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How to HOLD Bitcoin in 2020, and what targets we could hit this year? How to earn life-changing profits from Bitcoin HODL and how do not chase price movement in a drastic volatile BTC market.

It's good to be back. It's been a been a month since the last video, actually just slightly over one month and not a whole lot to talk about in terms of price changes since that last video. But I think, um, this is a prudent time to talk about the outlook for 2020. What lies ahead. Some of the possibilities. Also take a quick look back at where we've come from. Take a review so to speak of the um, you know, the path so far that Bitcoin's taken in 2019. How that relates to the initial, uh, kind of idea that I presented with the four year cycle back, um, about a year ago now. In fact on YouTube. And I want to cover that and also cover some member questions that pop up. In particular. We have three or four questions that seem to come up more frequently than everything else and those are on the agenda here. Most importantly, the idea that, um, uh, we've got these cycle set up potentially getting longer. I want to talk about the myth of of lengthening cycles and then talk about a little bit about buying coins and why I think that's a bad idea going forward. Talk very briefly about the stock to flow ratio. Talk about the Bitcoin having then some closing points that I want to cover. So it's going to be a pretty jam packed video. Don't know how long ago for a bare with me and I'm glad you're here. Let's go.

Okay. As always, just want to quickly mention that I'm not a registered broker or advisor. This is not financial advice. What I tried to do is just give you some insight into my thinking and my process, how I'm approaching this asset class, how I'm approaching this market. Um, there's a good chance that I will be wrong. That's just the nature of trading and investing and speculating as well. So you need to be mindful of that. There is not one person on this planet that knows what's going to happen, let alone in crypto or anything else. We try and use the information ahead to provide us with an edge and we try and mitigate any risk around that. And that's kind of what I'm trying to do here. And I try and point out, um, a champion in all aspects of investing and trading and how I approach this market.

 

And it's important for you to not just listen to what I have to say and take only what you need or want to, to fit a bias that you may have from, from my message. I know a lot of people seem to do that. They talk about, um, maybe some of the price predictions or at least where I think price might be headed and kind of ignore the rest of the, uh, sort of the caveats or the downside scenarios. And I may present. And I think that's very dangerous. It's a total package as a total viewpoint that I think you should, uh, if you're gonna listen to this, you should try and, um, you know, encompass all of that thinking that I have to offer. Okay. And then lastly, I have no affiliates, no sponsors. I don't have an agenda for you. Um, in terms of, um, trying to get something from you.

This is free information free, um, free to you and anybody who wants to view it, um, you are free to do what you want. With that information. I ask nothing of you perhaps maybe a like or a subscribe on the channel. But otherwise if you ever see a referral link on any of my pages, then please call me out on that. My whole goal here is to simply give back when I can. And also if there isn't agenda I going to tell you it is to spread the word of Bitcoin. I am a big believer in Bitcoin beyond just the speculation beyond just the financial gain. That's obviously a measurement or a yardstick, but I really am a believer in the sovereignty that this technology and the solution provides. Um, I run multiple nodes, three, three nodes in fact that I've built myself and manage not very difficult, but I think it's important and I try and read up as much as I can on this technology and its future.

So for me, I am passionate about it. I do believe in that even though, um, my angle is more from the investing and trading perspective, I still think it's very important that, uh, I do my best to get the word out and to drive adoption drive demand. I think that is the only way that we can ensure that this succeed over the long run. Uh, it's off to a great start, but we need everybody to get deeper into this, to get beyond this speculation aspect of this beyond the get rich thinking and get behind this technology and uh, for the right reasons. Okay. So, uh, my only request of you is go out and if you like this video, share with somebody else as well and see if we can get other people, new people to come into this space and to help.

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So first item on the agenda is where we have come from 2019. In fact, it really begins in December of 2018 that was my first video calling for an end to the four year cycle, the previous four year cycle. Of course that is, um, the price actually at that point was down to run about $3,700. The market was in a free fall and sentiment was as bad as you can get. Obviously some of the old coins were down or most of the all coins were down or all down by more than 90%. Most of them down by 96 to 99%. So it was pretty much a bloodbath. Um, at that point I was looking at the four year cycle low coming up and essentially my call was to buy now don't worry about the lows. If you have a longterm horizon, it's going to basically not matter at what price you get.

