When will Bitcoin hit 14 thousand dollars for 1 Bitcoin
Clearly. Now I'm going to rehash some old ground for many of you. So please bear with me. I hopefully you want to hear some of this again. But if you do recall the first video came out in December, right before the final decline. Um, the coal there was that we are now, we were heading into the very final stages of a four year cycle. Um, and the decline in Bamaga here from the 2017 top was coming to an end that we were in the final capitulation level and the call essentially was that yes, we may not be at the absolute lows in December, but we're getting very close and from a price perspective, I think the price at the time was 3,700 from a price perspective. There really wasn't any, any reason at that point to try and get a lower price. The goal there was to get your position before the market turned and got away from you quickly.
So obviously the low did come in and December. That's been more than confirmed. Now this four year cycle low is beyond any doubt and that should be very clear. We have a brand new four year cycle in play and you know that just not surprisingly, we're already almost a year in from that video. It's just crazy how quickly time flies. And it also just illustrates that from an investor standpoint, you know, time is your friend and time does go by quicker than you think. And by exercising a little discipline and little patients getting your position, you know, before you know it, as you can see here, we're already, you know, 200 or so percent up, even when Bitcoin is down still around 35 to 40% from the highs, the position from the four year cycle low is up almost 200% and that just illustrates that, um, you can try and trade all this and get shopped around and end up losing money perhaps.
But for those that got in and just huddled and essentially said that I'm not better than the market, I can't trade a market like this and held that position and now in a very, very comfortable, strong hand position. And as an investor, that's where you want to be. You don't want to be at the mercy of the market and that swings. You want to be in a position where even a 45% draw down as we recently experienced, even though that's something that nobody wants to experience by having a position that's in early and in profit, um, you are able to better weather a storm like that. So more on that to come actually. But talking about the four year cycle, I think what we've had occurring here is a, it's surprising to almost everybody. It's certainly surprised me to some extent. Um, my expectation was that we would get a move up to this sort of $6,000 range of 55, $6,000 range, right? Where broke down before, um, the final capitulation in December.
My main expectation was that we were going to build a significant base here under this 6,000 level for considerable amount of time and for a number of the 60 day cycles. And that just, that was just based on pure experience from previous bull markets, one in Bitcoin and also in other asset classes. Um, so really what I was thinking was that we kind of get back up to this 4,000 level, maybe bounce around a little bit and kind of do this for a considerable amount of time and not possibly into around the summer months, even late summer months here that we come up and test this area that was a hundred percent increase from the bottom. So that was a, a reasonable expectation. And then maybe even bounce off the bottom of this sort of resistance level here. So what was support before breaking down ends up sort of becoming some level result, resist resistance on the way up.
I think this is a popular type of idea as well once we will down in this area. And then like I thought the idea was that we eventually break out of that and when we broke, when we break out of the $6,000 range, we can at least them begin to accelerate higher and get up to this sort of area where we are today by the end of 2019 instead, what we saw was this massive candle here in April. And if you recall some of my videos, especially one of them in April, this here was a surprise at the time, but was also a clear sign that we were going to go high a quickly and much quicker. And, and I also put out a video saying now is the time, if you haven't to not mess around with price, um, do not look for a lower price.
Get in now because this market is starting to move now. Even at that point, my expectation was not that in 12 weeks would be up to the $14,000 range. But my expectation was, or my, my theory was that we should brace in a new bull market in a new four year cycle. We should brace ourselves for any upside surprises because, because Bitcoin was going to provide upside surprises. If anything, the risk was that the market was going to get ahead of you to the upside and that's why you needed that position. But if you look at the, uh, you know, the extent of this rally here and the, and the steepness of this, of this price action, it's very similar to the PR type of price action you see in the final stages of a parabolic advance. So this had all the characteristics of a parabolic like advance, but it could very early in a four year cycle as opposed to the final blow off move that you typically see at the end of a four year cycle.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
We've got this very early, so to me this is more of a, an impulse like move a more, more of a realization that we are in a new four year cycle. And I also think that we had, um, after this really long bear market here, we just had uh, enough accumulation down the bottom here and essentially sellers had run dry and there was just a whole bunch of FOMA that just took, uh, took control, took over and pushed us market way too far, too quickly. So what does that mean or what did that mean in the end? It meant that because the pendulum swung way too far here to the upside too quickly in a short period of time that there's a lot of back-filling to do a lot of profit taking, a lot of selling up in this $14,000 range. Once we broke above the $10,000 area, a lot of new sellers came into the market.
