Bitcoin has retraced more than 40 percent, and it can go lower, but it is the best time to buy it if you have missed the chance to buy Bitcoin on a low 3k.
I've tried to group many of the questions from Twitter and YouTube together into like-mind the topics. I'm going to try and cover as much of that as possible for you today here in this video. I know there's a lot going on, a lot of significant price action on the downside of late and I'm going to cover a lot of that here today as well. Before I do that though, let me quickly go over to some housekeeping items, which I think is essential, and I'll try and get through this fairly quickly. Just the typical standard disclaimer that I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not a registered advisor, and none of this is, you know, financial advice to you.
I am outlining essentially what I'm doing, how I'm approaching this asset class, how I'm investing in this asset class, what I see, and mostly what I'm doing. If that provides value to you, then that's great. If it doesn't, if he disagrees with your own personal strategy, then so be it. Maybe it's another idea and perhaps some more help for you. But in general, I'm just here to help as much as possible. Um, and I also, as you know, I don't have a vast amount of personal exposure to Bitcoin specifically. Uh, I have maybe a significant enough position, but in terms of overall wealth, I'm risking no more than 5%. Um, just on Bitcoin alone, I'm trading Bitcoin as well significantly. So if Bitcoin were, uh, for whatever reason, virtually disappear, um, yes, it would hurt, but it would not cause significant financial harm. And I think that's an essential aspect.
I think this also allows me to remain calm and patient with his market. During 40% declines and a hundred percent rallies because I don't have the type of exposure that scares the hell out of me. For anybody that has that type of exposure, you already have experienced how difficult it is. With such a, you know, position as the market goes up and down. And, uh, you know, some significant manner and I'll cover a lot more of that in a portfolio section later on in this video. Let me get back to some more the disclaimers here. Um, you know, this video covers topics and questions that you've had, uh, and provided to me and I have an agenda posted below in the comment section. I've also tried to put in the minute and the point in the video where the topic is discussed in the address.
So hopefully that will help you out. Also, another point here, I'm not a YouTuber. I don't intend to become a YouTube. I don't earn any significant income, from YouTube here. All revenue that I'm YouTube will give me, which is not much. It's around about three or $400 a month. It looks like I will donate to followers and subscribers of this channel through a post in the community section each month trying to give away maybe, um, you know, three up to $500. It is thanking you for liking this video. Hopefully of course if you do like it and also as it is free content, I would ask that you um, subscribe to this channel but also share the link to the video either on Twitter or Facebook or any other social media channel that you frequent and also share it with friends and family that would be appreciated.
And I would thank you for doing that. Lastly, there are many scammers out there impersonating either myself on Twitter or via email specifically, and some of these do look pretty convincing at first glance. So let me make it very clear as I always do. I will never ever solicit you on email, um, or any other place for any other reason. Uh, I do have a couple of paid sites as you know, but they are their own websites. Okay. Let's start with the first topic here, which is by far the leading question that I had around the topic of the recent decline. Whether or not that's now the end of the bull market. Did we ever get into a bull market? Uh, we give them back into a bear market. Do we see new lows? Those types of questions probably made up around 40% of the total.
And that leads me to believe. So let's talk about this one. This is the elephant in the room leads me to believe that many of you are still either too leveraged, uh, will have a position that you cannot handle and will not be able to handle even if you managed to get through this period of consolidation and into, um, higher prices in the future. It also tells me that you have not learned the number one, um, number one strategy, I guess at looking at longterm investing and huddling in that you should not be focused on short term price movements, even price movements of 40% or more in nature. We had a market that was up three to 400% more recently and the same people that I worry today work, you know, sort of, you know, over the moon and already counting their gains, counting how much they would own when Bitcoin hits 50 a hundred, 150,000.
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I do not fully appreciate that. Um, you know, markets do go up and they go down and at the same time, one thing you must understand is if we're looking at investing in an asset class that we hope is going to go up by 10 or 20 or even 50 X, which those types of gains are essentially unheard of in the history. You know, our of investing, if we're looking at the, at those types of gains or for example, as we saw from the December lows to kind of the June highs where we saw a 300 plus percent rise in the price of Bitcoin, such tremendous potential comes with tremendous volatility and that means tremendous upside gains with absolutely significant retracements in price. They go hand in hand. You cannot have one without the other. And if you're in this looking at the gains, counting how much a, you know, how much you have on paper, uh, when Bitcoin goes up 300%, and then you start to look at how much you're going to have when Bitcoin gets a 20 and 50 and a hundred and so on, you have also to be prepared to weather the storm when Bitcoin drops by 30, 40% or more.