It's low enough Lowe's and near. So go and buy. Um, three or four months after that, the April breakout in the market essentially confirmed what I had already suspected. I was already positioned of course long and had told everybody a couple of times to buy a long. But the four year cycle in my opinion at that point was confirmed. And the next call to buy before it became too late was made in April, 2019. In that video in April, I pretty much laid out a hypothetical path, one of them at least, but my primary view at least that Bitcoin was going to spend most of 2019, uh, essentially below $6,000 or all, all that time below $6,000 and accumulating in accumulation phase of the next secular bull market over the next four year cycle. That obviously in hindsight has already turned out to be incorrect. But, uh, the point of that video was not to worry about the price action necessarily to trust that the next four year cycle low was in place and that you need to not, if you're investing in a long timeframe, need not worry about the day to day, week to week, and even mumps a month for that matter, price fluctuation in Bitcoin because you're now invested for a two to three year period and looking at a potential six figure sum for Bitcoin couple of years out.

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And that was the goal and the upside surprises were potentially going to come that there may be a chance that breaks higher. But the fact, well, the idea was that we would spend most of 2019 I'm accumulating and moving up towards a six or $7,000 range. And I think that's important because a lot of people look at where Bitcoin is today coming off a six month decline or actually seven month decline from $14,000 down 55% and that's the only thing that they seem to want to focus on, even though they have a longterm timeframe. Let me bring that up real quick. So here's the weekly, everyone's focused on this decline right here and chooses to ignore the, uh, position of Bitcoin right now relative to the 40 cycle low. And we have to take all of that in context when we're looking at this. And that's because either people were just afraid, afraid of losing money over leverage or have already lost too much money.

And what they want to focus on is the negative aspect and choose that timeframe for that bias, ignoring the fact that they wanted to invest or were invested for the long term. When you look at this from a longterm perspective, all I see is one very simple fact that four year from the four year cycle low, only just a slightly over one year ago, even at a 50% decline in the market, the Bitcoin or Bitcoin is up 160% now, there was no other actual asset class in the world that can keep going up with this type of gain where a lot of the participants are upset or have lost money. And that speaks I think in general to the immature or the inexperienced nature of a lot of the people involved in this space and the fact that there isn't enough discipline here in this space.

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But for those who can appreciate the longer timeframe, which is what I've been trying to illustrate now for all the videos, when you view the market from a very, or from a longterm lens and appreciate and zooming out where it's come from and where based on this secular trend, where Bitcoin is likely or potentially going, then you begin to appreciate the fact that the shorter term moves, even though this is a six or seven month in nature, um, should be ignored at all costs. And if you don't, then you'll fall victim and you fall into the trap of, uh, like you did right here of capitulating at the very wrong time in a secular uptrend like it is today. So I just wanted to point that out. Um, in fact, I'm going to come back to this video. I want to play a seven minute clip from the April, 2019 video that talks about Bitcoin staying all the way underneath this line up until the, um, January timeframe where we are today. And I, and I'm gonna do that because it's a segue into my next topic about sort of where Bitcoin is heading and explaining this move to 14,000 in the context of a larger move, so here is the video, the 800 to 6001st thing I believe is that this 6,000 or 50 $806,000 level, I'm Bitcoin is going to act as some significant resistance. It provided significant support on the way down in the bear market. There was repeated and repeated attempts to break, but a lot of that everybody thought that was going to hold and the market was going to go up. I did not and I don't want to get into necessarily why at this point, but from a descending triangle standpoint, I think the breakdown here was obvious, but at the same time there's going to be a lot of resistance at this point when it comes back up to test that area. I don't know when it comes to test that area, that's, that's the key or the problem right now. I don't know exactly when we test that point, but I think it will happen sooner than later.

Um, we could even get that in the next week. We can get the next few days. We don't know, but let's just say for argument's sake, we'd get up here and we'd test. That would just be the first test. I think at some point, and I'm just going to draw this in, can can loosely, right some point. Maybe around the August timeframe we get down and I don't think we get any way in the end necessarily. The December lows, we probably get closer to the February lows. Okay. Around about 33, 3,400. Um, again, arbitrary numbers and throwing out. It's more about time. So I think we get down here and we scare the hell out of all the lungs. They get worried that it's been kind of seven or eight months since the low. It's taken too. It's now reversed lower. They start to panic, they're too leveraged and of course they get, they bail out.

Talked about that five minutes ago. Let's move on here then. I think we come up when we kind of start testing this area a few times now. I don't know if we can get above that period, that bet, that 6,000 point in 2019. But I'll be honest with you, I've got to be patient here. Takes time to build a solid foundation, a solid base in any new new four year cycle. But at some point we probably do get above this $6,000 level. And once we get above that, we may drop a quickly back down, but then we get it back above and then that same level begins to act the support. Okay. And then we can begin to find an area that has, um, you know, less, less weight and less friction and we will then begin to accumulate or to begin to, to rally higher with a little more intensity and velocity.