You really unlocked a whole bunch of sellers from the prior bull market, but also from, you know, from previous bull markets and the huddles as well who probably looked at this big advance and didn't do anything about it and ended up holding all the way through. And then maybe they looked at this and said, well, I need to get some off the table right here. So there were a number of different players, different profiles that came into the market at this area. But essentially we unlocked a wave of new selling. And of course the, the buying at that point was all speculative, be above the $10,000 range. So it, it just was very natural for the market to pull back sharply and to begin to punish all the latecomers that came in from the 10 to $14,000 range. It also means meant that we needed to consolidate those gains over a more considerable amount of time.
It did go higher, essentially nonstop from February all the way up to June. So a significant amount of time, a significant amount of price increase, three to 400% increase in a short period of time. So it stands to reason then that is the pendulum swings one way. It, uh, it has, it needs to swing back the other way in almost equal fashion. So what did we see in, in exchange, we saw a 45% retracement. All the way back down to this candle two or three weeks ago and now it looks like we may have found a bottom or some support and I'll get into that very shortly as well. What's the net effect? Well, the net effect is if you look at kind of this line here and I did have multiple lines from previous videos, I'm not trying to predict the absolute price movement of Bitcoin.
That's not my goal. My goal is to simply state that a four year cycle lows in place, I expect that right translated for you cycle meaning I don't expect the top to occur for three years or close to three years from this low. Okay, so here it is here, zoomed down. I didn't expect the top to occur until the three year Mark, which is 150 weekly bars as we saw and similar to the prior bull market. And then the 52 week decline. Um, we may not go as far right translated, meaning we don't top so far to the right of a four year cycle, a four year cycle being 200 or 210 weeks is the bare portion of the end of this cycle. So we may even K we may even top around about the 110 Mark a which is January of 2021 point being is that the lines are drawn this shot and mostly just for illustration, there are guide, there are trend there.
My expectation of where the cycle was going to move, but how it moves within that during a, during any one time [inaudible] is really up to the market's, uh, you know, up to the market's prerogative here. I'm not the one to, uh, you know, to call out and predict exactly where it goes. I'm predicting though that we've had the low and that we see the high of the cycle at, around about the 110 weeks, 150 week level. So again, January, 2021 to November, 2021, still a pretty far off point in the future. And I also predict that this is going to be right translated and have similar lag performance to the prior two cycles and the prior two cycles, as you know, had 20 X moves from the prior breakout point. So if you look at the top of the last bull market here, which was around about the 11 to 1200 area, once it got to that point and they went parabolic, that's a 20 X move.
20 X move was similar before. So if you look at this prior bull market top around the $20,000 range and you do a 10 X to 20 X, then obviously you get a price of 200 to 400,000. Now, um, don't go out. Again, this is the uh, disclaimer piece where I say, don't go out and bet everything you have on the fact that some guy on YouTube says it's going to go to 200 or 400. Um, again, I don't have that knowledge. If I find you with certain knew that Bitcoin's gone to 200 to 400,000, then I probably wouldn't be doing YouTube video. Not that I'm earning any money from this, but my point is that I'm here to basically point out, um, how I'm seeing these cycles, what the cycle has done in the past, and therefore kind of extrapolating forward, uh, using also a lot of the technical evidence using a lot of, uh, knowledge from prior bull markets and other asset classes to make the bet, essentially that Bitcoin is gonna move its way higher over this four year cycle and get to a point where it's up into this box.
And that box is a sort of prediction on price and time. So if we go current to this, let's just call it hundred bar level. Okay. And we draw kind of something like this. This is where I believe that Bitcoin will topper at some point. So at some point from November of next year to November of 2021, so it's a one year window, it's pretty wide. And somewhere between kind of this $45,000 to 300 and maybe even $400,000, the range is significant. And that's why I don't, you know, that's why my trading strategy, I've outlined certain points of profit-taking just to get some of that locked in as it moves higher. But just, you know, kind of setting some expectations I guess and just trying to get you and understand that the goal overall has been to get into position early. Let everybody else trade that trade or the whips and the ups and the downs and the draw downs and let everybody else FOMO in once it hits 20,000.
