What to do if you miss a cheap Bitcoin on a 4000 k range?
If you have missed a cheap Bitcoin buying point, you have only two options. These two ways mentioned in the video. Will we see a cheap Bitcoin again this year? Maybe, there is a chance.
Next question I want to address that I receive often is I haven't fully allocated, or I don't have any yet, and the market's gone much higher than I thought it would get too. I'm waiting for pool back, but should I buy now? And you know this question gets old, but I want to answer it because it's a legitimate question that people have and my answer has always been throughout this process that now is the time to get your position. But with the caveat that if you get in now that you will be okay with or prepared for a retracement of 30 to even 40% in this market. And in one of the previous videos, I showed that during the last bull market, we had frequent and consistent 30 to 40% retracements in the market. But if you want to wait for a 30 or 40% retracement, this market, you may not get that.
And if for example, we haven't had one yet, we had an about 18% retracement recently, not enough for anybody that was waiting for 30 to 40% pullback to reload. And what's happened since is the market has moved up by 40 to 50% each time, and now you're sitting at a point where if you are waiting for 30% retracement, you'd still, we would be buying in at a level that is above what you were waiting for. Okay, so I know as the price gets up and goes higher and it's up 180 almost 200% of the bottom, you start to think, well, it just has to be now. Right? It's almost like walking into a casino and looking at a roulette table and seeing ten reds in a row, and you think, well, blacks next there has to be black. Right? There is no reason why it's the be on the other way.
There have been 10 red spins, but of course we know that each spin is independent and is 50 50 chance. And it's not an exact analogy, but gives you the sense that if you're looking at this prior move, well, this recent move and thinking, well, it's over extended. It's gone too far. It has to pull back round now. Then I think you're not looking at this market from the correct lens. What we're seeing right here is a massive scramble to accumulate bitcoin. And in my opinion, and this is only an opinion, it's not based on any, on any sort of evidence of scientific proof, but just my experience of the markets and what I see in this, in this tape and what we've seen since the, this zone here around the 6,000 and the drop, I believe that, uh, all the, all the sellers are obviously exhausted.
They're out of this market. Most either capitulated in this area here or capitulate June, the massive decline into the four year cycle low. Then we had this long period of accumulation. There was additional heavy accumulation. This area, there was accumulation in this area, but this candle right here where I came out with my four year cycle low was in, this was the Aha moment. This was the point in the, uh, in the rally here where supply completely dried up and then um, price discovery took over and the market has moved higher since I believe there is just not enough pick coin going around right now. There is far too much demand for Bitcoin, new money, not old money, new money and we've had the rotation now this cycle here is over. This is a new four year cycle. This is the new accumulation phase of a four year cycle and it's hungrier than it was in the prior cycle.
We are seeing gains much earlier in the cycle than we did last time and I think people were just fooled by this last four year cycle where they think, oh look at the citrus accumulated. I mean, and I'm guilty of this as well, but I'm not guilty to the center to the point where I'm stubborn in any one view. I let the market dictate what it wants to do and not try and adapt as fast as possible. Unfortunately, a lot of people have not adapted to to this cycle and this cycle is different to the last cycle. This one took a long time to form and to start building out of this lower accumulation area. This time around than whether it's because there's more awareness or whether it, because from a macroeconomic standpoint or from a wealth standpoint, we have a rush to to safety or Russ to buy these types of assets that aren't correlated to general markets.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
There's many reasons why it's the case, but I believe right here we have a level of accumulation that doesn't seem to me like it wants to edit anytime soon. I don't believe this is highly speculative, right? I believe we are accumulating and we have seen three or four weeks of accumulation in this eight to $9,000 range. I don't know. I don't see why I got to be perfectly honest with you, why we couldn't see a fairly fast move to 12 to $13,000 over the next three to four weeks and then pause for three or four more weeks in the next cycle, next 60 days cycle, and then go again and then go again. I don't see a reason why we couldn't be at $20,000 by October or November. Okay. It's not a prediction, it's just a read of where the market is going and in general, my rule of thumb is where price appears to be heading or where price is heading in a certain direction.
There's a very good chance then the future, it's gonna be somewhere beyond in that direction and we need to clearly look at this chart. What do you see? You see a directional strong directional trend and move to the high side and if you don't think price is going to go up here and you're expecting it to go down here, then basically you're predicting that this trend is going to end and it's based on very little evidence and in general, when markets are trending with such consistency or is such a force, they will most likely end up continuing that trend for much longer period than you'd expect. So stop fighting this trend and stop trying to get a better price by 10 20 or 30% you're missing out on getting established and getting that position before it goes up to maybe 20,000 and then you don't know from there where it goes, you know, my price targets, you've seen my previous videos, I have no idea when we get to that level, but you want to stop messing around with the allocation and just get the allocation.