Okay. So welcome back. So the point of that was to essentially illustrate, well, actually one point that it does illustrate is that nobody's right all the time. Okay. I did not expect this big move higher, but I held my position all the way through. I didn't dump it. Um, and I didn't get scared in this area and I had, I held the hallway through. So, um, like many of you, I'm also still up 160% on my position and it's been relatively pain free. Um, but the other point I want to really illustrate straight is the fact that as I said, I thought price would be in this sort of six to $7,000 range by this point in the year. But people still want to focus on the decline since the June top and then, and try and tell us that, uh, because we've had this 50% decline here that the bear, the, you know, the bull market is never going to get off the ground.

It's still a bad market. We're heading for 2000, $3,000 price prints. But essentially all that's happened is we had this huge impulse move and, and there are many theories and reasons why the coming out of a deep bear market right here at an 85% correction. Um, there was a lot of short covering initially. Then there was a lot of, a lot of whales and other people that pushed the market higher than those. A whole lot of FOMO and retail. Um, obviously a lot of people got hurt. Again, didn't learn the lesson of not getting in early, getting in late, getting too much leverage, not being able to hold it in a way down. Whatever the reason that this impulse move occurred. I think what also happened was it's unique to Bitcoin in terms of its price action of the past cycles. People weren't expecting that.

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And I'm including that. I was expecting more of an accumulation down in this bottom area going higher. Nobody really expected this and everybody jumped in full mode in thinking it's going to go right above 20,000 rapidly and quickly again. And it okay. Um, but essentially I think what's still happening is if we look at it from a longer term trend, I still think we're heading higher like this. So all we did was we overshot significantly to the upside and we're now reverted back to the mean. Okay. Or back to something similar to prior previous bull market, uh, accumulation phases. I think now one year removed and I don't know if that's today and we'll cover that in a little while. I don't know if that's starting right now with this big weekly bar that I'm showing you here. It's irrelevant to me right now and we've seen other ones, but at some point this down trend is going to end.

I think it's going to end very soon and I think there's going to be a continuation of that accumulation phase and then eventually we're going to get more into an awareness phase up in this area here and then the ball Michael will continuous such. So I just want to point that out. I don't think there's anything wrong with Bitcoin sitting 160% higher today, just 12 months later if you, and the fact that there is so much negative sentiment still out there towards Bitcoin because of the decline of recently tells us that we're still very, very early in the next four year cycle. Bull fees, still a lot of negative sentiment. There still a lot of people hurting from this. Um, you know, for misadventure and it doesn't help that a lot of the old coin space where a lot of people are exposed to a very few people are 100% and only 100% exposed to Bitcoin.

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A lot of people are overly exposed to old coins. And so even though Bitcoin might be up 160%, most of the old coins are down the down certainly versus BTC. A lot of them are down versus a Fiat currency and that's hurting. So the sentiment is uh, therefore, um, expectedly bearish and negative. And that's good for from a, you know, a new bull market perspective. That's, that's where we want to be sentiment wise. So, uh, plenty of time left and plenty of room left to go higher from this point. So I think in summary for this point on the agenda, we are at aware, I had expected that we would be a year out. How we got here, um, was not how I expected, but holding onto positions was the message. And the only message I wanted to give you nine months ago in a year ago to ignore price and focused on holding your position. And for those that did, you're now sitting pretty with a strong hand up 150, 160% and ready for hopefully what would be the next exciting stage of 2020 bull market.

So the 2020 outlook where we go from here. And what is the four year cycle view? Well, I think it's kind of just what I've been talking about in most of these videos. If you go back to the original four year cycle video, if I go back to the one in April, uh, the fact that we are roughly at the point from a price perspective in the cycle that I thought tells me well that we are still essentially on track for that longer term narrative and the possibility of Bitcoin breaking out through 20,000 and doing a five or 10 X, uh, like it has done in the prior four year cycles. Nothing of that has changed for me. I think we're going to get, so I'm not going to be here to try and predict price. Obviously in April I didn't do a great job of the short term price, but I think we have a good chance 70% or so that we have a low right here.

Maybe no a 15% chance that we come back at some point retest this area low six thousands and then maybe exceed that on the low side one more time, maybe as low as the high five thousands and then we go and the downtrend and then begin a nice and solid consistent uptrend. That's what I think. I still think there's probably a 10% chance, 15 maybe. I don't know how high it is that this here is a four year cycle top. Now I get a lot of people say, well, you know it, is your four year cycle dead or is it a, is it not working out? And and some trolls, we even laugh, for example, that you know, it's going all the way down. Well, look, let me be very clear here and please pay attention. If you want to learn more about cycles. Cycles are only a snapshot over time.

