May Bitcoin start new Bull run from a golden ration 61.8
As we're speaking on the chart of Bitcoin, in fact a bitcoin has just seen a sudden bounce today and I want to show you what this bounce on bitcoin could potentially mean, and of course in this video I'm going to talk to you about this recent poll from CNBC and what this could mean as well, so all that to come in this video and just a few moments before I talk about that though, I do want to share with you something much more important, which is this, what is the purpose of analysing the markets and what are we trying to achieve in this video, and guys, if you can understand what I'm going to share with you in this section of the video, this will put you way ahead of everybody else out there because most people out there do not understand this. You say, guys, our job when we analyse the markets, analyse the price, is to do something that actually many historians do in their job as well. I want to play a very quick clip by one of my favourite historians. His name is Reza. Aslan is an absolute genius and I've got to tell you, every time I listened to one of his lectures, they completely blows my mind. Listen to what he says here, and this very quick clip I'm going to play for you and it's absolutely important and relevant to what I'm going to share with you in this video.
In a sense, what faith is concerned with is what is possible. Whereas history is interested in what is likely to give you an example of this. Is it possible that Jesus, unlike 98 percent of his fellow Jews, could read and write? Yeah, it's possible. Is it likely? No. No. It's not likely. Is it possible that Jesus, when he said, I am the Messiah, meant not what Messiah meant to every other Jew in the first century, but meant something completely new, that he meant that he was God incarnate? Yeah, it's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, and the job of the historian is to say what is likely the job of faith is to say what is possible and that doesn't need to necessarily be a conflict between the two
guys. So wonder as I just sat there and that video is absolutely relevant and important to how we as traders and students of the market analyse and view the markets. You see our job as traders and analysts to the market is not to tell you what is possible because anything is possible. Our job is to tell you what is likely. For example, in my previous video I showed you that one of the top searches in Google is, is bitcoin did. Apparently the majority of people out there think that bitcoin is dead. It's gone. Now, is it possible that the majority people out there are correct, that Bitcoin is indeed dead? Yes, it's possible, but is it likely? No. Is it possible that bitcoin is going to go to $20,000 by next week within seven days? Yes, it's possible. Anything is possible, but is it likely? No. Is it possible that according to a CNBC poll, bitcoin has not bottomed.
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In fact, this is according to a CNBC poll that found that majority of people out there, the dumb money, in other words, think that bitcoin has not bought them. According to the survey, they found a 64 percent of people think that actually bitcoin is going to go lower, and in fact it's not bottomed at all. Now, is it possible that the majority of people out there to dumb money are correct? Yes, it is possible, but is it likely? No. In fact, one thing that has been consistently proven to be true is that the dumb money is usually on the wrong side of the market, especially at the market turns. So guys remember as Professor Arsalon or as Reza was saying in that video clip, yes, anything is possible, but a lot of what is possible you have to accept on faith, not based on evidence or facts.
It's the same thing when you look at the markets. My job here is to show you what is likely, what is probable, not what is possible. No, that is not what I'm saying here at all. Anything is possible. Of course, bitcoin can possibly go up, possibly code down, but what I'm trying to show you here is what is probable, what is likely to happen. So let's talk about what is likely to happen here. Now take a look at this just in the last few hours, I would say probably in the last overnight. In fact, what's happened is that bitcoin came down to a very key level and as bounced from that level, as you will see right over here by that green bar that you see there. Now, is that significant? It could be. Let me show you why, because if we do a Fibonacci analysis, and by the way, for those of you who don't know what FIBONACCI is, I'll quickly explain that in a few moments.
Okay? So I'm going to do guys is I'm grabbing the FIBONACCI tool drawing from the left, bottom, left, bottom left there, and then to the top right. Okay? And you will see this is the 61.8 percent. As you can see, that's a 61.8 percent Fibonacci level as you will see here guys, what's happened is this drop that we've seen in the last few days, this drop has come down. In fact, this has been a 61.8 percent retrace. Okay, so this, this level you see, let me just draw a line here as well. So what you'll see here guys, is that bitcoin has come down to the 61.8 percent fib level and that is a key level. You can see it's held it. In fact, bitcoin managed to hold this level and bounced strongly off that level of 61.8 percent Fibonacci level.