And let's, let's let retail and the media go crazy with all this. And why don't we just sit there without position knowing or at least um, with a plan that this is a possibility that may come true based on some of the evidence we've seen in the past and that we stick to that plan. That's really all this is about. And it gets a little difficult sort of repeating that message over and over again. Get a lot of questions on. Uh, is this the end of, of this move? Is it a bottom? Should we sell? Should we, should we add again, I really can't make it any clearer if, um, if you want a profit at the end, it means you have to get in early, get in with a, with a reasonable amount of size, uh, that works for you from a risk standpoint.
And then just basically concentrate on learning how to handle your emotions and handle the swings handle 45% draw downs like we saw cause you're going to have to handle 30% draw downs and more to come in the near future. So another question I get quite a bit is, is this the low that we just had recently and are we going to see new lows? Are we going to break below kind of the $6,000 range. And I guess to get quite a few questions about, is this just sort of a, a bad trap, a really big, you know, one year a bear trap of of three, 400% gains. Um, as funny as that sounds, I know a lot of people still believe that we're heading down into this $2,000 range and that this is all one big trap. Um, no, I don't believe that. I don't believe that for a second.
I would pretty much think that that something seriously wrong with Bitcoin if it's going to get anywhere near that level. Um, for me, I'd almost be it almost be busted at that point too to even consider something like that. Um, and if you think about it, it's kinda telling that we're getting so many people still concerned about the possibility of this moving lower, getting down into this area. Again, it's what we called disbelief in the new bull market, right? There's [inaudible] disbelief that this could still really, this could really be the new bull market that started. People don't want to believe it and that's because the pain that they suffered from the prior bear market decline is still so raw and still so fresh. And if you consider also the men or paper gains that most people held, especially in old coins all the way up here.
And so many of them as it starts to decline right here, um, essentially held that position, like deer and deer in the headlights held here and held here and held here. Rudy had that hope that's just going to come back and keep going and it didn't. Right. And eventually they capitulated it. Or if they didn't, they could pitch later down here and again, if they didn't and held all coins for example, then most of them have even performed to BTC. Um, as if they haven't really ended that bear market from kind of the February of 2018 timeframe. So it was painful. It was really painful. I get it. I know because I get all the emails and the DMS from people, the losses, uh, from, from massive paper gains to I've made so much money to, I've lost all that money. I've thrown more in, I've chased a market, I've doubled down, I've tripled down, and then the puked out at the bottom, common, common, uh, parabolic like moves the end this way.
And then to compound that, what happened here is that this move here took so many people by surprise. And I know again from the evidence of the feedback with people that so many people did not ride this found that too difficult to get in after it moved to 5,003 hundreds. They saw it at 3,300. Um, they gave up that position right here and could not, cannot bring themselves around to buying at 5,300 because they felt though paying a 70% premium from the bottom. And again, classic behavior. And then when it moved higher and moves higher and higher, and everybody was talking about how much money they earned, they got in at around the $10,000 range. And for a little while there, maybe just two weeks, it looked great again. Right? There was some great paper profits, some even started leveraging and trading futures up in this 11, 12, $13,000 range.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
And again, what happened? Well, a 45% retracement happened and they've now gotten in late again. They'd lost all the money here. They lost here again. They missed this move, they got in late, they ended up suffering a 45% draw down. And then again puking right at this point, uh, right here. And this is one sort of huddling to me at least is all about. It's all about taking all of that equation, all that decision making, all of that trading and investing on so pure emotion and what everybody else is doing out of the equation. And it lets you sleep at night. And I, and it's a famous saying by J P Morgan is nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbors getting rich. Right? And that's kind of the same thing here with social media and everybody sort of online, you know, when everybody supposedly is making money and all the time, Bitcoin and you're not, um, you end up end up chasing at the wrong time when everybody's talking about it.
And it's just classic behavior. It happened in 2017 happened on the way down and it happened right here. And you know, many of you right now probably second guessing yourself and saying, yeah, I've got some position but I'm waiting. You know, this is going lower. Uh, this is going back down. And you know, some people just don't learn the lesson and the lesson is simply that, that um, you're not better than the market. You're not better than 90, 95 and 98% of the traders out there. Um, but where you could be better, where you could be better than the rest of them is by embracing the fact that you can't time the market well and that you're not going to be able to get in and out as well as you think you can. But if you get in early and establish that position with the mindset that here is the goal, this is the window that you won't take anything sort of, you know, before, before November 20, 20 sort of a year out and you won't take anything kind of, you know, before the $40,000 range and above, then you know, then things, then you have a plan, then you have a strategy and a goal.
