Bitcoin HODL 'er strategy to reach two hundred thousand dollars per one BTC
When and how Bitcoin may cost more than 58 thousand dollars and can reach even 400 thousand dollars per one BTC. Is it possible to HODL Bitcoin and change your life?
And here's the weekly, right, is there's a chance now that bitcoin goes higher and does not necessarily even come back into this area. It's not what I expect at the moment. But there's a chance and if you don't have that allocation and something like that plays out, you're not going to be able to get in. And if you do get in and it's not going to be with a rider location, you're going to be pretty upset that it's already doubled or more in price. And I telling you, you're not going to be able to get on board with a show. Do you like this? So if, if, if bitcoin does something like this and gets to see 7,500 but then retraces back down, you know, to know more than sort of 6,000 and then sort of spends a lot of the time and the bottom there before going higher, you're going to find it very hard to get any type of allocation based on this because you're looking and your eyes focused on this 3000 even 2000 area on 4,000 for one more time.
I mean it comes a point where there just isn't another one more time down right now. Okay, so welcome back. Here's a weekly chart. Currently you, you recall this type of allocate or view that I had back sort of enable that we chop around, maybe even get this big, big final shakeout before kind of coming higher that now you can kind of throw out the window in my opinion. I believe now that we have pierced this area and this area provided very little to no support or sorry, resistance at all that we're now going to start to possibly see a base built well above this breakdown point. I don't think we even get, and this is a bit stam charts, so it's showing a wick lower here today that is not present on most exchanges. Um, but we have top for the 60 day cycle here.
We are coming down to a low but a, I would be very careful here trying to get cute on timing. I know some of you are like, okay, finally maybe the market will let me back in today. Now trading at 7,100 as I record this down from 8,400. But let me warn you the same reasons why you missed the opportunity back here. The 5,100 area still play and is still valid today. The market right now is giving you an opportunity to get something lower than the 8,400 that it peaked at. But if you look at this cluster right here where it broke down, um, there is a significant kind of drop here and then a significant rally at the same time. I don't think we sort of get too much below if anything below this drop right now. So we are basically a, that's at 63 80.
We kind of wick down there many exchanges towards 64 and 6,600. I think we probably get a test of that in the coming days or week. But, uh, you're playing with kind of playing with fire here. You're looking to save 500 to a thousand dollars again, and the, um, the possibility is that you don't get that price and that bitcoin moves higher and you're faced with the same dilemma. So, uh, all I can say to everybody right now, and this is going to get repetitive, but it seems like many of you are still waiting, uh, looking for a better price or I can say is do not wait too long. And if you get a price anywhere near 6,400, I suggest you jump all over that, then it's a $2,000 drop from the highest just this week and last week. And that to me in a massive move and massive uptrend is basically a gift back to a daily chart here in the, in a bull market, the, uh, the dips can, can be a steepest 30 and 35%.
So even if you draw down from the 8,400 area and you move here, so I look 20% right here, is that the 6,600 area, and then you can kind of get a 30% is all the way down here at 5,800. We're not too far away from that point. And if you thinking that you're going to get more, more than the 30% dip, then you're again, you're playing with uh, playing with pennies here to potentially miss out on thousands and thousands of dollars. Don't do it. I think we're now in the position where you want to be looking to fill up if you have not and get that full huddle allocation that I talked about in the prior videos so you are now ready and set to go for, they would move. That's coming ahead guys. It's really important to understand that we've seen three massive parabolic moves of a hundred x in the first 10 years of Bitcoin and clearly with the four year cycle in December, we are in the early stages of what I believe is a fourth parabolic move that should from the 3,200 low areas in December move by close to another 100 x.
We're talking about a massive opportunity that most people in the history in the history of kind of investing and trading, you just never see one of these opportunities present themselves, let alone three that I've passed and most likely have a fourth that is on our doorstep. And it kind of gets tiring to hear people ask me over and over again, should I buy now? Should I wait for a pullback? Should I buy I didn't get enough? Do you think it's going to go to 4,200? Do you think it's another 5,000? I'm kinda tired of answering the same question. Um, people have no allocation here to what looks like is going to be another massive move and they want to get cute on at 1000 or $2,000 move in Bitcoin when, uh, when really they're risking another move like this. You have to understand one very important thing.