Um, that's just the nature of the investment that we're doing. And if you're looking at this as a one way street to the top, then sadly you're going to fall victim to this market, and you're going to end up probably selling a lot of your Bitcoin on significant dips through to panic because your exposure is too high. And then when the market turns and rallies by 20 or 30 or even 50% rapidly, you're going to get the FOMO bug essentially. You're going to know that the market is moving high, you're going to begin to chase, and you're going to end up buying back Bitcoin and buying fewer Bitcoin with the amount of capital that you have. Pricing yourself higher from an average standpoint. And that's how people lose in a bull market. They end up averaging themselves higher thinking that this smarter than the market, or like I said before, overleveraged the market to the point where they cannot think clearly.
They're looking at the daily chart, they're looking at the four hour chart and they're not looking at the weekly chart or even the monthly chart and then not taking that step back and saying to themselves, hang on, what time frame am I really investing on? Am I looking at this from a four year cycle standpoint or am I looking at this from a daily standpoint? Am I looking at, um, the news from a day to day basis? Am I my getting caught up in all the fear or the negative news and media that's out there allowing you to be influenced by short term movements in price? I'll give you a perfect example of that. I've had so many direct messages and emails or tweets from people who are concerned, right? And, and it goes, and that's evident by the fact that so many of the questions are about what's going on here.
Well, I'll tell you what's going on. Bitcoin's down 40% it's at or close to $10,000 it's around 9,000 or so dollars. If you, if I told you nine months ago that Bitcoin by October would be 9,000 or 10,000 let alone the fact that got to 14 but let's just ignore that. If I told you it was at 9,000 by October, what would your reaction be? And I can tell you when Bitcoin was at 3,200 $3,500 at the start of the year, you would be absolutely ecstatic with a Bitcoin at $9,000 by this time of the year. But yet most of you kind of choose to look at this from a short term lens from a half, you know, glass half full type of as perspective. And look at this only from the fact that I touched 14,000 recently and is down 40% but in reality a Bitcoin has more than doubled this year.
It is the only asset class to be up over 100% in fact, there's no asset class that ever goes up 100% essentially in a year and Bitcoin has done that and yet most of you have either traded this in and out where you're probably a down through the year. There are people who supposedly a huddling and are actually down on a dollar equivalent standpoint because they think again, that they can time the market even from a huddle or longterm investing standpoint or again, they are far too leveraged thinking that if they put everything in the, visualize this a little better for you. If you look at this chart here, the cycle short term cycle low here on June 9th when price was at 7,500 okay? After consolidation, it took or spent just 17 trading days to this peak here on June 26 to a high of 13 $880 so from seven, five to 13 eight let's take a look at what type of game we're talking about here.
So we're looking at the bottom here, all the way up to the top. It rallied 85% in 17 training days in 17 trading days alone, it would up 80% it has spent since that time, a couple of months here consolidating and then crushed but still remains above the June highs, the June, Lowe's I should say, so 17 days and everybody's in a panic when all we've done with Bitcoin here has a rate we've already done it ever raised 17 days of gains, just 17 days. So if you are down overall because of this, it is because you are reacting not down here at the early stages. Okay? You are reacting here with everybody else. Everybody on retail just like everybody did in 2017 here, okay? When everybody was making money except for you and your thought, well why aren't time making money or wanting to have more of a position and buying too late in the cycle?
And I'm talking about a short term cycle there and then getting too much of a position thinking that it'd be at 20 or 30,000 overnight and then when it comes back down, you can't handle that size and handle that position. But look again, focus on the longer term and look at the weekly here. Okay, here's the massive increase we had. We've just retraced not even a third of that move back. Okay. Um, many of you have asked if I'm concerned with the fact that Bitcoin has dropped 40% from the top or that the 200 day moving average was lost or there's some type of Elliott wave structure that looks really bearish. Look at the end. There are no absolutes, right? There is no, nobody has a crystal ball in this market. Nobody knows where prices eventually are going to go. Is there a chance that Bitcoin has topped for the next couple of years or foreseeable future?
Yeah, there is always that possibility and that speaks to the leverage I talked about earlier. The type of exposure that you have and the fact that there is no such thing as a risk, the less asset, there is no such thing as an asset that we, uh, hoping can go up 20 X that provides no risk. It's just impossible when you're falling herself in, in. If you think that hitting a hundred thousand or plus is a slam dunk shore thing. If it was, then I would have way, way, way more exposure to this asset class, um, than just what I have. Right? There's just no such thing in the, in anything, uh, investing specially one or something that has this type of potential. That's a fact. Now, even though it may not look like there a clear and danger, clear risks and dangers to Bitcoin, there are, and I don't want to speculate on what they may be, they're out there.
