In other words, do you see anything on the charts that is potentially bullish or positive for bitcoin?
And by the way, guys, I think you're going to like this video because you might be surprised and perhaps shocked by the answer. So what I want to do in this video is to go back and challenge every assumption I've made in my recent videos. As you may have noticed from my most recent videos about Bitcoin, for example, this one and this one. I have been rather bearish on bitcoin. And by the way, if you go back and watch those videos again, you will notice that I've been consistent and logical in my justifications and my assumptions in those videos. Now, here's what I want to do in this video, despite the fact that I'd been bearish on Bitcoin in the last couple of videos. What I want to do therefore and this video is to challenge those assumptions and in fact going against those very assumptions that I had in the last few videos and I want to see actually is there a possibility or probability that I'm wrong?
Now, why am I doing this? And by the way, guys, if you're watching this video on YouTube, please do me a favour and do yourself a favour and do not fast forward this video. I know how it works on YouTube. A lot of people don't have the patience to sit through a whole video, so they're just fast forward and missed the good points. Please listen to everything I have to say in this video because it is extremely important to understand the thinking process behind it. So why do I want to challenge all my assumptions? Because all the best traders in the world, if you go and read a book market wizards, for example, you will find the best traders and investors in the world. Like Paul Tudor Jones, he said something like this. He said, every day, I assume every position I have is wrong. Remember guys, the great traders and investors in the world, they don't have an ego about themselves.
They don't take things personally. They know that it's all about probabilities and not about certainties. So it's important to challenge your assumptions. Number two, the psychologist, professor Jordan Peterson, who you might've heard about, he said something very interesting recently and he said that imagine you have a map in your hand and you're trying to find your way around an area and an area you're not familiar with, and then after many hours you suddenly realize you're lost because the map you've been following for the last few hours is not corresponding with reality. So the map that we often are following in our hands often does not correspond to the real world. And that's by the way, I think is a great analogy for life. By the way, if you're under the age of 25, you probably have no idea what I'm talking about. That if you speak to someone who's over the age of 35 or maybe in the late forties, they will tell you.
I guarantee you, they will tell you that often. The assumptions we make in our young age when we're very young, we find in later age to be completely false and nonsense. So guys always challenge your assumptions. And three, we want to follow the scientific method, which means what? We must falsify our theory to prove it, not confirm a theory, but falsified. Why? Because if your theory can still survive falsification, then it's likely true. So I want to bring your attention now to this monthly chart of bitcoin and this is a chart of bitcoin that spans many years. So I'm looking at a chart of bitcoin now from 2013, 14 down here. And then the eventual gradual rise of Bitcoin from 2016 as you can see here, all the way to 2017. This is the peak in 2017 at 20,000. And of course the drop that occurred this year towards the levels we are in right now in 2018 our guys.
So that's the monthly chart of bitcoin. And the reason why I'm looking at the monthly chart is because I want to show you some key important levels. Okay? I think I look at this chart and you will notice this particular moving average on my chart. Now that Blue Line you see on my chart is what's called a 21 monthly average.
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Let me just repeat that. A 21 monthly exponential moving average or ema and what an average line with a blue line does. It averages out the price of Bitcoin for every 21 months going back to the past and that is a key level in technical and chart analysis. Now you will notice that despite the fact that bitcoin has dropped since December, so that was the December peak and that was the drop that we had since then, but notice that actually we're still resting above the 21 monthly average.
We have not gone below that level and this is why guys, I've said this over and over again, why I refuse to accept the fact that bitcoin is in a bear market. Bitcoin is not in a bear market. Anyone who tells you that it isn't a bear market is wrong. Why? Because as long as bitcoin remains above the 21 monthly average, there is absolutely no reason why we should assume that it is in a bear market. If you look at other crypto markets, for example, light coin, and perhaps some other Cryptos, you will notice they are below their 21 monthly average. Those markets are in a bear market, but bitcoin is not. If you think about it, actually bitcoin has been an upward trend for the last few years and all of this, all this drop is nothing more than a correction as you can see, a correction to the previous rally.