When I say you know, I believe Bitcoin maybe going up to the six figure range over this four year cycle period. That is just, that's not the four year cycle. That's just seeing that based on prior four year cycles. I believe in this next four year cycle we're going to see something similar. Repeat. Okay. Based on where it stands in the technology evolution based on where it stands from a market cap standpoint, there are reasons why I believe the next four year cycle be similar to the prior four year cycles and that's why we're going to head up towards that area, but that doesn't mean it has to happen that way. There's a chance that this four year cycle is what we call left translated in the prior videos and that prior, the markings is still here. I show a bull trend of three years in a bear trend of one year.

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That's a typical right translated cycle, meaning that for the majority of the four year period, price is moving higher and where the top occurs is the peak of the cycle and then the actual end of the cycle is the low. And because this is a bull cycle, it spent more time going up. Anything that spends more time going up than going down should in theory at least have from one load to the next low aid appreciation in price. And I just think we need one more of those cycles. So for that reason, I think we have a 150 week move higher. Maybe it's only 120 maybe it's even longer. We don't know. Point being I see repeat like cycle here over the next 100 and let's call it, I'm sorry about that. 100 well at the moment here it's 110 that's outlined. Um, but it could be up to 150 point being that all the way up into this 2021 timeframe and more likely to be the late 2021 timeframe.

I see the coin heading higher, similar to prior cycles. How we get there again is kind of where we were in the April video and last year's video. I don't know. Right, but I would say that at some point, maybe by the end of this year, 2020 there's a chance we get up to test that 20,000 will the all time high levels. I don't know. I think there's 14,000 high. It's probably going to give us more of a resistance than this 20 level high. If you do recall back, it spent just two or three weeks going up from 10 to 20 and then just through four weeks coming back down below 10,000 as well. There's not much up there. There's more up here between 10 and more recently at least between 10 and 14 I think once we clear 14 I think we'll get some resistance at 14 at some point in the, in the maybe the October, November timeframe and potentially shoot through.

I don't think we'll get as much resistance as we probably expect at that $20,000 level. Again, not here to predict price. I'm looking at this more from a time standpoint and looking at prior cycles and trying to come up with a guide that's going to help. So let's just say for argument's sake that we spend, I'm going to try and draw this looking at a case. So here's that $14,000 level, let's call it maybe July. Okay, let's maybe a couple of attempts, maybe a big shakeout of some type and then maybe not so pronounced there, but you get the point a and then back up to this. Here's December. So maybe not until January of next year, maybe nine till, uh, let's just call it maybe until February or March of next year. Do we not get to the $20,000 level? But as we've seen during prior bull markets and the type of behavior that you see in other asset classes, when they make an all time high, there is a level of FOMO that's next level, next level retail like FOMO.

And for that reason you begin to see a real acceleration in the gains and possibly just over maybe no more than a nine month period. It could even be much less than that. Do you get the final extension from one prior bull market high to the next bull market high? We saw that in 2017 as well and we saw that in prior bull markets as well. You get this really sharp move of a just a number of months now, uh, again, don't know how long it takes. Let's just call it, uh, let's call it just for argument's sake, up to 120 by September, 2021. And there is the um, the bear box, uh, case. So this here is, that's a stretch. This out there is 150 bars, which is 150 weeks. That's three years over four year cycle going higher. That leaves one year of a cycle going lower into the next low, maybe as far back as, so the 25,000, 30,000, I'm not sure what the range is, but if prior to bear markets are any indication, we may even say we get to the one 50,000 range.

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Again, just for argument's sake, don't go out and get all excited because I said that, but let's call this an 80% decline. So there you go. 80% decline from one 50 is down to the 30,000 area. And then you know, you get all the way back and you know, you get down to 25 so you retrace most of those gains just as we did. If you look at this bull market right here, um, the prior high back in November of 2013 was that sort of 11, 12, 1200 area and we retraced all the way back down to the 3,100 area. So a significant retracement, significant retracement in all bear markets for, for, for Bitcoin. And that level of retreatment is also a function of just the amount of gains that you see in the bull market phase as well. Uh, so the volatility goes both ways in a, in Bitcoin as extreme volatility goes both ways in Bitcoin.

