawer in, you know, sort of a projection here, right? Like I lined a mean line. So as the bull market goes higher, obviously a stretch stretches way, way beyond the, the uh, the mean and the bollinger bands extend and then the bear market decline brings it back to Earth, back down to or to Maine. Then we rise along, that mean for a while and then of course we extend higher again.

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But you know exactly where this mean line exactly is, is obviously hard to determine. But you get the general idea that the trend over time for this technology, which is still in the early phase of its adoption is following this type of trajectory. So there's a lot of price evidence over the past couple of four year cycles that tell us that bitcoin is heading up into this area. Um, and of course from a market cap standpoint, you know, we're still talking about bitcoin and around about three, I think it is three to half, 4 trillion at the most at that 250 or $200,000 level. And it's at that level or at that point where I feel bitcoin probably has much more of an interesting value at this point into the adoption. And we may even see after that, and I'm not going to touch on it today, but we may even see after that a four year cycle that goes from 2022 to 2026 that doesn't perform like this that performs, um, uh, in, in a more of a sort of a sideways emotion for the overall technology to kind of an adoption to catch up.

But that's, that's a topic for another day. I think when you look at gold at 8 trillion in market cap, getting bitcoin up to kind of that three to 4 trillion market cap by 20 2122, I think makes a lot of sense, at least to me. And, uh, I think this is where bitcoin is headed now. How does it get there is the question. I think a lot of people, uh, are obsessed with the intermediate timeframe, price action when they claim to be a huddler or a longterm investor and that, and that's just natural for any human to, um, be impatient and to be greedy, I guess. And to really, uh, try and validate that bias that, that we are going to get to the $200,000 price range and they need to focus on the price action in the short term to help them, um, feel comfortable and confident that we are gonna eventually get there.

But I'm going to talk about how that is not the right strategy, um, to have as a longterm hotline. Now I have my personal views on how I think price eventually gets up to this level over the next, you know, 18 months to 24 months and I don't think we break out of that $20,000 price range until, you know, until next year, some point. So another four or five months of possibly going somewhat sideways before we get up, test this area and then eventually break out. And once we do break out and it attained a lot more media attention and people start really getting in, then we can begin to accelerate those gains up to that point. But for a hot low, it really doesn't matter. It shouldn't matter because if you do recall in my four year cycle videos, um, that's not what I thought would happen from this point.

I actually thought we would get more of a structure like we had here were built more of a base, so something more like this and right. So it would have this kind of path, which ultimately goes to the same point, but it spent much more time building a base between this sort of 3,260 500 range, then broke out and then filled the gap between that 6,500 to $20,000 range. And the third, third phase was going higher. So I'm going to zoom in here, but there are other alternatives as well. Um, you know, we could quite easily continue this move higher smash 20,000 in 2019, uh, you know, get up to sort of $50,000 range by the end of the year. I mean, if you look at a trajectory, um, from where it's been so far where it's gone so far, this is the Blue Line here. Um, you know, it can get there.

It has the ability to do that. So what's my point? My point is that I am, uh, I'm not, not sure Dharmas myself. Um, I'm giving you a time based view on bitcoin and I'm looking at the price cycle, price action behavior and, and telling you that you should be huddling here and not be worried about those. Um, you know, those short term moves because when you focus too much on the short term moves, um, you begin to then second guess the huddle strategy or you begin to get greedy and start to think that, uh, you're smarter than just holding for the next three years that you can actually, um, sort of obtain even greater gains by market timing of the, the intermediate time frame. And I'm not talking about trading, we all know that unless you're a professional trader or somebody that's really focused on improving your trading skills, that that's not gonna beat a whole strategy.

