The bitcoin four-year cycle is in the December lows right here on a 3000 dollars mark.

Mark the end of the prior four years cycle, a cycle that went for 52 weeks lower in a bear market and 153 weeks high and the bull uptrend for a total of 205 weeks, just three weeks short of a full four years. This video is an update to the four-year cycle video. I published on YouTube around January 15th. A video that was recorded originally back in late December, right when we were looking at this decline here in early to mid-December. I was about a week or two short from this final capitulation here. I think a video was posted on um, I, one of these declines here right at the beginning of December, but this December low here on December 10th, two weeks, the week of December 10th now marks what I believe with and nothing's ever certain in trading and investing, but with a very, very high degree of certainty or, or at least, um, high degree of confidence that the four year cycle low has ended.

 

That four-year cycle low comes at a perfect time in the four-year timing band at 205 weeks and really does not leave any further interpretation for a load come in the future to make or complete the four-year cycle. If you had watched that video back in January, I did talk about the possibility that the February low, the 60-day cycle that was just could exceed on the downside the December low and then that would stretch down to become the four-year Bitcoin cycle low, but that hasn't happened. Instead, what we're seeing here, it's a whole lot of strength into this new four-year cycle and a move now just today above the prior to 60-day Bitcoin cycle highs. So this moves today here in April. The second is essentially for my confirmation that this December low does mark the 40 cycles. We've got too much separation in terms of price but more importantly too much separation in terms of time here for this move to be anything other than the beginning phase of a new four-year cycle for all your investors and huddle is out there.

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Really, the four year cycle was all for you and about you and back in January I made it very clear and in videos since that you don't want to be looking and waiting for further lows, we deep enough and would deep enough in this bear market in terms of price at an 85% decline from the high. And also in terms of time as we already approached the four year cycle timeframe for the next low, this here was the opportunity to start accumulating and as I said many times to make sure that you have a fully loaded position, a position that you're comfortable with, a position that you can take higher and not risk essentially, uh, you know, your livelihood and your family's livelihood, but enough of a position that would make the difference in the long run. Now it is absolutely way early at this point, it is not too late to be invested or fully invested if you did not get and heed that warning and get your allocation, um, correctly.

Its only bitcoin at the moment is only $1,000, essentially an off or maybe $2,000 off the lows here, not even $2,000 off lows in the grand scheme of things. This is going to be a kind of a rounding error to some extent and is not too late. The same time you don't need to panic, right? Um, there's probably going to be now a period of consolidation from miss move, um, and a sideways continuation of a sideways move similar to what we saw when the last four-year cycle ended. So let's go back now four years, almost exactly four years right here and pretty similar timeframes. In fact, if you look at the end of the last four-year cycle coming off of 58-week bare market decline, you see this massive drop on good volume into January as opposed to the recent low, which was December.

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And then you had a nice sort of move higher but then kind of, uh, a partial retest. It really wasn't a retest on the absolute capitulation price points there, but a recessed the least to the closing point of the candles here and then a nice rally higher and this is kind of where we are right here. I think if you can relate the same, if you can overlay, this is a similar type of move here where I think the market has a recognition. Uh, there was also a higher high that was kind of put in here the last time and this is kind of a recognition that the four years if we're tracking the four year cycle load back and then in real time this development is similar to what we're seeing now where it kind of confirms a higher high structure in the market.

Now similar though to today, I don't think we're going to escape at least without something similar to this and this here scared the hell out of a lot of people back then. It came down from, you know, it doesn't look like much here because we're dealing with small numbers essentially. But from a percentage standpoint, from 317 or weighed down to a low of 198 this decline here back in July of 2015 was almost 40% down to the bottom, which is obviously more insignificant. This would have whipped many of the new bulls added a position. It would have wept many of the people buying late. I wasn't late of course in the grand scheme of things, but buying here after sort of a 40 or 50% move these people here, probably a lot of people here leverage a little too much or bore an over position thinking that it's going to continue rapidly higher and then probably gave up a lot of that.