Um, the fact is that we don't know where prices going, but that being said, okay, we will, I at least have a narrative and a thesis that I believe in and I'm investing towards that thesis because if I don't stick to that plan and don't back it up, then there's no way of me ever achieving it and realizing that goal. Um, in terms of price action from a short term standpoint, again, when market was going up week after week by 20 30%, I didn't question it. I said to everybody, expect surprises in Bitcoin. This is still early on in the, in the entire lifecycle of Bitcoin. It's only in a four year cycle. The market can surprise Bitcoin's market cap is still absolutely tiny compared to other asset classes and price discovery is very fluid, volatility is very high and we can get such moves. So again, back to the same theme, 40% decline after a 300% move is very normal to me.
In fact, in the last video I shared, it was a public video that I had on my Bitcoin live site. I showed exactly how I thought Bitcoin was actually preparing for a move to 8,500. So I'm about to show that right now. Here's a replay of that video, Elisa clip of that video, some, some type of shakeout eventually, um, to end this cycle around the mid September timeframe that comes on pretty fast. Uh, action that, uh, drops rapidly and then reverses very sharply. That to me would be a perfect ending to the 60 day cycle. Also, uh, completing the consolidation period from the, the rally intermediate Ray that started back in December, that really took off in February and went up by almost 300%. We needed an expected to see at least a one and a half cycle consolidation of that rally. And that's exactly what we're seeing right now.
So for that reason, uh, I know a lot of people talking about thinking or hoping that we'd get another move up to 14,000 and above. I don't see how that's possible for a lease at least no of three weeks, but maybe even two and a half months. And I'll get into that in a second. Um, but I think we need to either one, see the completion of the 60 days cycle right here. So something where, um, we, you know, we kind of come down here, we test all this support that has been, uh, keeping Bitcoin, uh, sort of propped up at this, uh, 97, 9,800 level and even in $10,000 level more recently. Uh, maybe hit that one more time, maybe even two more times, but I think, and maybe even get some surprise that on many rallies, but I think in general we're going to come down and test these July lows at some point and then looking for that capitulation down towards the $8,000 range.
I would be surprised if we get below a thousand or print. So seeing a seven print would be, um, a little surprising to me and then coming reversing pretty sharply back up to this 9,000 level, maybe bouncing off it, maybe hitting some resistance first, but coming back into this area fairly quickly after that happens. This is in combination with another three weeks of sideways action that frustrates the new balls that came in on the intermediate trend. Then coupled with a breakdown in September is really kind of the best, best outcome that balls can have if you could hold on because it really does shake out a lot of the, uh, the weak hands in this, in this place. And also the over pools looking for, you know, sort of easy money so to speak. This is how I see it playing out.
And now back to today's action sitting at 8,200 as over this recording. Do I think the price declines had done? I don't know. I don't think so. To be honest with you. I'm looking at some cycles here, some short term cycles and I don't want to go with the short term cycles because that is something I do cover on a daily and weekly basis for a paid service and I, and I'm not here to promote that, but just want to say a couple of things. Um, we are not done I believe with the next cycle right here and I think we are setting up for one more decline. Uh, I like, I like the seven, five, seven, four, seven, six area. We almost hit that area, that range just recently. So I think we could be looking here at one more small decline, former cycle low, and then we can begin kind of building a base again, whether it should hire quickly and Rick kind of recovers this 10,000 range or if it really starts to build a base in a much slower fashion.
I don't really know. I just don't know what this point and more importantly it's not, it's not that important to us when we're looking at this weekly timeframe. What we're looking at here is the market rebuilding its base re accumulation to occur after a lot of distribution up here. Price obviously Rose very rapidly and that unlocked a lot of Bitcoin naturally, right? Not that there were a lot of trapped holders, but once you get, you know, a Forex move in any asset class, you're going to get natural sellers. You're going to get people, uh, either who bought up here or held all the way down or accumulated in the bottom here, cash out, take profit, why not? Okay, so we've had some distribution here in, and I think we're going to go back into a room re accumulation phase. I think this massive spike out of the four year cycle Lowe is now ending with this consolidation and then we're going to get a different type of character or different type of structure to this market.
We've been seeing shorter duration cycles here around 40 day cycles as opposed to 55 and 60 day cycles that we saw during the bull market. And I think we're going to go back to more of a 50 to 60 day duration cycles and more of a foundation, um, in how Bitcoin develops up to the $20,000 range before breaking out at some point in 2020 that's what I'm thinking and predicting it's going to happen from this point forward and in if you recall or if you have watched some of my original four year cycle videos, of course I didn't predict or expect this massive move higher. In fact, I thought the 6,500 area wouldn't get breached until probably around the August or September timeframe and that we may be up to this $809,000 level by around about this timeframe. So the only thing that's really changed is a lot of the structure of the market.