All right, so that really is my outlook for 2020. It doesn't, it doesn't really change much. If you look at prior charts from a year ago. Again, the difference being kind of know how we got to that point which means we may have another different path going forward to this point, we may be doing a 2021 outlook video in one year time and price may be right at the 17 or $18,000 price point but it may have gotten there a whole entirely different part and may have shot up to 30,000 and then came all the way back down or it could have even spent a number of more months down in the six and $7,000 range maybe until the summer and then shot all the way up. Again. The point being is they're up 160% from the bottom. We, if we believe in the bull market narrative going forward, if we believe in the same bull market narrative that presented last year and if you believe in the path it's taken over the last 11 years in general and if you believe in the secular bull market, then you need to hold your position and you need to be patient with, with Bitcoin and again realize the timeframe that you're investing on and stop getting caught up in the social media and all the us and all the price action and the day to day, week to week basis.

It's not going to serve you well. Most of you are probably not experiencing good enough to be able to handle those movements anyway. Trying to get cute, trying to accumulate more Bitcoin for example, is not going to serve you well in the end because the market is too volatile, move too quickly and you're going to be caught offside. Far too often, meaning that you end up with less Bitcoin. Okay. Then you started with, because you tried to get cute on the market and a lot of times you end up buying back, buying back the Bitcoin FOMO, ING at the wrong time because you thought you may be able to get out. Uh, you know, to preserve some short term profit, just don't do that. It never really works. And you know, to be honest with you, there's no reason to do that. Bitcoin if this works.

Okay. And is it, it's an F everything's in F. if it works, we're talking about a 20, 30 X type move. Again, something you don't see throughout history. Um, so don't mess with that. And why are you trying to get more out of something that's already extraordinary? There's no point. It doesn't make any logical sense. It doesn't mean it's not rational to try and get out and get more profit than, than what a, you know, no other asset class can offer you. So just keep that in mind. Keep that always in mind. I think that's a message I've been trying to instill in you from the very beginning. Okay. So that's my outlook. Nothing really surprising, I think to many of you who've been following the channel for awhile. Stick with that as a goal. It's more about the psychology, it's more about the patient.

It's more about the execution than it is about the price. Okay? Just worry about the time. If you have to lock this thing away and not watch another video for another year to do that. What she know, if you keep your risk level reasonable. And again, I've also been harping on risks. Keep your lift your risk level to a point where if the worst case scenario does come out and it doesn't work out again, right? We don't wanna be in a position where we've put everything into this and we've lost. That's not what I want you to do. I'm so not doing that. Of course, it would hurt if Bitcoin collapsed for whatever reason, and spent its entire time down in the three to $2,000 range. Um, but it wouldn't necessarily hurt me that much. I've got in early enough. But for many of you who didn't, you don't want to be in a position where you know you're in debt now because if it was something like that.

So that's also an important piece, an element. I can never do a video without really stressing that because it's kind of that, uh, that risk for now for them feminism system that I have in me and all my trading. I don't like losing, I don't like losing what I've already gained. Uh, I don't mind missing out on a profit. I just don't like losing what I already have and that's just something I've always stuck with and live by. So I think that's very important lesson to have. All right, let's move on. Getting into the memo questions now. And it seems like this one's a popular question and that is, is the cycle getting longer in Bitcoin? And the answer is no, it's not. Cycles don't get longer. Cycles are essentially, I won't call them a fixed length, but their period is relatively fixed and the lows are, the end of the cycles will occur within kind of a reasonable margin on either side of that from a time people on a, I guess a neutral where everywhere else kind of wanting to be talking about the uh, the peaks of the cycle getting longer.

And the peaks can vary and do vary and that's the very nature of cycles. But the troughs do not, where the cycle ends does not change. And that's where every cycle mathematically for the last hundred years since a cycle research, um, became a real serious study. That's how a cycle is measured. It's measured by the low to the low, not the top. The top is one element of the cycle and the top of the cycle determines exactly where the translation of the cycle. So the cycle lows are a consistent timeframe, but the highs are not. And if you see here in an uptrend and you see the black line underneath here, the black line here represents a longer timeframe and a longer cycle. So here's one cycle. And here's the next cycle low. Okay, let's see. Let's call this for argument's sake, a four year cycle low from here to here.

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Each of these could be a one year cycle that are in between. As the four year cycle was going higher, you get the one year cycle topping further along beyond the mid point making this right translated. That's how you get the price gains and then you get a shorter duration lower into the low. Then you have a similar thing in the second and this somewhat of a similar cycle on the third in those, the third may top in the mid point and not so much to the right of it because the gains aren't as much. And then though in the last cycle of the four year cycle, it could be a 16 year cycle on the bottom one here could be a 16 year cycle and these are the four year cycles in Bitcoin. We could be at the third one right now for example, starting that out.

