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Is it possible that Bitcoin price may fall to 3k or it will stop on another price range?

In this video, we're going to talk about how low could bitcoin go on the balance of probabilities, and indeed, uh, what could be the likely targets for bitcoin if it continues to drop for the lower, which is quite likely now, first of all, some of you might be asking, well, hang on a second. Why should we even expect bitcoin to drop any further lower? What is the basis for that? Okay, so let me just quickly discuss that. First of all, what's happened is bitcoin has repeated the pattern, which we warned about back in April. I posted this video, as you may remember, I mentioned that there's a particular pattern which bitcoin needs to avoid. And unfortunately bitcoin has now repeated this pattern this month. I'll talk to you more about this in a separate video, but the bottom line is that what's happened is that bitcoin has broken key market structure.

 

So if you just take a look at this, you can see that after bitcoins drop from December of last year, it sort of forming a base. So from the base at these levels that you see here, let me just, um, mark them. So around the 6,000 levels there as you can see, and it was forming at this base to support level, which of course it finally broke out of, it, broke below that support structure, that market structure this month, and that unfortunately puts bitcoin into an official bear markets. One of the key definitions of the bear market is that price needs to break market structure. Okay. And unfortunately many people don't know this, but it's important to mention that. So now that we've broken below market structure and we're below the key support levels, that is one of the reasons, one of the basis that we could see potentially further lower levels, but there's actually another reason to.

If we switched this chart to a monthly timeframe, this is a monthly timeframe of bitcoin and you can see that we were below also a key level and that's the Blue Line on my chart. If you can see, we have now cracked and gone below that 21 monthly average as the blue line on the chart, which is a critically important level for bitcoin and unfortunately you can see that as off as of last week, we are now below that 21 monthly average, which is another definition of course have a bear market. Now, let me just go back to that daily time frame chart. It is of course true that after bitcoin dropped, it did hit oversold levels on the RSI, so Rsi on both the daily timeframe and the weekly time frame has hit oversold levels and usually when that happens, you expect to see some kind of bounce.

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For example, a bounce back to the averages like a 21 ema or a bounce back to the level it broke out of, which is 6,000. Now, I personally think that it's rather unlikely we're going to go all the way back to the 6,000 levels, although certainly that's possible, but some kind of bounce would have been likely. That may still happen in the next few days, but here's an interesting point. If we don't get a bounce, if we don't see any kind of bounce from the oversold levels, then that actually might mean that we could see further lower levels, probably a bit more quicker, but I will say one thing, it has managed bitcoin has managed to recover from these low that it hits, so you can see price managed to close back near the 5,600 levels here despite the drought that had had down here. But in any case, uh, we have got oversold regions, so there might be a potential bounce coming in the next few days.

But here's the thing, even if we see a bounce, even if there is a bounce, we expect to see another leg lower in bitcoin. And the question we're asking is how much further lower could we expect to see? So that's what I want to talk about in this video and what I've done here on my chart, and you can see it very clearly with these Magenta, these purple lines on my chart, we're going to use a methodology called symmetrical projections or symmetry. This is a well-known and very well established theory in chart analysis called equal dry, also cold symmetry and equal drive or symmetry simply means that the market or price usually moves in proportional or symmetrical movements to its previous movements. Okay, so what we're doing here is using the market's own geometry, which actually makes perfect sense. We're using the market's own personality.

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So what I've done here as you can see guys, is I've essentially drawn this Magenta purple line from the most recent significant peaks. So that's one of the most recent significant peaks. And here's another one. All right, to the significant low at 6,000. All right, now it's up to you how you want to draw that, but that's one of the levels I've drawn from. So you can see it's just a, just like that. A simple line, a simple vertical line like that, and we're just connecting to highs to the lows like so. Okay. And then we're going to do is we're going to clone this. We're going to copy this just right click this. If you're using trading view, just right click and just click clone or copy paste. If you want to do that, I'm going to just click clone and then we're going to just symmetrically project that from the bottom there.

So I'm going to just. I'm just toggle this chart a little bit here so you can see that. Okay, so what I've done is I'm just gonna bring that down. I'm just going to put at the very bottom right there as you can see our guys. So that gives us a symmetrical projection as a matter of. Actually what I'm going to do is I'm going to do the same thing with this one over here, so I'm going to right click on this one from this high to low right click, click clone, and we're gonna do the same thing with this one right over here. As you can see, just put at the very bottom there. Okay, we're done that now and we're going to do now is just zooming back a little bit and just toggle this chart a little bit so we can see this more clearly.

Okay. So now we have two potential targets for Bitcoin as you can see, and then what you want to do is just put a horizontal line on your chart. So I'm just going to put a horizontal line at the very bottom right there and I'm going to use another horizontal line at the very bottom or right here. Alright, so now what that means is that we are using symmetrical projections to find the next likely targets for Bitcoin if it continues to fall further, lower, which I think is quite likely. And you can see the first level puts it at 4,585 or let's just say 4,500 for the sake of simplicity. And the next level is going to be at the 3,500 level, just slightly above 3,500, three, five, seven, seven. Alright guys. So these are two likely levels that could be tested by Bitcoin if it continues to see further downside pressure.

Uh, by the way, there are other methods we can use to, to project lower levels. For example, one Methodist to use moving averages on the higher timeframe charts. We'll take a look at that in a separate video, but the bottom line is this. We're using a very simple method to identify future downside projection. By the way, let me just show you a very quick example. This is the last time that bitcoin forums a strong support level which had broken out. If this is 2014, by the way, after the strong drop that Bitcoin had in the year 2013, 2014, you can see that it formed the base here as you can see the chart of bitcoin from that period, and I'm just going to mark for you the levels. Okay, there it is, and what we did here is draw a line across that level at the 400 level.

That's a 400 level and then we use similar methods, so using symmetrical projections from peak to lowe's. So let me just show you what happened next. When bitcoin eventually broke out of that structure, that market structure. So here's what happened next. You can see that in 2014 when bitcoin fell out of that market structure, it eventually dropped back down very close. In fact that that's first projection right over here. Okay, so drop eventually from 400, it fell all the way down to $200 of course kind of bottomed out and you're the 150 level there back in 2015. As a matter of fact, I think I see what happened next. They managed it from a bottom at that level and then stage a rally. So the bottom line is this guys that I think that one spit coin falls down to these levels and again at the moment is highly unclear which of these levels is likely to be the significant target, but I think it's quite likely eventually bitcoin will form some kind of bottoming pattern once it hits these lower levels and of course that could create for us down the line and potential buying or long opportunity.

Alright guys, thanks very much indeed. If this video helps, please give it a thumbs up and if so, please subscribe for future videos. Thanks a lot.

 

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