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And I think the way this market moved higher, it took a lot of people by surprise. And if you look at the prior bull market, sorry, in start of the bull markets or here's the end of the bear market here in 14 into 15, you get this base building area and then you get, you know, the accumulation early and then you start to see price. Um, you know, in the awareness phase we really take off and something similar kind of happened here as well. Uh, in 2012 and 2013. So I think a lot of people were just looking naturally here at kind of the structure where it came back up to six and then built a base and then finally come up. So this is taking a lot of people by surprise, but I think when you kind of look at it from a longer term perspective than it sort of looks more like that.
Okay. So it's over shot here and it's more of a reversion here, back to the mean. And now we're going to find some better price discovery as the market begins to move higher in a more sort of more calculative fashion. So one of the questions, which is very relevant, and I touched on recent just before in this video, but let me go into little more detail. Where am I wrong? Um, it's not a question of where am I wrong? I've already outlined the fact that nobody knows the future, that Bitcoin has risk, and that we need to be prepared for that. Now, I'm prepared for this from the standpoint that I have the type of exposure where if Bitcoin does go to zero, does fail, or something happens where Bitcoin essentially just fizzles out and it may be stays around the one thousand two thousand dollars range indefinitely, or whatever the case may be.
It's not going to financially destroy me. Okay? It's not gonna come close. It's gonna, it's gonna hurt. Um, of course. But, uh, that's how I'm dealing with the inevitability and what does that mean on the chart? So let's look at this here. I see this area where it collapsed back into the bam mock at Lowe's and the, and the move back up sudden up here I see that line there as kind of as the line in the sand. Anything below that point at this, you know, and at this point in the, in the bull market I would be, I would be concerned or beyond concerned and I would then begin to believe that this here, this rally here was a um, left trends at the beginning of a left translative four year cycle. I don't see a scenario where we are still part of a uh, bam market that began back in December.
This, this period here has elapsed that it has a is too long. I see this as a clear four year cycle lower, see all the evidence of that. And I see this being part of a new four year cycle, but four years, it's four years and the next big lo is four years out as far as I'm concerned. And if we are, if we have top tier and if we are going to go back below the 6,000 range and maybe even test those lows than I think the top three or the four year cycle is already in and that becomes an extremely left translated cycle with the top right here in June. And then we spend the three to four years between this $14,000 range and the bottom. I think that's unlikely. It's not something I expect, but it is a possibility. I don't really expect a situation where we have big coin trace of all the way back, make new loads as some people would want us to believe and then call that an end to this bear market that began back in December just wouldn't fit my uh, you know, my strategy and my cycles and um, it just wouldn't make any sense as far as I'm concerned.
Doesn't mean again, like I said, we can't, you know, foam, um, price action down in the four thousand five thousand dollar range and chop and chop and chop for a few years for that to happen. I would think we need some significant developments that are not priced in at all. Those significant developments must or probably include either some very heavy government intervention regulation, some type of massive clampdown on the coordinated effort of some type that we're not aware of towards Bitcoin or it have to involve some type of massive security breach that compromises the entire integrity of the system. And of course that's not something anybody expects right now. And that's another reason why we could see a prolonged, um, you know, sideways jump in the market. But that, that said, those two scenarios, government clamped down to such an extent or some type of security breach can not be something that this market is trying to tell us.
The 40% decline here, this price action cannot be signaling that type of development because we just don't have that type of evidence at hand. We was no way of us knowing that we had that type of evidence in hand, especially the security breach scenario. So for that reason, again, I don't think this has anything more than a significant shake out. And also we must not forget again that we had a massive three to 400% rise in a very short timeframe and it's kind of the pendulum swing way. You swung way too far to one end and we have to correct significantly on the other end. So, um, in terms of short term price action, gone back to this daily chart, I think we have maybe one more move lower and then I think this is the low for the remainder of the year and I think this becomes the low, uh, that will not be breached again for this four year cycle and also beyond.
Okay. So I think the lower we're going to put in, whether it's sort of next week or some point in October, I think is going to be the low for a low. You won't see again taken out in the history of Bitcoin. Some asked while we haven't seen a 40 plus percent decline of Ben in a bull market. So does that mean we're in a bad market? No. Again, same type of point we didn't see early on in a bull market. This type of impulse like move early on. So it's a kind of the cause and effect here. Uh, we, we didn't see such a move so we don't expect, um, we didn't expect a 40% decline, but I think it's natural. Also, one key point here, if we go to the 2015 he had a timeframe, I'm going to switch to it daily. In fact, I think it shows it a little better.
So we go to a right here. Okay. So let me zoom out a little bit. Let me make a point here. Here are the lows in January, 2015 four year cycle lows. We came out of that, came out nicely up to this point here in March and then built a base. I think a lot of people in this point here was too worried that the Mako was in a collapse. And then we had this rally here from 220 all the way to 318 significant enough for what was significant about this was that this action here made a new high. So we had a high in July and eclipsed the breakdown in January. So it was six to seven month highs. We took out the highest right here, previous peak and everybody was yelling new bull market. It started right here. And that's kind of similar to today.