Um, but you see here when the market, when the longer term trend is in a downtrend and it's going to come for Bitcoin, okay, it's not going to go up indefinitely regardless of what model you want to believe. At some point you will get multi-year periods of bear markets and when that happens, the four year cycle is going to top early. It's going to become a left translated cycle. So the idea that these peaks have to go further and further apart is just, well it's just wrong. It's all it is. Um, and it's the peak here that determines the translation of the cycle as it relates to the longer term trend or longer term cycle. And that's how you get that longer term cycle that come down and dip into its final low. So the, the top only affects what does affect the translation, which then drives the longer term cycle and a longer term trend.

And that's the explanation for this. So that's why looking at um, you know, looking at the peaks here, just because you've had one or two consecutive, uh, tops or bubble peaks that were further apart, there's not necessarily or shouldn't mean that the next one's going to be further apart. There's just uh, it's just just clutching at straws essentially. It's not, it's no mathematical logic behind that. Really what you're looking at is the lows. The lows are what count in cycles and not the tops. Okay. All right. This is going to be probably a four or five minute discussion on buying all coins. A lot of people asking me about buying our coins, which ones are like, which ones should I buy? Let me be very clear. This is a Bitcoin huddle story. Not because I only want to focus on Bitcoin, but because I only think you should focus on Bitcoin.

I'm selling the only, for the most part, at least from a longterm standpoint, focusing on Bitcoin and, and all coins for me have no place in a longterm strategy. Now, some of you are going to immediately sort of laugh at this statement. A lot of you are going to scoff at this and going to say, well a theorem did X in 2016, 17 and some other examples did so-and-so, and that's true. And some of them will do that again. But the thought that you're gonna pick the one that did that, um, is just ludicrous. The, uh, the white paper that you'd love so much or the coin that you happen to stumble on in some discord channel or telegram channel or some tweet that got you hooked and excited is not going to get you there. Most likely not going to get you there. There's 5,000 or so coins listed on the market cap coin site, probably running about three, 5,000.

I've already come and gone. Um, so if you think you're going to ride the five, the 10, or even the 20 out of the thousands and thousands to riches, uh, it doesn't make any sense to me. But then only that are you gonna be, are they going to outperform Bitcoin? And I are you going to be able to hold those gains all the way through, not sell and actually capture the gains at the top. If you begin to put all those pieces together, I guarantee you very, very, very few of you are going to be able to do any level of outperformance to Bitcoin in the next two, three years because of that reason.

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But I think more importantly comes back to why, why you believe so strongly in some old coin project and let's get it straight. You don't care about the technology, you don't care about, um, the promise or the scalability or the speed, whatever it is that they have is buzzwords you care about and you're only concerned about making a lot of money. That's what gets peaks your interest. That's what I'm, that's why you bought thousands or millions of some at the moment, worthless coin thinking. If it goes up by however X percent, you're going to be, you know, very rich because of it. Somehow you're going to hold all the way through and you're going to believe in it. And that's what you've convinced yourself. And that's what allows you to risk so much of your capital on a project like that because you kind of hide from the facts that you already know.

Um, but I want to ask you, if we're talking about Bitcoin with a dominant to 75% out there for 11 years, has seen thousands of thousands come and go of coins come and go for your coin to outperform Bitcoin. Bitcoin still has to perform similar to what I outlined previously in this video. Bitcoin is the stable coin of the crypto world. Bitcoin is the path forward for the crypto world. If Bitcoin fails, I can almost guarantee you it's not a case of some other company, some other coin coming along and just taking over the mantle and going, it's not going to work that way. If Bitcoin goes into a bear market for two years or three years or four years for whatever reason, then all those coins you're holding are going to be worthless, completely worthless. So knowing that, okay. And I think that's a statement that I can stand by.

Um, and, and really believe without any bias, if Bitcoin has to go higher on the entire S to to drag the entire space higher with it. So if you already have, if I'm outlining a scenario where Bitcoin is going to go up 10 1520 and 30 X or AK, which is generational like performance, why are you adding in multiple levels of risk? Okay. To get maybe double that performance. It doesn't make any sense. And I mean, I'm not even talking about multiples. It's, it's many hundreds of multiples more rest because you have to pick the right projects in the space of 5,000 coins. You have to be able to hold it if you're on the right one. You have to be able to be disciplined enough to not jump ship to the other one that's doing well. The one that you thought you were going to buy or the one that your buddy bought or the guy that you're following on Twitter bought and you didn't.