I'm talking about those so-called active investors who think they can probably, you know, sell out a on, on short term tops by a 30% drop and so on. And I think it's been very clear and I know it's clear from the comments that many of you try to do that throughout this. Uh, let me just zoom in here throughout this move higher here and it didn't work for you right here it is. It didn't work for you. Um, even when it got up to 5,500 rapidly, I know people got out and said I'm taking some profit. I'm going to buy back in at 3000 or 4,000. It didn't happen. And then we had this massive April move and again, some people got out right here at this seven, 8,000. Many did actually in this point here. And then we had a very brief pullback and then a shot up to 14,000 and so many of you got out here, didn't buy back in cause you couldn't buy back in.

You are locked out of that move. And then you could pitch, you're limited in the sense that your foam mode into buying at the 10 11, $12,000 range. I'm missing out on that whole $4,000 move, essentially reducing your bitcoin stash. The amount of bitcoin you had cause you're worried has gone straight to 20,000 and then it pulled all the way back to 9,000, and here you were, um, kind of like losing money, you know, you're losing money on certain portion of your portfolio. My point here is that we're going to continue to see that we're going to continue to see 30% declines in the market, 40% declines. They're going to be natural and normal because when you look at the bull market here and the one before that, all these cycle lows and these cycles or the 60 day cycles, all of these were pretty much 30% decliners.

So if you're going to try and time these 30% or a hundred percent rallies and 30% declines, I can almost guarantee you that you're going to miss one or two of these. And if you miss one big one like this, it's going to cost you daily. It's going to cost you dealing in terms of your overall portfolio value. And of course the amount of bitcoin that you have. A, you're not going to be smart enough to, um, be as be an active investor in this, in this space. Some of you might be able to be, I can guarantee you that most of you will not be able to do that. But more importantly, why the hell do you want to, I mean, how agree do you want to get when you go is a 200 to $250,000 bitcoin price. Again, I'm not guaranteeing that in any way, shape or form, but if the goal is to get to 200,000, then that's enough, right?

We're at 10,000 right now and we're talking about a, you know, a 25, uh, x move up to that level. Isn't that enough? I mean, at $10,000 investment right now, I was going to be worth 250,000 at that point. If we get to that level, why complicate the strategy? Why try and obtain more out of it when, um, that those types of returns are pretty much unheard of in the history of your investing in any asset class. So you have an opportunity right in front of you here and you have a clear path and a narrative that has some evidence behind it. Um, I just want to tell you that there's an obsession with short term price here that, um, is, is coming out of the need to get more out of this or, or you greeting to get more out of this when really you should be saying to myself yourself, hey, I want to be at 200,000 bitcoin with most of my bitcoin preserved and I want to be able to cash out a lot of them at the next market top.

And I want to be able to walk away from this without any regrets and that you execute on a plan that you saw early on and you, uh, you held through to the end. Um, too many stories of people getting, um, shaking out of position and then never been able to buy back in. If we get a massive move like this one here, like this projectory here and you've gone out because you want to lower price, you want a couple thousand dollars low price, you may miss out on $100,000 move. It really can happen. It actually already happened right here and I outlined this in one of my videos. This was not my primary expectation to get to $14,000 by the summer. It just wasn't. But I clearly showed in one of my videos that that was a possibility. Just like this was a possibility here. And I said, you don't want to be a market timing and getting cute on price because this could happen.

If it does happen, you'd be locked out. And that's exactly what happened. So focus on the psychology and the goal that we have in front of us. I keep harping on the goal because that is should be from a smart hollered standpoint, the primary objective and the primary focus that you have in this entire timeframe. And yes, it's slow and it's boring, but who cares? This is the goal that we have outlined and this if we can execute or pay off handsomely for you and your family. In fact, I have a video dedicated to this topic in uh, in the channel library. I believe it's called a process and a discipline. Please go and watch that. It's very important. It talks about the entire process and discipline that hod does need to have and we need to get away from that trader's mentality even when it comes to sort of actively looking at the day to day and week to week price fluctuations.