Not so much from the price action but in terms of where it is in the cycle. And then what, what did we have from that point? Six months to seven months after the four year cycle, bear market low all the way down to $150 range. We had this massive 37%, almost 38% retracement, not too dissimilar to what we've seen today. Okay. So we had a 40, almost a 40% decline here over from July to August, over a little over a month period even though we didn't have that massive three to 400% rally that we see today. Okay. Um, so when people say, well, you know, we must be in a band marker cause we're down 40%. Well where are we in a bear market right here? And look what happened right after that point. We consolidate it for another month or so, and then from this area here in October at the $240 range, it doubled in price and within another month it went to $500 I'm not saying it's gonna double in price in a month from here, just clearly pointing out this corrective phase right here is not that different to where we are today and that we should again put everything in perspective and not let fear take over here when we look at these types of declines.
Another common question I received was where we stand in the four year cycle and of course that's what we here for. I know there's been a lot of fear around the 40% decline, but when you take a wider view, as I suggested earlier and look at Bitcoin from a monthly chart, to me it all looks very healthy and the three red candles, even though we haven't seen three red candles in a bull market, but we've only had two four year cycles to look at, so the history is not very deep or very long. So statistically we're going to be breaking records left front and center when it comes to comparing prior price action and extrapolating some type of meeting towards that. I think what's important to realize here is that we still are, I'm going to zoom in a little bit here. Even after a 40% decline, we are around the bat 166% off the lows in just the first year or the first nine or 10 months off the lows.
That to me is bullish. That to me is healthy, but also when you look at the moving average here, and I'm not a huge fan of moving averages for timing and for trade, um, identification, but from a trending standpoint, we now have the 10 month moving average trending higher and that's amazed. Definition of a bull market. 10 months is long enough for me to identify cyclical bull and bear markets, but also we have good separation still from the 10 month moving average. We're well above that. After three month decline, we still sit comfortably above a 10 month moving average. And I think again talking to the level of retracement decline, we created far too much separation too quickly when you consider the separation in price on the bare market side down with the 10 month moving average. And then in the six month span, flipping from an extreme separation to the downsides from the two almost and the extreme separation on the upside, it's only natural that we're seeing a good pullback in a retracement, very healthy as far as I'm concerned and very normal.
Not surprised in the least or at least worried by that type of pullback. And also structurally as well, it is different to the, um, the beginnings of the last four year cycle in 2015 and that shouldn't be surprising either. Not a lot of people are so fixated on sort of overlapping and an algos. Every cycle is different. Price action develops in different ways. But then also there are similarities here that I think can be pointed out and that could be just trivia, um, or could be important. But look, we had 14 buyers or 14 months to from the high of the cycle to the low and they've seen this in some of my earlier videos. And then we had something very similar to the lows, 12 bars to the lows, the bull market run here with similar to the prior bull market run. Um, and then since then, if you look at this here, it just took a long time to get going.
It took right here, it took nine months, exactly nine months to capture that 10 month moving average. We captured that 10 month moving average here in four months and it started exceeding it in five months. Okay. So now we're nine months in. At the same point here when this bull market really started to get going and decide to develop um, its base right here and start to sort of break out of its base and make it run towards or move at least over time towards the prior highs. We're in a similar position right now here at the, at the nine month, um, point above the 10 month moving average where I think this move here and the corrective aspect or component to that move are about to come to an end and then we're going to begin to see a more stable accumulation across cycles before testing that $20,000 range.
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The million dollar question everybody wants to know is when do we hit 20,000 when do we break above 20,000 and then you know, when do we go up to a top? I don't know. I think the answer, I don't know. Every cycle, like I said, it's different. We could be looking at a cycle top sooner, maybe by the mid point as opposed to three quarters of the way through. This cycle here piqued three years in our the four years. That's why you have 12 pounds down three years up, one year down. We can go to two years up but still see the same type of price increase over the cycle up towards that sort of, you know, 150 to $250,000 range. If prior cycles are a guide that can occur sooner. So in that case, if you take the load from here and you go 24 months out, then you're looking at December, 2020, you're looking at a little over a year to start to get to that peak.
Okay. Multiple ways you can get there. Um, but that's not that important from this point. What's important to hear is, um, where we stand in the cycle, what type of exposure that you have to the cycle. Do you have the right size and right position? If you pulled out recently, I suggest that you get the right allocation. Now that we're in this $8 range, now that we had a 40% pullback, this is not the time to be fearful. This is the time to be greedy. And I don't mean grieve from the sense that you should be loading up again and, and having, you know, finding yourself in a similar situation in the future. When we have retracements, I'm saying get the right allocation. That makes sense. That doesn't keep you up at night worrying about the price of Bitcoin. And, uh, you know, giving you a nightmares at three in the morning, worried that you've just lost 20% of your wealth because Bitcoin's down, you know, 20% of the night.