Okay? So no, I don't believe that Bitcoin isn't a bear market unless and unless bitcoin closes, in other words, if it goes below that 21 monthly average and closes below it. So in other words, if bitcoin goes and closes below that Blue Line, the 21 monthly average, then yes, then we're officially entering a bear market. And also when you think about it, that makes sense because that means also we're breaking key market structure. If you think about it, these, the previous lows that bitcoin made back in January, the April low. Then of course the June lowe's have you formed here. So in other words, if bitcoin breaks this line, this near to 6,000 or 5,000, 700 level and closes below that support level, and of course closes below the Blue Line, the 21 monthly average, that of course confirms we're entering a bitcoin bear markets. But as it is, as things stand right now, that has not happened.
So if there's one positive points for Bitcoin, that is it the fact that despite the drop of hat in Bitcoin, we're still maintaining ourselves above the 21 monthly average and above the support level. Okay? So that's one point in favour of the bulls. Is there any other positive points that we can mention? Absolutely, yes. For example, if we actually connect these highs. So if I connect these highs and draw a line across the bottom here, you can actually say that bitcoin right now is sitting inside the triangular or pennant formations and this triangular information often can be continuation patterns and if you're not familiar with this term continuation pattern, what that simply means is this, that these patterns often showed that the previous trend, the previous trend in bitcoin can continue. It can continue provided that bitcoin can escape from this pen information.
In other words, if it does something like this, so we've got his pen and formation is triangle formation, and if bitcoin can see strength that can push it outside and above this trend line here, this downward sloping trend line that could potentially signify a transition from a correction they were forming right now into a potential bull market. In other words, the bullish scenario for Bitcoin is first of all, to remain above the 21 monthly average and above this support level that is near to 6,000 to 5,700 level here and it must be able to successfully break out of this downward sloping trend line. Push above it. And continue with momentum higher. That would be the bullish scenario for bitcoin. Now there's a difference between saying that something is possible and that you have a bullish case for bitcoin and saying is it likely to say if it's probable?
So yes, the answer is yes, we do have a potential bullish case for Bitcoin, but the big question is, are they likely, and I've got to say to you the way things are shaping up right now in Bitcoin, the way things have been happening so far in Bitcoin, especially what we've seen in the recent movements in Bitcoin, the recent failed rallies and Bitcoin, I have to tell you that unfortunately I do not think that the bullish case for Bitcoin is likely yes, you can make a bullish case for bitcoin and you can say here's the British scenario, but I, if I had to make a choice out of 100 out of 100 percent, and if I said what's probability would I give to it, I would not give it a very high probability. I would not give it, for example, a 60 to 70 percent probability.
I would probably give it about a 30 percent or 35 percent probability, which is a low probability. Now, you might disagree with that. I understand that. I'm sure there are many people out there who might disagree with that and they might say no. Those bullets scenarios or Bitcoin are actually very likely. Well, that's fine. Uh, but of course I'll cover the reasons why I think those other scenarios are unlikely in a separate video. There is a video that I made some months ago back in April and the video is right here and I'll put that for you at the end of this video so you can watch it were explained. The dangerous pattern to bitcoin must avoid. And I said, Bitcoin must not forum this dangerous pattern to avoid falling into a bear market and indeed falling into a downward trend. So go and watch that video. I've explained that in full details, but the bottom line is this, guys, while I try my best to be open minded and I certainly want to be open minded, I think that while you can make the British case for Bitcoin and it's certainly plausible, uh, on the balance of probabilities, I think that it's rather unlikely and again, we can cover that in a separate video.
Alright guys, now let me know what you think. Do you see the bullish case for bitcoin being more likely or do you see the bearish case? We're both going being much more likely and let me know that in the comment section and I'll see you guys in the next video.
Thank you very much. Indian at this video health, please give it a thumbs up.