Saturday Bitcoin drop will bring a Bear market?
Now in this video we're going to try and address an important question which many of you been asking me, which is whether this recent drop in Bitcoin, in fact the drop over the last few weeks, and perhaps the most recent drop on Saturday, is this actually game over for bit coin, and if it's not game over, then what does it actually mean? What's going on here? Okay, so here's what happened here on Friday. Okay. The price of bitcoin fell into the support level on the 21 and the 55 ema. Now, by the way, I'm looking at a chart here that excludes, we can data, so I always look at two charts, one that excludes weekend data and one that includes we can data that you see here. Now, the reason why looks at both of these charts, because I mentioned this before, because often data can corrupt the charts because it's driven by often by bots and algorithmic activity.
So often looking at a price, a price chart that excludes weekend data can often give us a much more accurate picture. Okay, so what does this recent drop in the price of bitcoin or this entire downward move here could potentially mean? So let me just zoom back here on this chart and show you something. First of all, notice this downward trend line that I've drawn here on bitcoin. This downward trend line you see right there by connecting these important hi is that we formed back in March and the highs of May notice that bitcoin has now fallen back below that trend line. You say, let me just zoom back in. Resuming forward here until Friday until Friday when I was looking at this move on bitcoin. It didn't look so bad. I mean bitcoin had fallen into 55. Ema on the daily charts and drop to to 55.
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Ema is actually perfectly normal. In fact, even a dropped that at 21 and the 55 ema on the daily timeframe is very normal and a healthy correction in any market, even a bull market. Although I will tell you this, I am rather surprised that the drop was more extensive and more deeper than I originally expected. I wasn't expecting such a, such a strong or deep correction for me, the more normal correction in an upward trend would have been something down to the 21 moving average. Not usually down to the 55 DNA, but then I thought, look, I said, I said, look, okay, so we've got a 55 ema correction there. That's fine. It looks normal, but notice what happened on Saturday on Saturday. This is when that massive drop occurred that you see right there. Now let me just say something about that. Many people out there think that because bitcoin can be traded on a weekend, that's a good thing.
No, it's not. It is not a good thing that bitcoin is available to be traded on even on a weekend. Why? Because we can see very thin volume. Okay. One of the problems with weekends is that you have very thin volume in the bitcoin market because why? Because most traders, most of the big money, the financial traders out there, they're not trading bitcoin and a weekend. No. They're out there with their family and friends and you know, they're playing golf. They're vacationing there on holidays, especially during the summer period of August, August has some of the thinnest volumes because people are on vacation, a holiday and also especially on a weekend in August because again, most folks are not trading on weekends. That means this, that means because of the thin volume and because of the BOT and algorithmic activity that isn't institutions have placed that can easily manipulate the price and cause extreme movements, especially on Saturdays and Sundays.
So guys, one of the disadvantages of the fact that bitcoin can be traded on a weekend is simply that because of the thin volume, especially thin volume during the summer period of August. Again, these are bots that are controlled and placed by institutions by the big money. They can often cause extreme market movements like the one we saw on Saturday. The big question is this, is this game over? No, I don't believe it is not just yet. There is still potential for bitcoin to be rescued here. For one thing, take a look over here. Notice that bitcoin has dropped, but whereas it dropped into. So if I just draw my FIBONACCI retracement tool, so by the way, FIBONACCI retracement tools are on every chart out there, almost every chart. Let me just draw this and you can see that bitcoin has now fallen to the 61 point eight percent, the 61 point eight percent, the golden ratio, Fibonacci ratio are just about there, which is about the 6,800 level.
All right? That is important. Bitcoin must remain above 6,800 on a closing basis and you can see that even though it's fallen, it's fallen just above the 6,800 level, it has not fallen below that level. So that's a good thing. It's a positive sign. It can see it's actually beginning to slowly bounce off these levels as I'm making this video. Okay? So that's the first thing. That's a positive sign for going, although not fantastic, but it's still a positive. But more importantly, we need to see buyers. And when I say buyers, I mean the big money, the institutions. We need to see institutions pushing bitcoin this week above this trend line. That's the red line you see going through on my chart. We need to see bitcoin getting rescued and being pushed above that trend line and as long as it remains above this 61 point eight percent Fibonacci ratio, there may still be some hope and actually they're.
That actually might be a positive sign for bitcoin. Again, my personal view is at the moment still that there's still a probability, greater probability, let's say about a 55 to 60 percent probability that this is still a correction within an uptrend. As I showed you in my update last week, I said, look in an uptrend, don't move in straight lines. They do this, they go up big move correction, big move correction, big move. Sometimes the correction can be more messy. It can be sideways like this, but again, big move higher. So bottom line is we do see this zigzag of big move, pull back, big move correction of Solana, so on. So when I saw this on Friday, I thought to myself, you know what? No big deal, big move, pull back, big move, pull back and we should see a rally higher. That is still my expectation.
All right? That is still what I believe is going to happen. I still believe there's a chance that bitcoin can get rescued and continue this upward trend, this rally higher, but again, that does depend. Just go back to this chart that does depend on us remaining, remaining above the 6,800 Fibonacci supports and it does depend on getting rescued and pushed above that trend line. If it can do that, if we can see that rally continuing and those support levels being held, then yes, the uptrend is still in place, but. And here's the big but coming. No, we definitely don't want to see bitcoin closing below 6,800. If it does that, that increases the odds. That increases the probability that it's going to fall to 65 and potentially even the 6,000. And let me say this one more time. If bitcoin for $6,000, again, I don't expect this, I don't think it's likely, but if bitcoin does fall to $6,000, that is essentially a big huge warning signal.
Now, let me just say this, I don't expect that. I think it's less likely but not impossible either. So we need to keep our eyes open this week and see what bitcoin does. Would it see a bounce, will it see some joy and get them moving above that resistance above the trend line, which I think could happen potentially on the balance of probabilities. I think there there's still a likely that could happen, but if it doesn't, and if it falls below $6,800, especially if it falls down to let's say six to 206,000, then know that that is essentially the red card meaning brace for impact because potentially removing much for the lower down below 6,000. All right, so that's what we're looking at. That's the general picture on Bitcoin. Now again, my personal belief on the balance of probabilities is that the uptrend in bitcoin can still continue.
Okay? Again, as I'm making this video, we're seeing a nice healthy bounce on bitcoin were seem to be holding the 6,800 level there. Alright? So personally I still remain bullish on bitcoin. I still favour the British picture on bitcoin. Has my confidence been shaken a little bit? Yes, it has, absolutely. But again, that's one of the disadvantages of bitcoin trading on weekends had had bitcoin not being able to trade on a weekend. Then algorithmic activity or bought activity that happens on weekends would not be able to, would not have been able to manipulate and influence price movement.