Um, that's not the position you want to be in, but just also be comfortable with the fact that we are still in the relatively early stages. We haven't closed the one the EMOC yet. We still three months away from the one year Mark of a four year cycle. Four years is a long time. We're not even a quarter of the way through and we've already seen price up 160%. So we've got to keep that in perspective and we're looking at this, um, if you got in early, you up 160%, you're doing phenomenally well and you should be in the well now positioned to take advantage of the next move higher as it begins. We just need to be patient with that move. Some have also asked about the having, um, that's coming up next year and the impact that's going to have on price. Look, the having for me is not as significant as, uh, people tend to believe from a shorter to intermediate timeframe.
The having is obviously extremely important to Bitcoin's supply and therefore its supply demand mechanics and therefore price obviously. But for me that's baked into the pie. It's baked into the price. People know it's coming. It's not like there's a Southern supply shock next year that people aren't aware of that haven't planned for. Um, it's just part of, you know, part of the process, part of the four year cycle to me, uh, we've seen evidence in other assets like light coin and people can say, well like coins, not Bitcoin yet. It's not, but it still has the same supply demand dynamics. We saw everybody scream and jump up and down that they need to get in before the light coin. Havin cause it's going to explode on what happened. It went down like 50%. Um, I'm not saying it's gonna happen to Bitcoin. I'm just saying the whole having narrative when you look at it has to me no significant evidence that it impacts price around the hobbing itself.
It doesn't impact price overall. Of course it impacts the supply of Bitcoin. But um, we've seen the Hoggins right in the middle of major four year cycle bull markets and to me they should again, part of the four year cycle and I don't think it's anything that you want to be timing. I don't think it's anything you want to be front running or anything attending that makes a difference. What makes a difference is getting a position early in a four year cycle and selling late in the four year cycle. Just like here, get in early, hold on, don't be adding. I'm at the point where it's, you know, near prior highs. So don't be adding in new all time highs. Nobody should be adding any Bitcoin in my opinion about the $20,000 range. Hopefully not about the $10,000 range where you have a gift right here at the $8,300 level.
If you didn't get in with many of us at the three thousand eight hundred four thousand five thousand six thousand dollar range, 8,300 when we are looking at a potential, a 100,000 plus is still a gift and still more than a 10 X opportunity that you have in front of you. You don't want to be looking back in a few years saying, I knew about a scared, I saw three red candles or saw somebody post this really convincing Elliott wave chart that showed it going back to 1000 or something like that. Again, that's why we place enough of the bet where it makes a difference, but it doesn't kill us. Think of this as a call option. If anybody trading options thinking this is a speculative call option, think of it as something we don't need to put much in, but you consider the trade mostly lost. So you place your investment or your trade and what you put in.
You're kind of okay with whenever, okay with, but you're risking that knowing that there's a chance that you won't get that back or just won't do anything. Okay. And that's why that allows you to sleep at night. That I should have a more manageable position. But the upside potential, the asymmetrical opportunity still exists there where you don't need to put a whole lot to get a huge amount in return. And that's the way I approached this, that allows me to sleep at night. That allows me to capture the gains because I get in early, it's better to have a small position early than a huge position up in this middle portion of the cycle. Okay. Cause you're only dealing with a four X or five X here. Here I am saying only, but um, you get the 0.4 X five X in a larger position.
We'll never beat a small position that does, you know, 20 X and 50 exit down the bottom here. So the, my whole point of this is get a manageable position early and just hunker down and be comfortable with it and be, um, you know, appreciative of, of, of the gains that we're seeing here. Take, take the corrections in stride and hold on. And if you don't have a big enough position on the correction, add on, add on the correction. Never be selling into anything more than 20%. Trop if you want to sell because you have too much sell on a peak sell when price is above the Ballinger bands, not below the Ballinger mans. Okay. By those dips, if you have to, to get more of a position. If you are dollar cost averaging cause you don't have enough but you're working and you're getting income, then obviously, um, keep buying but by on those tips as as possible.
I cannot tell you how many people I've met in my career who have lost money on a bull Mark and when they've been early and they've been proponents of it, they've been vocal about it. I'm talking about friends and even myself personally in the.com boom. If for example, in 97, 98, um, my portfolio and portfolio of of friends, I was pretty young at the time, but um, we were up hundreds and hundreds of percent using options as well. Um, margin of course up just ridiculous amounts. And then it all came crashing down, but we didn't believe that it would end. We didn't believe that it could end. And as price went down 30, 40 or 50% in some of these.com names, you know, we doubled down and we borrow more and leverage and thinking that well that was an opportunity, um, not, not realizing at the time that we will.