And jumping between the two just as it crashes. Well, the one you were holding goes up and various and many different scenarios like that that occurred during very fast and speculative markets. It's just not easy to do. It's almost impossible to do it. I mean for, for most people here riding Bitcoin, 10 X 15 20th 30th is very, very difficult to do. So if you think you're going to ride some alt coin 1000 X of 2000 X, I guarantee you're not. Okay. So don't try and do it. Um, I think the path here, the sound path is to stick with a reasonable allocation, the Bitcoin a reasonable enough where you can hold it all the way through at least two, um, too close to the highs to, to a very nice comfortable level and start to sell some off and start to realize some of those gains and then be ready for the next bear market low in three or four years time and do it again and re accumulate Berea cumulate with significantly more Bitcoin because you have significantly more capital available to you.

Okay, so that's my question on all coins. Please stop asking me. Well you can keep asking, but you'll, you'll kind of get the similar answer again. Uh, I don't believe in, now I will trade all coins and I trade them often enough, especially when I see the entire all coin space doing well in a shorter timeframe. But that's not what we're talking about. All these questions were, which is the project that's going to unseat Bitcoin, which is the one that's going to be the next world reserve currency. Will the next banking coin that all the banks is all of a sudden one, those types of questions, it's not happening. Um, at least if it does happen, the chances of you taking it and running it and next to none. So stick with their coins. My advice. Okay. Lots and lots of questions on the stock to flow ratio looks exciting, right?

 

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Those charts look amazing. I think a lot of you guys love the stock to flow because it points to these huge Richards, right? And it's a model that supposedly is pretty much guaranteed because it has such a high level of backtested um, you know, statistics behind it and so on. Look, I'm not here to um, to tell you right or wrong, I haven't looked enough into it so I'm not qualified enough to critique somebody else's work. It just comes up so often that I want to at least make some mention to it from what I can tell, however, that if you can make the assumption that Bitcoin's demand continues to grow, then there is a lot of logic behind the fact that if the supply rate begins and continues to decline, which is obviously in the code and schedule, then it stands to reason that price will go up.

But I'm not entirely convinced that that logic works all the way through. And maybe my understanding of that logic is incorrect and I apologize if that's the case, but I think the level of demand is not also as important as you think. I think what's more important is what valuation does the market want to place on their total supply of Bitcoin. So I don't think it's as relevant about the amount of new supply that comes onboard. It is. What is the dollar value of all the Bitcoin that's out there that the market wants to have? Okay, so we need to increase, it's all about the demand. If there's this 15 million coins out there today and it goes to 16 million next year, for example, it's really irrelevant. It's how much Bitcoin from a market cap standpoint too. We want to hold, there's a market want to own and hold that's going to drive the price up for Bitcoin.

I think what I'm trying to say here also is that scarcity alone, I know the model is not only about scarcity but known supply and scarcity and the supply alone cannot be a absolute predictor of price or the longterm. There are other variables that I believe may be ignored. Again, I'm using words like maybe, I'm not sure. Okay. Um, but again, I think demand and what the market, um, how much of this the market wants to hold, you know, hedge funds and family offices and people who are buying a lot of the Bitcoin in bulk and not, not a lot of you guys, a lot of you guys kind of want the BTC. You want the Bitcoin, you want maybe one whole Bitcoin to own the whole forever. So I know you guys think more about the, the, the actual Bitcoin number, but I got to tell you, a lot of the big money does not, they care about their dollar waiting of Bitcoin as an element of an overall portfolio or an overall risk strategy.

So they're saying, I want, you know, 10 million exposure, I want 100 million exposure, I want X percent of a portfolio of exposure and so on. So it's all about, in my opinion, again, how much, um, how much the market at this point in this last stage of its evolution, how much the market wants to hold of this asset class that matters. And yes, of course. Reducing the amount of new supplies, not reducing the supply. Okay. Local let to say we do supply to reduce the risk. The inflation rate does have some impact on that clearly. But again, it's all about how much we want to hold and own of this asset class. Okay. Bitcoin having probably the most, I guess not controversial, but the most debated topic in all of Bitcoin. And um, if, if you just listened to what I said about the stock to flow, you probably will have an idea of what I'm about.

What I'm about to see. And that is, I don't really believe much in the Bitcoin having narrative and people were like, what? You have a four year cycle? The Bitcoin having Bitcoin halves every four years. Yes. It's a coincidence as far as I'm concerned. Most or many other major asset classes have a four year cycle. It's a very common cycle. I don't think it plays, I don't have enough evidence at least to say that that's the reason. Uh, it certainly fits well. It helps. Um, but again, I don't think the supply having uh, the new supply issuance having is having an effect that you think it has. It is the most telegraphed event in any commodity. Okay. It's a known event that miners and buyers and everybody can plan for and can and especially now with derivative and futures markets can also um, you know, prepare for.