Puked a lot of this out right here before then rallied and never looked back. Now, if we go back to the current period here, um, this is probably something similar. A lot of people probably buying a lot of extra bitcoin right now thinking that we are going to see something phenomenal like this occur and hey, I never want to rule any possibility out in trading and investing, but I feel very, very strongly that this is not going to happen. Not going to see anything like this. And people who are buying with this type of view or scenario in mind are going to leverage up a little too much, was going to buy way too much. They're probably going to either borrow, it may even use a credit card for example, but essentially by bitcoin with funds they can't afford to lose. And then what might happen instead of what's more likely to happen at least is that we get a lot of chopping.

We've may get some higher prices, but we may even get something like this. Okay. And this would come down into the next cycle, the 60-day cycle, and then that type of move would punish anybody that's over-leveraged right here in the short term. So the point of this is that if you're trading, sorry, if you're investing for the long term, if you have that four year cycle play in mind and don't overdo it right here, the type of potential and reward that we have ahead of us for the people who are patient over the next three to four years is so great that you don't need to be leveraging or risking too much capital right here that's going to throw you off position if we do get a nasty shakeout. And if you look at the four-year Bitcoin cycle low here, this was nasty, but this to me was perfectly expected.

Uh, I certainly was short the entire way, um, but we haven't since then had a shake out. So the last shakeout we had with five months ago, bitcoin and actually almost any asset class, if you look at gold as well, how it trades, it does like to inflict a maximum amount of pain on traders and investors. And I don't see how we get above this eventually above this $6,000 resistance area without a major shake out at some point. I'm not saying it's coming this week or next week next month. It may not come until August. Okay. Um, we have to get through a number of these 60-day cycles still, but it's, I'm pretty confident in saying that at some point. And this is Georgia, a few of these here. So we have a 60-day cycle. April, we were looking at another one say in June. Okay. We may not get shake out here until August. So this is joy in something like this.

Of course. All just hypotheticals here. All right, well it looks great until we get the shake out. So let's try and clean this up just a little bit here.

All right. But the point is not for neatness. The point is to say that some point, maybe even as late as they should say August, we get a 60 day to shake out here. We get this really horrific, you know, one and a half thousand to thousand dollar decline even. And that's perfectly normal in many regards. In any market, whether it's a bull or bear market, but even in a bull market, you do get these nasty shakeouts, um, before an asset begins to make another leg higher. So if it wants a breakout above this $6,000 range, it's probably going to shake out all these people that are just getting far too excited about the possibility ahead, buying way too much in the neck and they can handle. And then what ends up happening is that not only do they sell and capitulate on this fear and believe it's going to go down and break below the December lows, but they ended up losing on the extra leverage and they end up losing the strong hand position that Bitcoin at that position in bitcoin that there never was going to give up or didn't want to give up.

 

Um, because of the panic and the fear and the number of losses they're inflicting. So you ended up in a situation where not only are you kind of out of bitcoin or have a very light load because of this type of sell-off, but you end up losing overall on the market. And then something like this in a new four-year Bitcoin cycle if it was to occur is more likely to be a V-shaped recovery in price. So we would get a shake out, but then we would get an almost immediate bounce back to the point where I started breaking down from to begin testing that zone before maybe wanting to come back out and then begin a more sustained full market trend. Now that the accumulation phase is over, I also want to point out that from a short term standpoint and the trading standpoint, I'm able to flip between viewpoints on a daily chart rapidly.

So I'm not going to give you and I will refuse to give you day to day views on where I think the market's going to go because again, you know, I can be short one day and can be long the next day. So it's a, it's pointless in doing that. So take a lot of these short term lines and squiggles. I'm enjoying, um, with that perspective in mind. These are guides. I like to focus on time. I am a time specialists more than anything else. When the with the study of cycles and the lines of drawing here as simply more for guiding purposes and nothing else. So you know, I don't have a crystal ball here. Um, I like to work with the timeframe more than anything else. So we could also see, you know, a more immediate move lower back here, kind of get below here and then sort of chop sideways a little more and then come back into this point.

I think overall, what I want you to take away from it, from with this analysis is that I now firmly believe, uh, basically a 98% belief, right? Cause there's never 100%. Once you, once you go absolute and stick to an absolute statement, you're going to be a, you're going to be screwed essentially from a trading standpoint. You'll never be able to get away from that view in that bias and you'll be trapped regardless of what price tells you. But I have a kind of a 98% confidence level now that December cycle lowers in and that we are now into a couple of daily cycles, 60-day cycles into the four-year cycle. We are three or four months into the four year cycle and the four-year cycle. If we look at the prior two cycles as our guide and we're try and zoom out, that'll be here I believe will run for approximately 150 weeks.