And you can at least set your mind to it and really focus and discipline and create a disciplined strategy to get to that point. And that's really the path. And if you start to say, well, but people making money getting in and out and trading, then you're really, again missing the picture. Because if you look at the price gains even from today, right, it's not too late. 9,000 seems rich a, it's up from 3000 and you didn't capture 3000 like, uh, like I did and many of people who who watch this channel. But you know, and so you want to make you wanna make some of that back. But again, this is what you're trying to compete with. Look at these games, even to the, even to the $50,000 range, you're talking about 450% gain up to this hypothetical top end range, 4300% gain. I mean, I'm pausing there just a little effect.
4300% gain. And here you are, possibly some of you I'm talking about, you can beat that thinking, you can beat that. And you just can't, you know, you just, you can't beat that. So again, I'm just emphasizing the fact that this is all about the strategy. It's all about playing for this box, playing for the prize up at the top here, still a way out. And if you doubt that, well look where it's going already. I mean, it's kind of, it's doing it right. It's doing what it's done in the past, right? It's doing what it's always done. The four year cycle started back there. Now again, I can't guarantee how it gets to that point, right? Does it go straight up to 60,000 in the next three months and then come back down to 30 or 20 and then work its way up? It might, I don't know.
Right? Does it turn sideways for six months below, uh, below 10,000 and above 8,000? It might, again, not the point. The point is not to worry about the day to day in the week to week swings of this and to focus on that area at the top. Um, so again, what could happen? A lot of things can happen between now and then. I believe though that in, I strongly believe in fact, and again it shouldn't really matter to most of you, but if you're waiting, I wouldn't wait. I strongly believe that the low we had three weeks ago is a low that will never be repeated in Bitcoin's history. That's a big statement to make and I'm not making it for clout purposes or reasons because again, it could go lower. It's going to be perfectly fine with me. I'll just wait it out. Okay. I still think we're going up to this box, not going to be shaken out of position, but I still believe, but I do believe though that this move here and if you look at it from a daily, I don't want to show you a daily chart, but from a daily chart, I find it very significant that we churned here sideways after a breakdown.
We made a low, I think it was a bear trap at that point and then it shot up higher. I think it's going to start to move higher. I think we go up towards the 10,000 to 11,000 range very soon, but I've got the wrong drawing tool. Um, but then again, this is sort of somewhat irrelevant. I'm just not, I'm not doing this for cloud reasons, um, or for short term training reasons, but I think we do spend some time now over the next few months, over the next few 60 day cycles saying to February kind of struggling to get above this 10 to 11,000 range. But once we get out, then we can begin to make headway up towards testing the $14,000 highs that we had very recently. And at that point, you know that that might provide some significant resistance. And I think at some point before moving above 14,000, we're going to experience yet another, um, another shakeout, another, um, you know, big bull market correction.
And that could be around sort of 30% or so. So maybe it's at this point could come sooner, could come later. Uh, but maybe it's at this point here, sort of in the April timeframe that we get up to the $14,000 range. And then come back down and correct. So if you look at prior bull markets, we, you know, we had these corrections of around 20 to 30%, sort of every four to six months. So maybe something like this up into the April timeframe where you get this, uh, you know, this kind of 25 to even 30% correction come back down to 10,000 again and kind of says, well, look at the double top, right double top with June. This is it. It's all over. And here's a big move, a wee break kind of back below, um, you know, 11, $10,000 range. So maybe correction as much as 30% on fast action and then we move higher again.
And then from that point, I think these sort of final accumulation phase, uh, [inaudible] would be done. And also the kind of the, the, the despair phase. Um, and the um, and despondent sort of phase would be uh, over once we get back above here and people realize that the 30% decline or the shakeout once it comes back up and actually breaks out and makes new highs and new multi-year highs, in fact, um, high is not seen since the December or late November or December, 2017 timeframe, um, multi-year highs here. They will realize then that there is no double top or at multi-year highs and this is where it begins in my opinion to get interesting. So it's next summer that we start to get really interesting and I think there's not much to be honest with you above 14,000. Yeah, there's a all time high 20, but I think the, the room on the gap between 14 and 20, it's just purely sort of psychological at that point.
