Will bitcoin use his last chance to surge 10 k or it will fall into 2 k?
Now, let me explain to you what I mean by that by the term last chance. So what we're going to do is take a look at this chart over here first. Now let me explain to you why I'm showing you the chart of gold from about a few years back and why this is relevant to what's happening on bitcoin. In fact, as you'll find out, it's extremely relevant and important is it guys, as you may remember, between the year of 2009 to 2011, gold went through an extremely powerful bull market. In fact, the price of gold doubled in value, almost doubled in value as you can see there from about a thousand dollars all the way to nearly $2,000 by 2011. And of course I'm sure you're a member. What happened next? The rest is history because that bubble eventually burst in the year 2011, as you will see here. And I'll show you exactly what this chart over here is telling us.
So what happened here was that gold in September of 2011, not that have massive incredible rally. The push to the higher it had a nasty drop as you can see right there, and that actually was very similar to what happened to bitcoin in December of last year, 2017 when bitcoin also had a very dramatic and very nasty drop. Now what's important to remember about this is what happened next, because after gold had that very tremendous and nasty drop, you'll see that it formed the base it from the base in this area as you will see here, and this 1600 region here. Okay, which I have marked on my chart here. Now notice what goal did here on the first drop that had had noticed, it had a bounce. I didn't. Very nice rally that turned out to be a failed rally. You will see that it's failed and dropped back to the support level.
The 1600 support notice that it held this level and once again we had another rally. This rally also failed as you'll see here, and you will notice this was the third time that gold came down to the 1600 level of support. Notice that this time also it managed to have a nice rally and let me tell you that almost everybody expected when this third rally started, so this was the first, is it the second and the third? Almost everyone I can tell you expect that a gold was not going to go back up to the 2000 level mark and potentially even higher to 5,000 and potentially even higher and of course it did not do that because that third rally, that third attempt to establish a bull market and indeed continue to upward trend also failed as you will see from here. Notice it, it came back down, came back down to that support level.
There it is. Notice that it came down to the support level right there and when that happened, guys, we knew something was terribly, terribly wrong. In fact, when you must be four of them, when this entire rally fell apart, that this was indeed a bat sign for gold because it eventually broke this level and they can see what happened. Then gold eventually broke. That's key level of support. Key market structure at 1600 and that's when gold entered a massive bear market. Now I'm sure you understand exactly why that's relevant to today's bitcoin market. In fact, I explained this entire pattern in a video that I posted about three months ago. You'll notice this wasn't my video from about three months ago called a dangerous pattern. Bitcoin must avoid, and I said Bitcoin must not repeat this pattern. So let's take a look at the chart of bitcoin right now.
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So here are the recent rally that Bitcoin has started here and let's put this in context of its previous rallies.
Let's zoom back. Okay, let's zoom forward just a little bit here. Okay. Now here's what is so important. You will see that this was the nasty drop we had back from December to January, February. Okay. And then this was the first rally that rally as we know, failed the first rally back in February. Failed, came back down to the support level in April and establish a new rally. That rally, the second one also failed and came back down to the support levels again to the support levels of February and April and from this support level we had the third rally, so again, similar to what happened in gold, we have had so far one rally which failed second rally which failed, and now this is our third rally attempt to.
The question is, and this is a big question that we should be asking, will this rally succeed or will it fail because here's why it's so important. If this is indeed the beginning of an upward trend and a bull market, which I believe it is. I do believe this is the beginning of a new bull market and a potentially new upward trend in bitcoin. If that is true, and if our theory about a new bull market in bitcoin is correct, then this third rally that you see here, this must not fail. This must not be what goal did back in the year 2013, because let me just say this one more time and I mentioned this before. If bitcoin does this, if it falls back down to 6,000 now I don't expect this going to happen, so I'm not saying it's going to happen. That's a big if, but if bitcoin does debt and if this ends up being a failed rally like back and gold in 2013, then guess what?
Not only are we going to break this level that only we're going to go below the lows of February and April below 6,000, but actually we're going to go significantly lower flow, potentially go back down to 5,000 or maybe even $3,000 levels. Now, am I saying it's gonna Happen? No, absolutely not. I don't expect it's going to happen and as long as. Again, let me repeat this, as long as bitcoin maintains itself above 6,000 above the support level, okay? We remain bullish. Now, let me also add this because it's very important when I say the rally in Bitcoin, this rally you see here when I say this must not fail. What I'm not saying is that bitcoin must go in a straight line. Of course not. Nothing ever is going to go in a straight line and certainly we don't expect that bitcoin is going to go in a straight line higher.
That is ridiculous. No, of course not. In any bull market, in any upward trend, you're going to see big move pull back or retracement and then another big move and then pull back a retracement and then another big move. Okay, so we're going to see that staircase pattern of big move, pull back, big move, pull back and so on and so on. And it can see. So far bitcoin has been doing that, you know, big move, pull back, big move and if I can see it's been another pull back just recently in the last few days. So of course nobody's expecting that bitcoin's going to go in a straight line upwards. That is ridiculous and we don't expect that, but all I'm saying is this, that the upward trend must continue towards our. Well, our first target would be about $10,000, but the bottom line is that what we're saying is that what must not happen is a repeat of gold back in the year 2013 when that third, the third rally occurred, and then boom, it collapsed and fell back to its original support level.
And then of course it broke that level. Now there's one more important thing I want to say in this video, which is there's an old saying amongst traders, which is that markets can be very generous at giving you second and third chances that they are stingy with fourth and fifth chances. That is important to remember because if we take a look at this chart of bitcoin after bitcoin had a massive drop in half from December to February and formed this bottom here at formed as initial bottom in February. You see there many folks miss the opportunity to buy bitcoin at that level. So what happened? Bitcoin came back and gave them a second chance. So that's our second chance that bitcoin offered. So this was again the first, the second, and yes, there was indeed the third chance. The third opportunity, so again, as you can see here, markets are very generous offering second and third chances, but as I've just explained, markets are very stingy.
I've giving you fourth and fifth chances. That is important to remember because indeed this is the beginning of a new bull market, the beginning of a new upward trend in bitcoin. Then this was indeed the last chance that folks had in acquiring bitcoin right there back in June of this year, so I believe that if this is the start of a new bull market in Bitcoin, which I believe it is, then the third opportunity, the third chance that was back in June and the ship has sailed. That opportunity has therefore very likely gone because here's what's important about that because if bitcoin, and again it's a big if, if it were to drop back down to that 6,000 level, anyone who thinks that bitcoin is going to do this again, another bounce and then another move up for a new bull market. That's extremely unlikely folks.
That is extremely unlikely. In fact, I would give it a very low probability. No, because as I've just explained, if bitcoin were to fall back down, if this ends up being a failed rally and rolls over to $6,000, no, we're breaking that level. There's an 80 percent probability that if bitcoin comes to $6,000, we will break that level with a strong likelihood. Now again, just to repeat, I don't think that is likely. I think it's highly unlikely that bitcoin is going to come down to those levels again and again as much before we'd been long. You know, we've been bullish on bitcoin since down from these levels here, so we will continue to remain bullish on bitcoin unless the market tells us something different.
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