Listen to me clearly here. This is a nascent technology. It is revolutionary technology, especially when it comes to the application of Crypto blockchain as, as it come, as it relates to money itself. It's a, uh, a new, uh, spin on money that it's only only just beginning to gain some traction, but we are extremely early in this adoption period. And the, the, the benefit that you have being the use case that bitcoin's use case is mostly money at this point is that it gets priced. There was a market that were exchanges for um, discovery, price discovery on Bitcoin and we have been lucky to be involved in this technology early and see the price appreciation over time. Um, the, all of the other reason why we are very special here is that um, very few people know about it just at this point. At this point the technology is evolving a rabbit place and you essentially, um, have access to an Oli technology that in the past has only been available to very select few people.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
Part of um, you know, sort of a big club or a big network of people in the know with access to vast sums of capital and essentially only available to accredited investors, you know, opportunities available to accredited investors here. Anybody anywhere in the world, whether you're in a village in Kenya or your struggling with hyper inflation in Venezuela or if you're here in the west in the US, everybody has the same opportunity to have a no excuses at this point to be a part of this opportunity. That's, that's if ahead of you and it gets tiring to think that um, you know, you're trying to time turn the bottom here or looking for another lower low or looking for $1,000 lows and nonsense like that. Um, yes, the market can shake out people. It can drop 30 and 40%. We know that already. We've seen that many times before.
It doesn't mean you don't get your allocation at this point. Okay, so this is the last warning. Last time I'm going to say this. Please don't ask me again, I'm not going to comment on this again. I would these videos going forward, assume that you have your huddle allocation for the four year cycle. If you want to understand my views on what the right allocation is, watch the last video. I cover the 10% sort of guideline on how much, well for how much you should allocate to this. I have posted I 25 BTC, $100,000 model portfolio that if you are, if you want to, you can mimic or follow. It's a public address that shows 25 BTC and I'm going to essentially use that to um, highlight how I'm approaching the coming four year cycle and how I expect to get out with a lot of my positions going forward.
It's also going to illustrate that I'm not going to be shaken out by this market. I'm not going to allow dips and you know, significant moves here to throw me off my position, uh, because I have a plan for the next four year cycle. I'm going to show you something here. It's very important. So you think this hundred percent move was something you're not going to see again. You're wrong. You're going to see hundred percent moves and 30 and 40% drops on a very consistent basis going forward. And if you're not prepared for those, if you think that you can take profit on each of these moves and then sell on the bottom and then buy again and so forth. So I sell the top and and buying the bottom again and then sell them the top all the way up and down. Then you think you're a trader and I can guarantee you that unless you're a qualified or skilled or you have success in trading, you're not going to beat the huddle approach of the next four year cycle.
I'm showing on the screen here, the 153 week uptrend in the bull market from 2015 to December, December, 2017 and I'm only illustrating here in blue and red periods of 30% or more moves either up or down blues representing up red, representing down price changes only over a four week or less periods. I think about that in one month periods I'm showing you moves of greater than 30% on the upside on the downside, and there are, believe it or not, 25 and it's actually probably more of them in that I didn't spend enough time and measuring every single sort of four week block, but there are at least 25 situations where bitcoin moved at least by 30% and if you feel that you're going to be able to time something similar to this going forward, what's going to end up happening is you're going to get something like this situation right here, zoom in here, 36% decline right here.
If you're going to be looking for a low, you're gonna miss it. It's going to rally sharply. You're going to think it's going to come back down and then you're going to miss something like this. 215% move and I can guarantee you will never get back in this move here. Okay? Went from $920 up to $3,000 you probably will not get back in at that point. If you do, you're going to get in with a small position. So again, just like we experienced of the last eight weeks where it went from, you know, from from 42002880400 pretty much a 100% move. Most of you a lot of, even though you said, yeah, I'm in this for the huddle, I'm in this for the four year cycle you already sold, you sold them the very first one of these 30 plus percent moves and if it keeps going from today, if the 6,400 or seven 6,600 area where it's at right now, if that's the low and it goes up to 9,000 tomorrow or next week, you may not get a position again for the next three year move.