The prior two cycles ran for 153 weeks of the bull trend and the one before that zooming down was 142 weeks. So again just the guide, just an estimate for planning purposes but looking at around the hundred and 50 weeks to around the October, 2021 time period to a lot of time, right, and a lot of room to move. So Lee as an investor and a hurdler, put that into perspective. How this market's squiggles and wiggles and old isolates here of the next coming three or four months is irrelevant to you as a long term investor. If you continuously are waking up in the morning and checking price, but you're a call yourself a longterm Holler, uh, or investor, then you're doing yourself a disservice by allowing price fluctuations in the short term to influence how you invest in the longterm, very important concept. Please try and and Rudy a PR, appreciate that statement and understand your timeframe and be happy to be in that timeframe from an investing standpoint and ignore what happens just as you should have ignored this three, $2,000 decline.

You're going to ignore to a large extent, even though you're going to be happier of course, but you're going to ignore the one or $2,000 moved higher because your priors is up here. Your prize is a couple of years away and it is up here. Okay? Not designed to now. There's not gay. Everybody really pumped up, but that's really the price. That's what you're in this for. This is the four year cycle horizon that we're looking at. So um, again, let's see if we can kind of give, give you, I'll give you an outlook to ward. I see potentially happening here over the next few months and then maybe what's to stretch it out to the four year cycle top. First thing I believe is that this 6,000 or 5,800 to $6,000 level and Bitcoin is going to act as some significant resistance. It provided significant support on the way down in the bear market.

There was repeated and repeated attempts to break below that everybody thought that was going to hold in, the market was going to go up. I did not, and I don't want to get into necessarily why at this point, but from a descending triangle standpoint, I think the breakdown here was obvious, but at the same time there's going to be a lot of resistance at this point when it comes back up to test that area. I don't know. When it comes to test that area, that's, that's the key. All the problem right now. I don't know exactly when we test that point, but I think it will happen sooner than later. Um, we could even get that in the next week. We can even get the of the next few days. We don't know, but let's just say for argument's sake, we'd get up here and we'll test. That will just be the first test.

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I think at some point, and I'm just going to draw this in, can again loosely, right some point maybe around the August timeframe we get down. I don't think we get anywhere near necessary. The December lows. We probably get closer to the February lows. Okay. Around about 33, 3,400. Um, again, arbitrary numbers I'm throwing out. It's more about time. So I think we get down here and we scare the hell out of all of the lungs. They get worried that it's been kind of, or eight months since the low. It's taken too long. It's now reversed lower. They start to panic, the too leveraged and of course they get, they bail out. Talked about that five minutes ago. Let's move on here then. I think we come up when we kind of start testing this area a few times now. I don't know if we can get above that period, that bed, that 6,000 point in 2019 and go be honest with you.

I've got to be patient here. Takes time to build a solid foundation, a solid base in any nif new four year cycle. But at some point we probably do get above this $60,000 level and once we get above that we may drop quickly back down, but then we get it back above and then that same level begins to act as support. Okay. And then we can begin to find an area that has um, you know, less, less weight and less friction and we will then begin to accumulate or to begin to, to rally higher with a little more intensity and velocity. Okay. So when does the rally in the next four year cycle really take hold? And what you notice here is that most of the gains in the four year cycle occur right near the end and it cooks quickly and rapidly and very few people take full advantage of it and it's just too difficult to do for go back to the original four year cycle.

This is the breakout point right here in January of 2013 the major top occurs in November of 2013 11 months from exceeding the prior high and then rallying in this case from 13 or even like sort of 20 or $30 here to 1,100 that's the gain of the cycle in 11 months. Then if feel look at the prior cycle and you look at the 1100 top from the first four year cycle and you draw a cross. Here's the breakout point to break out. Point occurs in April of 2017 think about that. April, 2017 to December. Now you're talking about only six months of seven months to the next high. So from the April highs of around 1300 to 20,000 pretty much the entire, again, this is when you all time highest come in, right? So for approximately almost four years, we don't have any new all time highs and then we see a sort of 15 x move occur in seven or eight months or 10 months.

