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If a Bitcoin bull run has started, we will see a strong price retrace from marks we hold now. Where to search possible entry point for a long time investor?

In this video in just a few moments, I'm going to share with you a very interesting signal on this chart of bitcoin. I'm going to explain to you what this potentially means. So very interesting updates here on bitcoin. Stay tuned for that. Uh, before I go into that, I just want to make sure I mentioned a few things. Just a quick recap on what's been happening here. So in the last video that I posted about Bitcoin, here it is, I mentioned that video at towards the end that if bitcoin where to close above the trend line, this is the trend line I drew on in the previous video. And I said if bitcoin where to close above that trend line, we could see a move towards 6,000 and in fact, and the video after that in the member's video. So this is the member's video updates I said in that video, that's because bitcoin has not closed above the trend line as long as it remains above the trend line.

 

Therefore there's a high probability if it moving towards the 6,500 levels that I'm showing here. Now, of course, bitcoin a very quickly moved above the 6,500 levels as we have seen now and has moved above 6,500 tours, not only 6,800 but even towards the 7,500 levels at the highs here. It has given back some of that gain by the way, as we can see on this bar today. But bottom line is here that bitcoin has certainly seen a very parabolic and very strong move to the upside. One thing I should also mention here as well, and it's worth pointing this out, that in the last couple of months when the last few months, these pulse signals on the daily and the four hour time frames have been absolutely beautiful. Take a look at this. The pulse signal had fired back in March. As you can see right there when the red dot turned to blue dot with positive momentum.

And you can see as long as the positive momentum pushed higher, bitcoin also moved higher. And by the way, this is how you know when the pulse signal ends, when you get two consecutive dark green bars like that. Okay. And look at this, this new pulse signal to fire it off just in the beginning of May, as you will see it right here. So Paul signals fired off right here to the upside. We can see momentum is pushing to the upside right here. And this actually pushed bitcoin momentum here. Push bitcoin from 5,202 the levels we've seen recently. By the way, here's, here's what's interesting. If I switched this to a four hour timeframe, get this four hour timeframe is even more beautiful. So as you can see here on the four hour timeframe, uh, pulse signal fire in the beginning of May, right there, this pushed bitcoin up to almost 5,500.

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We had another signal. We hadn't actually, we had two pulse signals that fired off here. Uh, as you will see here, what's interesting about this is the first signal didn't do much, but the second signal, as you can see, when this red dot tend to blue, and you can see the Bitcoin, then search from about 5,800. Yup. Eventually to the levels we saw just recently. By the way, this pulse signal has not yet dissipated the momentum that certainly being very powerful, but the pulse has not yet diminished. Went into wait for two consecutive dark green bars to show that this pulse has actually dissipated. And by the way, because of the strong upward momentum on Bitcoin, I actually opened the long position, a small, long position on Bitcoin as you can see here, which just been doing quite nicely so far. And I'll be closing this position probably probably tomorrow or in the next few days when I get the exit signal.

All right guys, let's go now to discharge a, I want to show you here. Let's go to the weekly charts. Now, the reason why I want to show you this timeframe chart of bitcoin and the signal on this timeframe is because of something that has not happened probably since 2015 so I'll explain to you what it means. Uh, let me, first of all, I mentioned to you what I have on my chart. I have actually a few moving averages. The black line that you see here. The black line is the 50 simple moving average on the weekly timeframe. The purple line is a 55 EMA, 55 exponential moving average. A yellow line, or the orange line I should say is the hundreds EMA and the Blue Line is the 21 EMA, but what's interesting are these three moving averages that you're seeing here. So these are the three I want to focus on in this video.

The 50 simple moving average, the black line, the 55 the purple line, and the 100 okay, these three. Now, let me explain to you why these moving averages are now significance on this weekly timeframe. You'll see last week when bitcoin closed above it's 50 and 55 moving averages, I said this was potentially significant. Here's why bitcoin has now closed. In fact, very likely it's going to by the end of today, it's going to close twice on the weekly timeframe above these moving averages. Okay? Again, the 50 55 and the 100 moving averages on the weekly timeframe. Why is that significant? Because let's go back to the year 2015 and this will become very clear. Okay. In fact, let's just scroll back. Okay, here it is. Notice that this was the last bear market off Bitcoin, the one that pretty much dragged from the year 2013 14 and of course ended bottomed out of the year 2015 as you can see right there, cause that was the bear market of that previous, um, those previous years.

Now when in the year 2015 bitcoin bottomed out. Look what happened next. You will see something interesting on the first attempt when bitcoin rallied and came up to these averages, it came up to the 55. There it is. In fact, let me just put a circle around this right here. Notice on the first attempt, bitcoin failed to get anything going above these averages. So you can see it came up to the averages. It came to the 55, 150. Moving average is right there. It failed. And guess what? It then dropped lower. But look what happened on the second attempt, as you will see here. So you can see it raced above the 50 moving average and then it closed above the, uh, the 55, the 100 and of course the 50 moving averages. And look what happened after that skyrocketed. Look familiar. So notice what happened, very parabolic move similar to what we're seeing right now.