Now let me just give you a few examples of this. Take a look at this chart of Bitcoin in September of last year. Now notice that from July to August, September of last year, but one of the very nice rally nice move up and then it retraced. Look at this. It retraced exactly 61 point eight percent of that rally. Let me just show you the next chart as you will see here. There it is, so essentially what bitcoin did here, it came down to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci support level and again, for those of you not familiar with this level, this is a key level on the charts. The numbers 61.8 is not arbitrary. In fact, mathematicians and many scientists have discovered that the, that this particular sequence, this particular number is 61.8 percent, is what's called the golden ratio because it happens across many other things in nature.
So this number 61.8 percent is not arbitrary. It is significant and usually when price comes at a 61.8 percent fib level, FIBONACCI level, it tends to hold it and then bounce from that level as you can see right there. Let me show you another example. Here's another perfect example for you. This is in December of 2017 as you may remember, that sudden crash that we experienced in near Christmas time in December of last year. Look at this. So bitcoin goes from five or 6,000 to 20,000. Okay, and then look at this. This sudden drop. That occurred in December last year, that was a 61.8 percent Fibonacci drop, in fact could hell the 61.8 percent level and then bounced off that level of like bounced very strongly off that level. Now of course it is true that bitcoin den dropped below that level, but what is significant, what is absolutely significant is that that 61.8 percent level held bitcoin have we managed to see a very strong bounce off of that level.
That is significant. What is important to appreciate is that this key level is 61 point eight percent level. It does usually hold bitcoin and in fact other markets too. So again, let's take a look at this. This was the rally we had from the 29th of June, from the end of June to mid or the 10th of July. Okay. And there's our drop and again, notice it held a 61.8 percent fib level. There it is right there as you can see. Okay? And as you will see here, it's bounced off that level very strongly affected by this reversal candle bar that you see right there. Okay? Now let's not get ahead of ourselves. It is nice to see something like that happening and certainly it could open the door, it could open the door to further gains for Bitcoin to rally higher. But for that to happen, and again we've got to distinguish between what is possible and what is likely in order for the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level to hold and for us to see at a rally higher.
What must also happen is that bitcoin must not fall below the lows that have formed here the lowe's or about 60, 56,050. That's 6,050 level. There must hold. In any case, bitcoin must not fall below 6,000. Okay? Because if it falls below 6,000. Okay, let me just show you what I mean. If bitcoin where to drop and fall below 6,000 the probability. In other words, what is it likely to happen is that bitcoin will fall much lower, quite properly to the lowe's before and back in June. In fact, to the 5,700 levels there. Okay. And quite probably we might even break through that level as well. Are you guys? So bottom line is this bitcoin for now is holding the 61.8 percent FIBONACCI level. That's a good sign. What needs to happen now is more follow through. We need to see follow through and more strength coming through in the days ahead towards $6,500.
If we don't see any follow through, if we don't see any more strength coming through in the bitcoin and if bitcoin falls below this low that have formed here right below the 61.8 percent level here, then if that happens, then just like a historian would say, well, what is likely not what is possible? We would have to say, look, it's possible that bitcoin could still go up, but the likelihood is lower and if bitcoin falls below that level falls below these lows than the higher likelihood, the higher probability is towards further selling towards the June low is 5,700, maybe even much lower than that or a guys, so keep an eye on this very important scenario and hope you enjoyed this video. Guys. Again, remember our job in these videos is to tell you not what is possible, what is probable, what is likely, and just in case anyone out there does not like probabilities, does not like what is likely, but they want certainties. Guys, again, as I've said this before, if you are looking for certainties and not probabilities, then I suggest you find a different career than investing or trading as a suggest a career maybe in accounting, where are you going to find certainties? Are It guys hope this video has health, and if it has, please give it a thumbs up and also please remember to subscribe to the videos of feature updates as well. Thanks very much indeed. Bye for now.