I'm sorry, Q confused myself there. But you get the point. Point is that most of the gains, the really big speckled gains occur only once. Price hits a new all time high again. So what happens in the meantime as you get this accumulation phase and awareness phase, institutional phase, and it's only the retail phase right at the end where most of the that says called dumb money in the retail money. And no offense to anybody listening, many of you probably got in at some point right here, the last cycle. Okay? That's when it gets really heated. But where in this early, early accumulation phase, not even the really the awareness feed at this point, smart money accumulation. This is where we want to be and this is why it doesn't matter that price is up a thousand or 2000 off the lows and it doesn't matter if you buy right now, if it drops another thousand or two you're in the accumulation phase at some point. What we're going to see, I'm going to draw this backwards some point if we expect the next four years cycle low to go 150 weeks across, okay? Again, no absolutes here we using just guides, but if we take that and then we draw backwards a date and we want to go, let's just say nine months back, okay, so we want to go 36 weeks. This here is the point where it exceeds the prior highs. So I'm going to draw from a $20,000 level to here.

This is the point where, and again this is all guides, I can't stress it enough where bitcoin probably exceeds the $20,000 level and begins to go parabolic. And then from there does a 10 x 15 x whatever the number is and nobody knows, but this is the point 36 weeks from the top or around nine months, give or take and that it begins to exceed. So then if we know that well if we believe that's roughly how it work and we can start to kind of draw this up, right? So I first test
back down

now a test, another test and then go, okay that here, and again this is not very neat, but it's not supposed to be. You can look at the prior move here and the one before that. You get these 60 day cycles of rally up above the bollinger bands back down, up above the barge bends and back down for example. It's going to be something similar to that. Probably get a nice shake out a couple of shakeouts along the way as well. So we see most of 2019 below and accumulating in under the $6,000 range. At some point, let's just say in October we get one spike maybe above. Okay. Gets everybody excited to come back down as nine til maybe towards December that we start to really put price above the six and, and then behind us. Okay. Um, maybe a few retests lower and then early 2020 so it's this a year from here, we begin to get full awareness now and now we have price over 7,000, uh, getting up towards 8,000.

It's now more than doubled if not tripled. Claude getting closer, tripled off the December lows. People starting to come back in that were probably invest at some point in the last cycle. And now this is more of an awareness phase, much more institutional monies down that come in. Okay. Probably an ETF is approved by this point, maybe a year out or so. So we're starting to get a lot of interest in our building and this, but still retail does not believe. Now retail won't believe until we break 20,000 and CNBC comes on and talks about, you know, all time highs and that all that type of thing. It's all repeatable. Every cycle is the same. Okay. Um, but this then becomes a situation in 2020 we start to fill the gap between that six $7,000 range and the $20,000 all time high of 2017 and that comes and complete all of 2020 and they're into some of the 2021 where 2021 is the third year and third year is typically the biggest year in a bull market, at least a secular bull market.

And that's when the gains begin to get ridiculous. So then what happens from that point is really anybody's guess. My guess is that we have yet another similar move if not a bigger move in terms of percentage wise than the last two. I believe that the 2021 Paul market top is going to be a massive blow off top like you've never seen before. And I also believe, and this is not for this video, that that's going to mark the top of what is a 16 year cycle. We see 1617 year cycles in the equity markets and gold and many other markets. And I believe that this will mark right here, the top of a 16 year cycle. So four of these four year cycles. This, sorry about that. This is the third. Then there'll be another fourth. The fourth one I believe will be a massive four year bear market.

But that's, that's for a later time. That's for 2000 and and sort of a, you know, 21 to worry about. But I believe there'll be a four year bear market going into the sort of mid 2000 and twenties decade. Um, but that's to come right here is where we get this massive blow off top. And from here, 10 x from the 20,000 top, and we've done 10 x before from the breakout point 10 x to me is not much k and 10 x in Bitcoin is $200,000 and $200,000 is only, and this is rough numbers, I believe around about three, five or $4 trillion in market cap, which obviously is a phenomenal amount, right? But now we're talking sort of 13 years, 14 years into adoption and we're talking a much different game right here. Uh, possibly and hopefully a massive light lightening a technology adoption.