Please go and watch that. I think it's very important for you and it certainly would help. All right, let's end with the left translated, uh, cycle possibility. So what do we have here? So originally I thought we would, we would trade under the 10 week moving average for a considerable amount of time, build a base, kind of similar to what we saw here in, um, in, in this bull market where early on, you know, we trended sideways mostly and then we broke out of that broke above the 10 week moving average. I like the 10 week moving average for sort of intermediate and longterm trend basis in general. In a bear market, you're trending below a 10 week moving average in a bull market. You're essentially trading above that were already willow truly above that. And the separation between the 10 week and price tells me that maybe something else is going on.

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Certainly not this type of price structure and this was something that everybody on social media was talking about for the longest period of time. Um, and that is not the model that we're looking at right now. I think [inaudible] we are looking more and more like kind of what we saw here in this 2011, 2012 timeframe where we came down, you know, we formed this low, we broke above the 10 week moving average and look, if you look at this August timeframe here in 2012, it pretty much came close. Uh, I was 50% below but it came close to where it traded just for one given month. And if I go to a weekly as well, you would see that it traded only up into this in this sort of 50, 30 area for a couple of weeks. So there wasn't much price discovery at that point. And then similar to this one candle, he, I feel look at this one thing can with December, if you go back to the November candle, k the high is only 11,300.

So we've already taken out the high, the highest set in November, just weeks before the top. So you really have very little legitimate, that's called legitimate price discovery price action above that $10,000 range from 2017. So for all intensive purposes, even though we know we'll sort of $6,000, which is considerable amount, um, below the peak, um, we've traded in this sort of 10 to $13,000 range for far greater period of time than we did in 2017. So in some ways, we're already at kind of that double top period. We're already at that testing of the all time highs level. Even though from a nominal price standpoint, we're not that close to it. So to me it looks like we may even be flagging on a monthly kind of how we flagged sideways here for three months. And if you look at the duration of, of this period here, we're pretty much at the same duration right here.

Um, allowing for price to maybe come closer to the 10 week moving average and then move higher. So, so we could be looking at a situation where, you know, for the next month, let's call it into September, there's a 60 day cycle load juror in mid September we could get a flush down towards the 10 week moving average, uh, maybe a move as low as 65, 6,800 and then that would serve to, to really shake you out. Uh, some of the Bulls here that are on the shaky territory, um, obviously I don't think we get anywhere near the lows. I think it's crazy that some people are still talking about fresh, new lows, retest of the lows. Those are behind us. I think if we get anywhere near those levels, then you can pretty much kiss bitcoin could buy, so to speak. Um, I think we get a dropdown perhaps.

Uh, and then we come back up and test the $20,000 level in December even, and then even break out by January and just go and use a high kind of have this trajectory that we have here. We had these massive candles and get up to that 200 to 200 and say 30 $40,000 level by the summer. So just just 12 months from this point, a straight shot up. So there's still the same type of price action that I was talked about earlier. But getting there in a much shorter timeframe game, they're in the one year shorter timeframe and then from a four year cycle standpoint, it doesn't change where the next big low would come from in a say late 2022 it just, it just changes where the top comes in that four year cycle. So where we talked about before, seeing three years up, one year down, three years up, one year down, we'll see something like two years up and then two years down to the cycle and how a whole host of reasons why that that might happen.

But, um, we are seeing a foster adoption in some of the institutional money and space. We also have the price structure right here. How it got way above a 10 week moving average. So quickly tells me that we may be seeing a massive run like that. And um, you know, and why am I top belly simply because once we get up to this hundred thousand dollar plus level, I think the level of retail involvement is going to, or involvement's gonna go through the roof. I think a lot of people are going to be, um, focusing on bitcoin and selling the regulators and government parties are going to be, I think all over this. I think the next big threat for bitcoin that may actually induce more of a, uh, more of a bad market than we've seen in the past is probably going to be the response from regulators and the pushback that we're going to see.