So I don't think it has any bearing or whatsoever on the technical aspect of the supply demand equation for Bitcoin. However, here's the caveat. It is ingrained in Bitcoin psychology. It's a meme at this point. So it has a psychological impact and effect on the market, uh, that it can help and will help, I think drive the market high. I don't think you're going to see this. Boom, there's the having and then boom goes price because if you look at the having, and here's something people don't want to talk about a lot. If you look at the last bull market and 15 will last having, I should say, um, or 16, it dropped by like, I don't know, 10 or 20% price chopped after the having and took like a month to recover or three weeks to recover. Sorry, I had the chat in front of you, but it dropped.

Right? So, and then if you look at it from a longer timeframe study, it's just the having sits right in the middle of a nice big accumulation and Trent uptrend care. There's a little more evidence that the having in the first, the first having had more of an impact. Um, but not so much now. So in the last one, so I think people are reaching again, maybe it's biased, maybe it's this need to, you know, this get rich thinking and, and, and the speculation aspect of Bitcoin that's driving people to promote this narrative that the next having his, uh, he has all we waiting for, it's going to solve every problem. I just don't see that and don't believe that again, but from a psychology standpoint, it plays a role. Okay. Closing points. Let me try and summarize this pretty quickly. So 2019 was a great year in my opinion.

Even though a lot of people probably lost what didn't do as well in crypto, even though Bitcoin was up year to year, something like 140% amazing years, far as Bitcoin is concerned, I think price today stands roughly or even slightly higher with them where I thought it would a year ago. I think that's a positive overall from a technology standpoint, I think there's been great progress being made. I think the ecosystem, you know, the developer environment, um, I think the amount of new capital, the amount of new onboarding of technology that's coming on is still progressing really, really strongly. So I think overall it's very healthy. Um, the network is continuing to prove very resilient hash rates. Um, you know, continue to, to increase transactions, continue to increase. Uh, I think the whole, uh, the forking, the blockchain size, um, debate is kind of being put to bed, right? There are alternative options out there for bigger blocks and quite frankly, there hasn't been a demand for it.

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One and two, the market is not pricing them that basically the market has said the black, the big blocks don't have a, don't have value, uh, not valid, uh, and not the path forward. And, and there are reasons for that. Technically I believe, uh, I believe it's the whole, mostly it's about the decentralization aspect of uh, and the self sovereignty aspect of Bitcoin, uh, that the big of blocks don't necessarily provide, at least on the future I can in the market I believe is pricing that in. So overall I know that see much that's changed in a year. I'm just as excited as I was a year ago. I still have all my stack and more and I think 2020 is going to be a very good year and I just don't want to look back in a year or two and hopefully you want and look at price at the area we're in, the range that we've been talking about for the last year and not have a position or have a smaller position.

Okay. Again, don't go out and bet everything and get into debt. Of course. Don't do that. I know a lot of you do and it's sad because I know a lot of you lost. I've got the emails and the DMS and I, and I'm sorry about that. Um, hopefully everyone learns from that, but we just don't want to be in the position where we're let an opportunity like this go by and not at least take advantage of it to a significant extent. And that's really my goal. This is the reason why I'm sharing these videos. Hopefully if I can help some of you then that's great. Um, but again, I just want to, and I also one last point this quite a lot of other videos that I've made here on psychology for example, on execution and trading. Go watch them again because they are just as important.

They are important. They are how you get through this next coming period if it does progress. And also if it does decline, like, like I said, there's a 10% chance or so that it lingers for six months, it gets back down to whatever number it is. We just don't know in trading and investing and being prepared at least. So psychologically for that mentally is a, is going to be very important. If we do get to that point, we always have to be prepared for the worst case scenarios as well. All right. I just want to thank you again. If you can give it a like, give it a share, share on social media, share it with friends, get some friends involved, not from a price standpoint. Don't tell him about the massive gains that can come or the riches that can come. Try and explain it. Um, you know, from, uh, from the Bitcoin and what Bitcoin means to you. And hopefully if, uh, if it doesn't mean it doesn't mean anything but speculation, then maybe you should go out and read about first read some books, um, and then get more acquainted with that aspect of it before going out. But that's also important for everybody to do. Again, thank you very much. I appreciate you listing and following, wishing you all the best. Happy 20, 20, uh, prosperous, 20, 20. Good health and happiness. Thank you.

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