Okay? So it's very important that if you're going to go on this journey, if you're going to be a true [inaudible] as they say, then you need to be able to ignore all this volatility that's going to be coming up. And the only time that you're going to get cute on any of these moves is if you want to add to your position. So if you want to add some more, so let's just say your financial situation has changed a little bit. You have come across a little more money, a little more capital, or you've yeah, you've worked over time, whatever the case is and you want to increase your allocation somewhat. Then maybe what you're going to be doing is looking for greater than 30% moves to add. So you're going to buy the dip in an uptrend. Buying the dip in an uptrend is a beautiful strategy and works really well.
Okay. But you don't want to be looking at a time that tops in a bull market. Timing tops is very difficult to do most of the time. Um, it's just such a bullish move that you feel it can't go any higher than it does. Just as, again, classic example as we just experienced. Many of you thought 60 to hundred like myself, 6,400 would be a top for the short term, but I didn't take anything off the table. I didn't want to risk losing my position and that's going to come and that that incentive or that um, you know, that um, uh, that move higher is going to be coming again and again and again. And as you can see from these pollute can't these blue bars here, 90%, 40%, 50%, 75%, um, you know, 5,200 170150200. Those are huge for week moves. Where if you have, and let's just use my model portfolio as an example.
You know right now it's valued at a $180,000. If we get a bar or fall for candle bar of even just a hundred percent, right? That's a 180% and $108,000 move in that portfolio. So from 180 to $360,000, that's significant. Now I'm expecting that at some point I'm positioned for that. That's the whole goal of this four year huddle. But if you're only focused on the nominal price of your bitcoin holding, then you're going to lose sight of the goal and the prize at the end of this journey. And you're going to suffer from sort of short term greed and you're not going to be able to sustain multiple moves like this again. Example, right here at 25 such moves of the, the three year rally. You need to be positioned and you need to be thoughtful of the volatility that's going to be coming and you need to be able to stop looking at the price on a frequent and daily basis.
You need to stop, uh, waking up first thing in the morning when the alarm clock rings and going straight to your bitcoin price chart to see what bitcoin did over the last six hours and eight hours of sleep. You need to stop thinking and dreaming big coin. Uh, I'll probably see you going to be an exciting journey, but you need to get out of that mindset because if price and uh, you know, agreed. Um, you know, dominate your thinking, you're not going to be able to take advantage of such a large move to come. All right, let's go into the final stage of this video and provide a little more hope humans off so you can remember that this is about the prize and not about the short term. You have made some mistakes potentially here. If you haven't and you bought and you're fully allocated, congratulations, you execute the first portion of this beautifully. And like I just mentioned, there are going to be many, many tests coming up. Um, and if you're prepared for them and you're, you know, you're, you're ready for them, you'll be just fine if you did not get your allocation and you still kind of stubborn about it. Uh, there's not much more can say. I've given you the evidence. I've given you my reasoning, um, how you choose to execute from going forward. It's really up to you.
But I just want to show you that if we're here at 7,100 and this blue line here represents the previous all time highs. And the goal for this move is up here, right at the $250,000 area than this is zoom back in here. You're talking about this little area right here. That's what you're basically, you're playing around with and you're risking this entire move up. So just put that in perspective for a second. It's very important. And um, you know, my goal still here is that over the next 150 bars, which is a hundred weeks, 150 weeks or three years roughly, it may be shorter than that. We don't know when the top comes in any four year cycle, but the last two were similar length. Let's just even assume for argument's sake that you know, it comes, excuse me, come somewhere around here for example, which is only 125 we are already 25 bars in 25 hours into that period where the market could top, we could be looking at something shopper like this.