We only have three or four weeks of, of really speculative price action in that range. I think we get updated pretty quickly. We get to the $20,000 area becomes more of a psychological barrier or resistance to price. I think we may be, we churn here for a 60 day cycle and then, um, at some point we break free from that. We start to make new all time, high territory and then you know where it goes from there. Right? Then your grandmother's in, uh, she's calling, um, you know, the taxi driver and Uber drivers, Rudy, you know, he's in as well. Uh, he's making a lot of money. He'll be retiring within a year as well. And you know how that goes from there and the move then the 10 X or 20 X move from that old time high period normally is pretty quick. It's like a nine month sort of extension and uh, I'm expecting the same type of thing to happen and I'm expecting something just as, as powerful as the prior one, maybe even more.
Maybe this is that generational, um, top in Bitcoin that you're not gonna really see for a couple of four year cycles. It's possible then that once this four year cycle tops, that the next four year cycle really disappoints and becomes a left translated bear cycle for four years. It's very likely that once we breached 20,000, if we hit triple, if we hit the six figure range at a hundred thousand and plus that the regulators around the world are really going to say, okay, enough's enough. This is out of control and they're going to come down on the, that won't kill Bitcoin, won't kill crypto in general, but certainly we'll put some brakes on it for awhile. And, um, I think the next band market from there can be quite surprising to in his length more than anything else. It won't be surprising in price because we've had or other prior bear markets in Bitcoin retrace around 80 to 90%.
So it doesn't really get any worse than that. But I think what you're going to find in the next bear market bear market is the severity in terms of time. Um, but that's, that's a subject for down the road. Um, again, I think what we see here is this big blow off, big blow of could mean 400, four 5,500. I don't know, not saying that again to get you all excited. Um, remember the box, the box here is your friend. That's our target. Get your position. I think it's going up there. Um, but if I'm wrong, uh, that's why again, I advocate a sensible allocation in relation to your total portfolio, your total wealth. You don't want a situation for whatever reason, and I can't predict why it would happen or how it happened. There are scenarios out there, but you don't want to have this happen.
Okay. All the way down here and you're holding everything including a home equity loan, some credit card debt, all in Bitcoin. And here it is here because you really thought and you're convinced that you know, this was coming and that the reserve currency would be Bitcoin within three years and Hey, it didn't happen. And then now you know, the, the mortgage you've been paying for 10 years is foreclosed or so forth. Don't do that. And I'm saying that some people probably laugh. Most of you are probably laughing and saying, well that's just crazy. But let me tell you, it happens. It happens far, far too often. It happened in 17, and happens in bull markets in general. People think it's a home run, can't lose situation, and they bet everything. I'm not doing that. I'm betting, um, I'm betting actually overall something that's going to be very meaningful, but at the same time, it's not going to, it's not going to really significantly hurt me financially.
In the end. It'll sting like any loss stings. Um, but I'll move on and I'll be fine. So I want you to also, uh, be in that position to be fine. In the worst case of scenarios, uh, some of you say, well, I'm 20, I'm 23. I, you know, I, I need to make it right. Well, okay, so if you're young and your assets are small, yeah, okay. You can sort of speak bet the farm if you're fine. If your farm is, you know, a, a patch of a, a patch of grass, a one foot by one foot, and then of course, you know, bet what you want, right. You, you're risking may be six months of income or something like that. Um, that's really not who I am. What this message is good, who this message is geared for. Exactly. At least. So yeah, if you can tolerate some risks, if you can tolerate some losses, a biome by all means do that.
But don't tell me that. That's your only hope, right? I do hear that quite a bit. That your only hope is that Bitcoin goes to a hundred or 200. That's the only way I'm going to make it. That's just a horrible way to look at it. Um, and I'm, I hit a school, anybody but you know, focus on, focus on building your career, focus on building your business, focused on building income, focused on the right if you want to get to trading and investing, focus on the right lessons and the right strategies, um, and focus on bringing in income and adding to your income and building skills and tools to increase that income over time. This is just one asymmetrical opportunity that's going to come across your life. There'll be many others, there'll be many others in Bitcoin to in the future. I can probably tell you that.
And the next four year cycle, the four year cycle after that. But there'll be other opportunities and other asset classes throughout your life. So don't view this as I want an out. Um, this is everything I need to, to bet on Antione hope that I have. So again, yes, it matters on what age you are and how much you can tolerate and what dependencies you have and what commitments you have. They all play a factor and play a role. So you need to be responsible and you need to really pay close attention to what is a reasonable allocation as far as you're concerned.