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It's not something that kills Bitcoin, but I think from a threat standpoint, it's one that we have not yet fully appreciated in the market. We'll appreciate it once regulators come out hard against something like this. So we could see a move up to this sort of still to the $200,000 level, then your traditional college crash, a bounce back up, right, get people excited again. But of course that fails and then you get this sort of winding action down and again, still looking at that. Um, 2022 area, and I'm not drawing this, you know, perfectly of course, but 20, 22 area and then maybe a move down to say 34 $40,000 range. I'm not sure exactly where the number would be, but the 30 to $40,000 range looks, um, looks like a valid area for the next big four year cycle. Low is true for a number of reasons, but the main reason is that bitcoin has shown us the ability to decline around about 80 to 85 87% in a, in a bad market.

And if we have a two year period of decline at plenty of time for price to get down that far. And then if you look at kind of a, this is call it, that might be chopped, the mystic [inaudible] go from a $238,000 level and we decline 85%. Then you're looking, oh, there you go. Right at 34,000. So 85% decline from a $230,000 level gets us around the $34,000 hour and that would mirror past four year cycle declines. A difference being here in a left translated cycle standpoint is that, um, we had that top much earlier. So let's, um, dissect this a little more. Uh, here's a cycle lower four years cycle low.

I'm going to draw the next four years cycle low right here. Okay, so what is a Lyft translator cycle means? So if we grab another color, the mid point and it's not going to be perfect, let's just say that's the mid point. The top here in the cycle occurred well right of, and I do have videos on this in the channel. So the top here code a code well past the mid point and that allows for price to uh, spend more time and going higher and naturally you get this price increase and less time going lower. I think in this case you get a lift translated cycle that occurs left of the middle, okay? And here's the next cycle, low 20, 22.

Okay, so, uh, here's the mid point roughly around there and that that top occurs left at that traditionally. One caveat here traditionally is when you see a left translated cycle, because there is less time going higher and more time going lower to the next 40 cycle at four year cycle low, you could even have a situation where price comes all the way back down and even test the prior low or exceeds and that becomes a cycle failure. I don't think that's something we see in Bitcoin, but all the more important. So here's where I distinguish myself from you. Traditional huddler a traditional huddler basically says that I'm in it for the next 20 years and Bitcoin's going to a million, it's going to 2 million and I'm just going to hold. And that philosophy I guess in some ways is okay if one bitcoin does get to a million or two or two minutes and two that you're able to hold through each of these 80% declines and these, you know, 200 x moves or 20 x moves that you see.

Some people can do that. Some people have done that and Kudos to you. Um, you know, I take my hat off to you, but I would much prefer to be in for most of that rally. Okay. Get out for most of the decline. And then when I buy back, I'm buying back with 10 times the amount of capital and buying 10 times the amount of bitcoin. So if I can do that for a couple of four year cycles, then where, where I may have started with a 10 bitcoin, you know, I may have 50 at the next one and then I may have, you know, two or 300 at the next cycle low. And that's really my objective. Obviously I wouldn't, I posted, I'm not going to double down like that or triple down so to speak. Uh, I will be taking capital off and redistributing it in other asset classes.

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I know some of you are thinking, oh, you're crazy. And the whole, the whole world economy's going to collapse and every single dollar is going to be worthless. Well, I'm not one of those guys, unfortunately. Um, I believe in bitcoin. I believe in its future, I believe in its success, but I'm not putting everyone on my eggs into that basket. Maybe it's just my experience. Maybe it's my position of where I am right now. I don't want to risk that. Maybe I don't need to risk that personally as well. But that's just how I view the market. Um, you're three to, you know, to view it as you should feel is the right. But uh, it also goes back to why I only have overall kind of a, a 10, maybe a little bit more than that now, 10 plus percent of net worth allocation to bitcoin for that reason because I don't need to add anymore.

When I'm looking at, you know, sort of a 20 and 40 x moves in Bitcoin, that's gonna do more, more than enough to, to, to regress my portfolio, my wealth over time. I don't need to get greedy. I don't need to be sleeping, eating, thinking bitcoin nonstop 24, seven and more importantly, a worried about its success for me to be successful financially if the rest of my life I'm at, I need to do that. Because I know, again, like I said, if I can stick to this plan, uh, even a small occasion, it's going to be more than enough to, uh, you know, to do the job.

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