So then late in the cycle, even though we were in early and on paper, had massive gains. Um, we didn't think it would end and we doubled down the triple down. Um, so yeah, and also we sold earlier that sometimes, so we sold early gains and then we bought back later at higher prices, similar to what I think people have done here where, uh, they sold early because it went from 4,000 to 7,000. Uh, then it went to 10, 11, 12 and they missed out and they were afraid there was going to go 20 quickly. So that bought more and now it's back to eight or nine and they've dumped it. So net after 160% increase, some people are actually down a dollar standpoint. And that happened also during the, you know, Oh five Oh seven Oh eight stock market and it also happened during the gold bull market where a lot of people I was with trading with in some forums for example all over that market.
But of course when a topped they kept buying the top, kept adding to the top cause they were making so much but they'll greedy and they wanted more gains and they kept adding near the top and as it dropped instead of selling, so taking profit, they thought that was even a bigger opportunity and then held the market all the way down to you know, massive losses and declines. So the biggest takeaway from this is Bitcoin can get to a hundred thousand 150,000 per. How you invest, how you rotate your capital in and out of Bitcoin is going to be very important. Decisions you make are going to be important. And that's why you want to be greedy early in the cycle. Okay. In accumulating and then you don't want to be holding and adding. I don't want to see anybody adding Bitcoin above the $20,000 range.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
I won't be buying dips above the $20,000 range. That's why I have a biggest stack now. And I have a strategy and I'll get into that in a minute of reducing my exposure happily. Even though knowing that I expect price to go higher, I will be happily reducing my exposure on the way up and be content with a plan or a strategy that gets me out with a certain level of, uh, you know, of, of capital. Um, realized from that. Um, some people were like, well, you're leaving so much on the table, you know, if you think Bitcoin's going to one 50 or 200, why selling sun trench, you know, 25,000 or 56,000 or a hundred thousand. And again, I've been through bull markets before and bear markets and it's impossible to time every single move. And I want to be able to go in strong and start taking chips off the table at certain predefined points because it takes the emotion, takes the bias out of the investing.
If you go in with a full stack and you try and hold and hold and hold, you're gonna puke your position significantly on big pullbacks and then you're going to kick yourself for having such good profits that you, yes, you may have cashed out on, but then you're sitting without a position entirely and then you end up buying back higher. I've seen it too many times. Whereas I think if you have a strategy going in for the next sort of two, three years that you're going to sell at certain predetermined levels, um, it takes a lot of that stress out of the strategy and yeah, you may not end up, um, taking a full, you know, the, the full price out of the cycle, but I bet you'll beat 90% or 95% of that. But the hustlers who think they can ride it all to the top and cash out at the top.
I was looking at the cycle condensing and then possibly moving higher and, and breaking up. And for that reason I thought if the market moved higher back to 10 or 11, I was not going to get that position. And there was some level of FOMO getting a little more. Um, but also at the nine, four, nine, five level, I thought, well it's only a thousand dollars above a where I plan to get in. I'm comfortable, I'm okay with adding at nine six as opposed to nine five about this being a left translator for year cycle. How, I don't believe that's possible. It's too early, too soon, too quick. But what is possible at least more plausible than um, this being a top so soon is a move to new highs.
Something like this maybe up to, let's just say 35, 40,000 by April, 2020. And then that being the top of the four year cycle and then sorta chopping, chopping, chopping to the next four year cycle low. That to me has some level of possibility that I can't ignore and I want to be able to make sure that I at least come out of this with, um, you know, getting some my money back right. Or getting my investment back and then allowing me to then ride the next four years, essentially all three years from that point, two and a half to the next low with the position and not absolutely freaking out in a left translated scenario where it just doesn't meet any of the expectations that we have. And then I have, doesn't sort of mirror prior four year cycles, but does something significant enough. Um, so the 20th thousand was align that, uh, I kind of drew in here arbitrarily of course, that I want to take some off it cause if we do get something like this where it pops a 40, then comes all the way back down.
Um, I'm not sure what I would do or what you would do at that level. You know what, if it gets up to 38 and comes all the way back to 10 or 12, uh, it's possible that, uh, positions can be dumped. If I can get out and get my investment back at that point, I still believe in Bitcoin's longterm viability in the future and I would be able to hold my 25 for an extended period of time and just weather the storm and weather it out for a two years or three years or however long it takes. S and P 500, if you look at the peak right here, January of 2018 almost two years ago, in fact, and we are right at that price point. So in two years we've gone sideways. Of course we've got this big rally, a huge correction, another rally.