Okay. So we could be looking at a market we just don't know. And, and, and all these lines that just guides, uh, I like to focus on time and I'm looking at prior, you know, hundreds moves or 20 x moves from previous breakout points as just a guide. But you know, we could be, could be getting up to all time highs much sooner by December even it's not out of, out of the possibility. Again, I don't expect it, don't believe it, but we need to be prepared for any such moves on. We could be looking at something like that. We could be, you know, it doesn't, we don't know how it unfolds. All we know is that our goal is this over the next 100 to 150 weeks from this point going forward at some point, most likely in 2021 where we peak and what is trying to get that right position here to ride that out.
Let me just finish right now with another view of the market here from an um, market cap standpoint. So market cap to me is more important than the nominal price because I'm sure many people focus on that big nominal price of thousands of dollars per bitcoin. But you know, it's so arbitrary. Bitcoin is divisible by eight decimal places or Satoshi's at the lowest form. Um, it's doesn't matter which, which unit you use as a, for accounting purposes, it's irrelevant. Um, you know, don't get hung up on the dollar amount. And when people think 10, 20, 30, $50,000 in those, in those terms, they get sidetracked and think, well, it's just too much. It can't go that high possibly. But really what's important to focus is on is on the market cap. So how much is all the bitcoin worth that's out there for sold at any one given time.
And right now it's only $128 billion. And you know, I've grown up in New York here in the finance industry, I can tell you $128 billion. Yeah, it's significant to some extent been in, in the grand scheme of things in where we expect bitcoin to go from an adoption standpoint. And how important I believe this technology will become $128 billion. It's absolutely nothing when it comes to, um, you know, to compare to, to, to its potential. Even the previous peak here at 330 billion is nothing. Apple Corporation, for example, has more cash on hand than the entire bitcoin network. They could use that cash to buy up. Obviously they couldn't buy it up cause the price we get forced higher. But in general, they're cash hoard is worth more than the bitcoin is in total. I mean, just compare bitcoin's market cap to, for example, the US government's treasury issuance or bond issuance.
This is the debt that they issue every single month. Look at the calendar coming up here for bond and notes. They're going to be issued by the government. This is just the US government, not the, uh, you know that the, again, not, it's certainly not the, uh, the Japan central bank or the European Central Bank or any other, um, you know, government or state government. This is the issuance. Yeah. Look, look at these notes that we sold. Here we go. A treasury offering. Uh, April 18th, 32 billion, seven year notes, May 1st couple of weeks ago, 38 billion in three notes, May 1st 27 billion in 10 year notes May 1st 19 billion in 30 year bonds. What's my point? You ask while the US government is issued essentially a $100 billion in debt justice last few weeks. Here we are talking about um, a revolutionary technology of for money. Uh, that is in, you know, the early stages only beam valued at a $128 billion.
Even gold if, if, if we keep talking about Bitcoin as a store of value and we talk about gold, I know this is a very overplayed theme so I know it's not new for many of you, but I want to illustrate this on the chart. Gold's market caps all the value of gold above ground in volts for example. And then storage for store of value purposes cause that's face at the golds true function as a store of value. Um, a store of value that goes dates back thousands of years that can command a value. If you look at market cap here, so we're at 128 billion, 300 billion was recent. I'm going to sort of zoom out and go up here. So right, there's the $8 trillion level where, um, where gold is valued at. And here we are and this is a log scale. So this is 128 billion only.
Okay? So here's your $1 trillion level right here. I'm going to just draw one in one shoe than right here at around about the 55 $58,000 level of bitcoin and he is in a log scale up to $8 trillion. Now I'm not saying that Matt has goals valuation in the next four year cycle, but this is the type of targets that we're looking at in the next coming four years cycle. Somewhere between this $1 trillion valuation, which I think is the absolute worst case scenario for the four year cycle at around about 56,000 or so, up to possibly the $4 trillion level around about $200,000 for this cycle. Then leaving the, leaving the possibility of matching gold market cap in the following for you cycled to come after that some point in the middle of the next decade or so. So this is, you know, this is just to give you an illustrate from a market standpoint what the possibility is, um, and not to lose sight again of that prize and the reason for allocating and the reason for huddling, um, and what the potential is.