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And in fact, a bitcoin pretty much moved from about a 200 region, 240 region to, yeah, about 500 $500. You can see right there that look what happened after that. This is what this is what's really interesting. Bitcoin, after the parabolic move that we saw right there, notice what it did after that strong, massive move up to $500. It pretty much gave all of it back. Look at that. It retraced very nastily. Okay, very nasty movements to the downside. But look where it stopped. This is where it gets interesting. So, so yes, we did see bitcoin close above the 50 simple moving average above the 55 above the 100 and a huge parabolic move. And then within a week or so, bitcoin pretty much gave all of those gains back and pulled back. Where'd the pull back to? This is what's interesting. It pulled back to the 55 and 100 moving averages.

Now it didn't come all the way back down to the, to the black line, the 50 simple moving average, but it did at the very least common testy and 155 exponential moving averages that that's the orange and the purple line you see right there. And this is what's interesting. What's interesting is what it did nixed, it, held these levels, it held these levels and then bounced. And that by the way, signal the starts off the bull market from 2015 that lasted all the way to 2017 as you can see right here. Look what happened after that. Pretty much started the bull market rally that started from there. Yeah, you can see right there. So this was a very important clue. As you can see, this is not insignificant what happened in 2015 and again, history does not always repeat itself, but it does rhyme as the saying goes, you know, history does rhyme.

So if it's not exactly 100% similar is there are similarities. So just a recap on the first attempt, bitcoin failed to get above these key moving averages in 2015 on the second attempt it, it succeeded. Two consecutive closes parabolic surge retracement pulled back to the 5,500 100 moving averages. It bounced off those levels and that's the important thing, the bounce, okay. And that could potentially signify a potential bull market. All right. Now I know some people have already made their minds up that we've already entered the bull market. That's fine. But the bottom line is this. We have seen historically that statistically bitcoin, after a strong parabolic move, sees a strong retracement. By the way, something very similar to this happened also in 2012 after the other bear market that occurred in 2010 11 point I, by the way, this doesn't just happen in bitcoin.

It does happen in other markets too. Happens in gold happened the stock markets. So these patterns do repeat themselves across other markets too. So what does this mean for Bitcoin? Now, what potentially could happen next is this, well, we've seen now bitcoin make two consecutive closes above the 50 simple moving average and the 55 and the 100 exponential moving average. All right, now the bottom line is this. The question is, will we now see some kind of retracement? The balance of probabilities suggest that some kind of retracement, some kind of pullback down to the 50 and the 55 moving averages are probable. Uh, of course it doesn't have to happen. There's no guarantee it's going to happen. But again, statistically and historically, this usually happens, we've seen before how markets move above their 55 100 moving averages and then after a while come back and retrace back down to test those levels.

Okay. And actually, even in FIBONACCI analysis, if you consider a FIBONACCI analysis, um, if I'm not sure retracement from this low to this high, now assuming that's the high there, we don't know. But assuming that's the high for the moment, even on Fibonacci analysis, you can see that's the 38.2% retracement at five nine 70 the 50% retracement at five four 60 and the 61.8% the golden ratio retracement at nearly $5,000 as you can see right there. Okay? So the probabilities are there for some kind of potential pullback down to test these FIBONACCI levels and also the moving averages and moving averages that we just mentioned here. Okay. The 100 and moving average of 55 and the 50 simple moving average. So if history repeats itself or if it rhymes with the past, there is a possibility we could see bitcoin making a retracement move to test these moving averages or these FIBONACCI levels.

And this is what we're looking for. By the way, this is what we're looking for. Let's just get rid of these FIBONACCI levels. Let's say for example, we see some kind of retracement. Let's say. Let's say we see a potential retracement back down to test these moving averages here at these levels, okay? Near the 5,000 levels. Okay? Now, here's the thing, if bitcoin holds these levels and bounces off these levels, that could signify a potential bull market. All right guys. So that's very interesting indeed. But there's a bus coming. If, however, and this is it, this is a very interesting, if bitcoin does not hold, if it doesn't hold these support levels and if it's, if instead, if instead, if it moves below these key averages and especially if it moves below the 5,000 levels, then there's potential for further downside, maybe towards a 4,000 or 4,500 levels.

All right guys. So that means these key levels, these moving averages are not going to play a very important part for bitcoin because we can now use them as a measurement of a potential blow market or if indeed have a sustainable market or not. So going back to the daily time frame charts, so good a daily timeframe. So we've seen this parabolic moves before in bitcoin. We've seen happen 2015 1617 and as I'm sure you've seen for yourself, these parabolic movements like the one we saw before in 2016 and 17 is on these parabolic movements, unfortunately do not end very well. They don't have a happy ending as we can see here. So bottom line is this, we just have to get patient and let's see how bitcoin plays us out. We want to see when this parabolic movement eventually is going to fade, eventually is going to run out of steam. And let's see where the retracement comes down to. The balance of probability suggests that we need to pay very close attention to the weekly averages that I just mentioned. Again, these key levels that we saw right here near the 50005000200 levels, and let's see if a potential retracement down to these levels. Would it hold the support levels and bounce off or what? Let's go right through them, in which case that could open up different kinds of scenarios.

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