So we're talking about different environment, we're talking about ETFs are talking about a institution we're talking about. 401Ks involves a worldwide phenomenon at this point. So we're looking here and I'm looking at least at the blow off top phase. Okay. And then I believe 200 is the target. Um, I would probably be out of a lot of my positions by that point, but this could overshoot, you know, and that's obviously too much. But this could overshoot, shoot, I think possibly even as high as the $300,000 level is as possible and not out of the, uh, at a question for what we're seeing right here. Then we can look at, of course, just like we have seen now I move back down. Now where does that move? Take us the low, if we look at prior bear markets, around about 85% of the move is retraced.

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Okay. But we always stay above the, the top from the prior four year cycle. So not that it's important right now, but um, this move, if he got to 250085% retracement brings bitcoin back to around about 36,000. So around about 36,000 in October of 2022, uh, would be your four year cycle low. It's probably a, actually I think November, but in this timeframe is the next four years cycle au Jus and around about the 35, let's say, to $50,000 range. So what's going to be important is that we are invested, that we have our eye. On the prize that we are accumulating. We are taking profit at some points, some minor prophet, but then that we are fully invested and also understanding of the next four year cycle and that we more importantly during this last phase here, uh, scaling out and not scaling in or not buying in.

And we're certainly taking a huge amount of the profits up towards the top and only have a small amount. You want to always have some bitcoin of course, uh, for the longterm forever. But we want to be out for most of this was, we don't want to ride like many of you did. You don't want to write another four year cycle low down 85%. You don't want to be holding bitcoin from this level today at 4,000 to 200,000 and back to 30,000 okay? That's going to be the goal us over the next four years or the next three and a half years is to take advantage of this opportunity. Now, does it have to work out this way? It doesn't. Right? We could be looking at a double top with 20,000 and then the next four year cycle low coming back down to 3000 that's a possibility and I want you to think that the cycle has to play out in this way. I'm only telling you how I believe it's in a play out based on a longer timeframe, 16 year asset cycle and the fact that I believe we're still firmly in a secular bull market for bitcoin and under that scenario, this is what I believe is the most likely outcome to play out and that's why we still have to be aware of the alternative possibilities. We have to be aware that we could indeed be looking at sort of eight years of sideways chop, right where it gets to 20,000 it kind of does something like this.

It's possible and then the next eight years and you get the point right, it's more of a sideways chop that is a possibility, which is why I keep saying when you invest today, you're getting in near the bottom of a four year cycle and that you're investing with money that you can afford. Not necessarily to lose. Nobody can afford to lose anything and nobody wants to lose anything. But you're not betting everything on this, right? You're not going to cause catastrophic harm to you and your family. But putting in way too much at this point because there's no point, there's no need. If we going for a 30 x move from this point or a hundred ex move from this point, you don't need to be more than let's just say 10% of your, uh, you know, view of your wealth allocated to this and that's even high.

You just don't need to. Okay. Because we're looking at such massive gains. Not only that, if you're putting in too much capital at this point, if you're, if you're looking at the potential here and thinking about owning private islands in a suite of fast cars, what's going to happen is you're not going to be able to ride the big capitulation to the big shakeouts that the market's going to give. And there will be shakeouts and I'm talking about 20 or 30% corrections in bitcoin over this period at some point if not one, at least one. But if not wanting to be at least maybe two or three. And if you are taking it in the mindset that I'm going to put everything in right here, then you're not going to be able to hold those gains. You're going to basically give it back, you're going to sell out at some point and then you're going to s then you're going to be in an undesirable position.

You're not going to have know, you're not gonna be focused on the plan and the four year cycle and you won't have the full position that you need. Okay. So that is my summary. That is my update since the last four year cycle video. This is overall to me, very encouraging. This is great news. Um, but keep your eye on the prize. Keep your eye on sort of the possibilities here for shakeouts. But again, like I've been seeing in all my videos the last two months or three months, you want to be from a longterm holders perspective, fully allocated, get you allocation now and be happy with allocation. Be happy even if the market turns lower at this point, be happy that we are in early during the accumulation phase of bitcoin. Thank you guys. Hit the like button. If you liked this video, please subscribe. Please share this video on social media or anywhere you like. Get the message out and I look forward to coming out with some more videos on longterm holding and investing or the best to you wishing you. I'm wishing you all the best. Thank you.

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