Be Happy with that because you have a longterm strategy in mind. If you're on this journey, the target is 56,000 at the 1 trillion market cap level, but probably in the six figure range, a hundred hundred and 2,550 and over 200,000 as well. So we're talking about four figures, not five. We're talking about four figure price still, right? We're below the 10,000 point and our target is six figures. So we're skipping an entire figure there. That's our target. So worrying about catching the small move. And I know I'm repetitive here, I've said the same thing in a couple of different videos. Um, but getting a position now really doesn't matter at what level still when you're talking about the hundred and 50 to $200,000 price targets that we've talked about. Okay. And because bitcoin now has more legitimacy that had four years ago during the last start of the four year cycle, I think this is why you're seeing, um, much more flows coming into this asset class because there's much more trust in this.
We're also seeing the same type of move more recently in gold. And here is a monthly chart of gold and you're seeing this massive foundation here, the eight year cycle low. And then now we have this massive candle here. Both on the weekly is showing something similar, but on a monthly multiple touches of a resistance area that is now broken through. I think we've broken through may spend some time consolidating just above that breakout point. But when you look at this chart, right, you're seeing flows into gold, which also is a zero interest asset, uh, with obviously thousands of years of history as a hedge and as an asset that has no counterparty risk. You own gold. You own gold free and you have no obligation to anybody else. It is pure money. And bitcoin I don't think is at that status just yet, but it is catching on and it is getting to that point where it has very similar properties.
It has similar properties now of course. But in terms of trust, because this all about trust gold itself obviously as as many like to point out is just a rock, right? It's, it's, it's a natural element but it has value because of its scarcity and because people have trust in its issuance that it cannot be manipulated and it cannot be produced out of thin air. And that scarcity in that trust has value as a store of value and bitcoin is, has achieved, is achieving more and more widespread trust and faith. And that's why you're also seeing this type of move now and again, we will see 30 to 40% pullbacks. I don't advise waiting for those to buy. If you have extra capital above and beyond your standard risk, um, the standard risk allocation that you want to have for Bitcoin and you want to deploy some war than maybe on a 30% pullback, that's when you deploy.
But in general, um, I'm looking at this 10 week moving average and you know, this to me looks orally, people think it's speculative and it's unsustainable. But to me this looks orderly and I don't want to discount that. So I want to zoom out now, and this is not just for hopium purposes, right? But I want to zoom out and, and just emphasize again that, um, you know, the goal is much higher, right? The goal is all the way up here at the $200,000 range in my opinion. And again, we're talking about a very small portion of that move. So as four year journey hurdlers, that's our goal. Keep that in mind. It's nice to see this type of move in the short term. It's nice to see portfolio of a hundred, 150 200% but we're going for a 40 x move and we're looking at a two x move and three x move right now.
So we have a long way to go and it's going to require a lot more patients. It's going to require being able to sit in these positions with massive gains. And if all goes well, once we get to 20,000 above, the gains will be even bigger. And you need to prepare yourself now for those those gains after though to come and by being prepared, then you won't feel the need to sell on a 40 or 50% decline or you won't feel as if the gains are too much where you do need to sell. Now again, the last thing I want to end with, the caveat is this does not mean it's going to happen. Okay? I don't want you to feel that, that I'm saying that this is a guarantee or a certainty because there's not, there was no such thing in anything we do investing or trading related.
Um, and for that reason, you need to keep your allocation reasonable relative to your overall wealth. And I've talked about my 10% rule. Um, now, yes, I am older and more established, I have more diversified assets. So for 10%, to me, not the end of the world, but for many of you that you're looking at these charts and you're thinking, thinking about this as if you have to put everything in and risk everything to make everything. And again, I want to say that that's not the way you should approach this. Should, should you or could you allocate more than say the 10%? Yes, you could. Um, if you're younger and you, you know, you have got, um, more time on your hands, of course you can risk more. But just my general rule is, um, this like anything else as an investment and investments, uh, and not guaranteed by any means. So that's the four year journey video update provided today of hope you enjoyed this. Again, as always, leave any comments that you, that you're like, um, good luck. Stay strong and be patient. All the best.