Now in this video, I'm going to make a very interesting prediction which might come as a surprise to many of you, especially being watching my previous videos. Now I'm also going to try and explain what this pattern is forming here on bitcoin could potentially mean, but before I do that, let me just quickly say this. Firstly, as you probably know as I've been saying this now for some time, the fact that bitcoin keeps coming down, the fact that bitcoin has failed every single time for these rallies succeeds. You see these rallies here, these rallies all have failed. Okay? So what I've been saying now is these failed rallies. The fact that bitcoin keeps coming down, testing this key level at 6,000. So this is the key level I'm talking about here. So the fact that bitcoin keeps coming down and testing these levels at 6,000 or 5,900 is a bearer signal for bitcoin.
And I think potentially by the beginning of next year, I think more likely in the beginning of 2019 we're going to see bitcoin taking out and breaking this floor. Okay? So I expect that, I think it's likely that by perhaps a start-up 2019, I don't think it's going to happen this year. I think it's more likely to happen in the first half of 2019 that we could potentially break below 6,000 and potentially even below $5,000 as well. That's four I think next year. But between now and December, here's what I think is going to happen and that's because of the pattern is forming here on bitcoin. So actually you might be surprised to hear that I'm actually bullish between now and December. So here's why. Take a look at this pattern. This is a very interesting pattern is forming here and I'm sure many of you have noticed it too. This is a sort of a triangular formation pattern.
If you just connect these highs and then we just connect these lows so you can see this triangular formation and bitcoin is coiling as going to see. Bitcoin has been coiling inside this pattern, and I think I say the coiling is actually getting tighter and tighter. It's like a spring that's been coiled, and of course eventually the tension, the tension is building inside. This coiling is going to break just like a spring, for example, like I just like a coil or a spring that gets tightened and eventually when that tension gets released, we see movement, so that's what I think is happening here on bitcoin. This coiling effect is happening here. As you can see here. If I just expand zooming on the screen now, you might be asking, well, what does all this mean? Well, it means that this pattern to my mind when I see a pattern like this, this tight triangular formation like this, okay, let me just try this one more time.
When you see this tightening coiling effect in this triangle formation, this pattern is much more likely to break to the upside. I think it's far more likely that Bitcoin is screaming. Bitcoin is aching to break this pattern to the upside. Now you might be thinking, well, why did the upside than the downside? Let me explain this. There's about two or three reasons for this. Actually, there's a lot of reasons for this, but let me just mention a couple here in this video. The first one is this, something I mentioned now in my previous videos quite a lot, which is bitcoin, seasonality, bitcoin, seasonality in case you've missed my previous videos is the fact that in certain periods of the year bitcoin is quite bullish, is quite strong and in certain periods of the year is quite weak, so we know for example, historically and seasonally between June and October, bitcoin is quite weak.
We've seen that happening this year too, but between the period of October to December, it just so happens that bitcoin acts rather strong. Okay. As you saw yourself last year in 2017, bitcoin staged a very powerful rally between October to December period. Very powerful rally and we've seen this pattern repeating itself across many years in the past. So again, just to repeat this point between October to December, bitcoin has a strong bullish bias that's important to remember. The other factor to consider is sentiments. The fact that people have lost interest in bitcoin over the last few months. In fact, from the beginning of the year, just take a look at this. This is the Google trends charts and you can see from January of this year to now here in October, now we are almost entering October. Now we can see this kind of general trend that really the public, the general public have lost interest in bitcoin. It's been a flat lining of interests and by the way in case you're wondering, that's a good thing for Bitcoin as a contrarian, you want that to happen.
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Okay, so the fact that people, the general public, the average Joe Industry has lost interest in Bitcoin and in fact we've seen a sentiments dropping from bullish to bearish. That is a contrarian and positive signal for bitcoin. Okay, so that's two things now that bode well for bitcoin and I went to. The third factor is that I just think this pattern, this pattern that we're looking at here on Bitcoin is triangular formation. Again, as I mentioned before, this pattern, just screaming, screaming for the algorithms to break it, and I think that's what's likely to happen between now and the next few weeks. I think by the middle of October, maybe by the middle to the end of October, what's likely to happen is the algorithms designed by institutions. I think there's high frequency trading algorithms are going to potentially break this triangle formation to the upside. Okay. I mean just the fact that bitcoin keeps coming and testing this pattern keeps coming.
Testing this, this trend line here. To me, this is just a pure example of how algorithms are going to eventually break this pattern to the upside and we might see a potential rally. I think we could see a 10 to 20 percent rally in Bitcoin when that eventually happens. Now that rally might fail. Absolutely, but given this seasonal strengthened bitcoin that I just mentioned a few moments ago, given the seasonal strength and given the sentiment dropping sentiment, turning against Bitcoin, I think the far more likely period, the far more likely scenario is if we break this pattern to the upside, I think it's quite likely we might see a potential short term rally about a 10 to 20 percent rally between the October to December period. By the way, let me just mention this, that there is still a risk that bitcoin could break this floor to the downside that might break to the downside of the triangle instead of the upside, so there is a risk of that happening, but all I'm saying is given the patterns, given the seasonality, a given the sentiment, there's about a 55 to 60 percent probability that we might see a breakout to the upside than the downside.
That's all I'm saying. And in case you're wondering, is a 55 to 60 percent probability any good? Yes it is. Because remember some of the best traders in the world, like Paul Tudor Jones and Linda Rashki, they've often traded and they do often trade with about a 55 or 60 percent probability. Her Guy just let you know that I've covered bitcoin in much more detail. Our guys at this video has helped. Please give it a thumbs up and it was a police subscribe for more videos as well.
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