The arrows represent the weekly cycles around about 26 to 28 weeks in lense. On average, we have these clear cut cycles, but we are also forming an inverse head and shoulders here. If you look at this, a shoulder, shoulder, shoulder, shoulder, possibly coming up here in November. Uh, to me this is a massive consolidation in a major uptrend and a major bull market. It is similar in nature and structure and we're at this point right here in the equivalent to this 2015 and 2016 move with a couple of big corrections in, in, in that process. This is where I think we are, it's hard to believe that we're going to go higher from this point given the backdrop of the economy, given the backdrop of where we stand in a 10 year cycle with the recession, uh, many would argue is over Jew, but the fact is, if you recall correct, if you recall back only two, three years ago and in 2015 and 16 timeframe, valuations appeared to be just as rich.
The market appear to be just as extended. It was seven or so years in a bull market. Everyone thought it has to end and it didn't. And it went from this 2100 level down here, 2070 all the way up to 2080. So that was a massive move. I think it can do something similar again. Um, we haven't really seen a massive blow off topic. Maybe we do see that now going into the next election. Um, so there's a lot of possibilities here. I think as long as the structure here, the low staying higher, uh, remains in place as long as the S and P remains above this June, 2019 low. And then I think you want to stay bullish from a longterm. I think you want to have your 401k, your retirement, your portfolio, for example, still expose to stocks. Then of course, some level of bonds or the bonds have had a really good run of late, but you want to be able to have that exposure.
Let me flip out a goal. I talked about it before, but uh, here it is here. So gold had this massive, um, sort of base here. Here's the bull market top. Okay, we had this big drop capitulation and then this despair sort of phase. Here's the bear Mark marker Lowe's here in November and this is the accumulation phase. This is the realization that breakout right here, um, from this line here and now we're up to this point, we just touched the bottom of this big cluster where we dropped in 2012 I think the next point is a retracement that we're incurring and run now. And then I think we come back up and we start to spend a couple of cycles and these cycles are around about 26 weeks as well in length either the weekly cycles up towards the $1,900 range. Okay. So that's where I'm looking at for um, for gold and for silver.
Something similar here. We are probably flagging right now on the weekly, had a nice move higher, but I think we can get up to this $27 range in very, very quick fashion. And that's a better at about a 70% increase from this point. That's my over view of gold, silver, the economy and stocks to taking it back now to a summary quickly. So again, no, I'm not concerned that the bull market is over. Um, yes, I'm still invested. Yes. I still believe in the four year cycle and a six figure Bitcoin price. I covered the fact that you want to have a reasonable allocation and allocation to Bitcoin that you can sleep at night with. It's going to help you. Trust me. You're going to realize more of a gain with a smaller position than you will with a larger gain on paper. That sounds ridiculous, right?
Because um, on paper you're looking at purely the math, but the math doesn't always add up. When you consider the human in you and me, the human element of trading and investing and taking a bigger position into a bull market is most likely going to result in you not achieving the maximum success of that cycle. I prefer to have a more deliberate position that is structured and that I know where my exit points are along the way. And be content with taking X amount out of the market that I know in advance also covered the fact that this cycle four year cycle looks a little different to the prior cycles, but at the same time it's not all that much different. Don't get fixated on past and past. Um, you know, action. Don't get fixated on certain moving averages that they sort of shake you out of position.
Generally when you're bearish about something, it's because again, you're over leveraged and you're concerned and you're fearful. Fear creates, um, you know, this emotion in us that where we go seeking confirmation of our fears as we do on the greed side. We've, we seek confirmation for our bias to keep us in or to make us buy more, do something we necessarily shouldn't be doing. A fee works on the, on the same sort of level and the same on the, on the, on the other side of the spectrum. Um, just avoid that. Uh, have the position again that you're comfortable with and the fear level goes away, meaning you won't be reading so much in the daily and also the weekly charts because the field level is just not there. You control, it's what we seek. If you don't have your full allocation based on what I suggested, go out and get a now at this level, yes, we may drop a little more.
It's too hard to time right now we're already down 40 odd percent. This is not a time for you to be getting cute. Um, you may have gotten even lucky if you didn't buy earlier. You may got, you may have gotten lucky here and this is an opportunity to get back in a different price at a lower price than you may not have if you had to act it earlier. So that could work to your advantage. But don't let the market sort of get away from this point. Uh, once it gets above 10,000, again, probably one turn back. And also it becomes harder and harder to buy and get your position. And also showed you how getting a sort of a, a position at a lower price point, it really does help in the longer terms, um, scheme of things. So that my friends is the four year cycle update.
My latest video, uh, again, this is all off the cuff, right? I don't sort of plan any of this. Uh, I briefly go over and agenda. Um, so I know it's a little scattered and then all over the place. I apologize for that. Um, take what you want out of it. Learn from a tidbits of this. Some of it applies to you, some of it does not. Um, this is just my journey. This is the way I'm approaching it and hopefully some of it is helpful to you as always.
Thank you. I appreciate your following and you sharing and I do wish you all the best. Honestly. Take care. Good luck.