And by the way, what I'm going to share with you in this video, you can apply it not just a Bitcoin, but also you can apply to the charts of the stock market, to the charts of the currencies. In fact, any chart really you want this begin first of all, with the chart of bitcoin. Now you probably know by now that in my previous videos, in my most recent videos, I mentioned that an important level is very important level on the charts, which is a 200 weekly moving average. That's the Green Line you see on my chart right there to 200 weekly moving average. And I mentioned in my previous videos that, look, if bitcoin comes down to this level, very likely we're going to, hold this level and actually see some kind of a, some kind of bounced from these levels. Why? The reason is, let me show you as an example.
This level is so important. Here's an example for you on the chart, the stock markets. Now you probably have noticed by now that stuck markets had the massive drop it had last year, especially towards December. Look where it stopped. Notice where that massive drop in the stock market came to a halt, as you'll see from the bottom of that candlewick right there. That's the. Yeah, came right to the 200 weekly average pierced it, and then notice it then bounced off that level, so just 200 weekly average is an important level, not just for bitcoin but also for stock markets, for gold, for currencies, and by the way, this is one of the reasons why I have to laugh every time I see people out there saying, oh, technical analysis does not work. Oh, chart analysis is useless. Well, if chart analysis and technical analysis completely useless, then why are these levels so important for the market?
Why do the markets hold these levels so beautifully right now? Of course, we know that not every single time these levels with these moving averages hold the markets, but certainly there's a probability, there's a high probability they do usually hold the market as they have done with bitcoin and the stock markets. Let me show you another example. This is the chart, for example here off the Dow, so let's go and look at the chart of the Dow and if I just draw this back for you, let's go back to the year 2015. Now, here's something very important. Notice that in that year in 2015, the dow also had a massive drop. Okay? And look at that candlewick. Look at the bottom. That candle make it held, the 200 weekly average beautifully and bounced off that level. Had a massive rally as you can see there. And then it came back.
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It came back down again in 2015 had to retest. I beg a partnership. I think that was 2016. Yeah, so in 2016 it came back to retest that 100 weekly average. Sometimes they come back down and retest the previous lows and again, notice it held the 200 weekly average very nicely. And what you also have to appreciate is that notice the price did not close below the $200 weekly average. Okay? So the price did not close below the 200, a weekly average itself, the Green Line. Okay. I noticed that bounced off again in 2016 and had a massive bull market rally from there. Okay, so, and here's another example for you. I want to show you; this is off the charts off the euro. So this happens also in the currency markets. So for example here the euro came down the euro drop down to the 200 weekly average here in 2018 last year and held it beautifully.
You can say the hell of that level and had a nice bounce off that level by the way it came back down again to retest that to 100 weekly I average and again notice the euro has not fallen below the 200 weekly average. It's still holding this level and actually just managed to bounce off that level again. So again, you can see this pattern repeats itself also in the currency markets too. There was something else I want to show you if I go back on Bitcoin a few years, let me just show you this. Let's go back to the year 2014 and 2015. So you will see something very interesting that after the last major crash that occurred in Bitcoin, the last of my, the last bear market in Bitcoin that occurred in 2013 and 14. And notice when the price dropped, okay, notice where it dropped down to and weird held it.
Notice again the same pattern repeated back in 2015 prize came to the $200 weekly average is shown to you by the Green Line, held this level, bounced off it, and then it came back again. It came back to test at $100 weekly average later in 2015. Again, notice it held this level and hugged it. You can see it hugged this level continuously until what happened until I started bull market rally from there. So what's important to appreciate is that in technical analysis, this level, the $200 weekly average tends to be a very important support level for not just for Bitcoin, but currencies for stock markets and in fact many other markets including gold and silver as well. So that's why we tend to look at these levels with great interest. And again, this 200 weekly average often tends to be either the end of the previous bear market or the start of the next bull markets.
Okay? And you can see that that's exactly when the bull market started back in the year 2015 at or near the 200 weekly average, which means this, if you just go back to the chart of bitcoin right now as it is, again, this is why we need to pay very close attention to what bitcoin does right now. Is it going to maintain itself above the 200 weekly average? If it does, and again, I mentioned this in a recent video, I said, look, as long as bitcoin can remain above the $200 weekly average. And again, we have to wait until the end of February, beginning of March to see really exactly whether bitcoin can remain above the 200 weekly average or not. And certainly I think if it remains above it, that the chances were Bitcoin, the longterm chancellor bitcoin can be pretty good. But here's something else I'm going to show you and this is quite significant.
So this is the second most important thing you need to appreciate about the 200 weekly average, which is that history has shown that if the price falls below the 200 weekly average and closes below the 200 weekly average, especially below the lows at mate, then things can get much worse. Let me show you an example. This is a chart of the SNP. Back in the year 2008 through the stock markets made a top. They felt that a $200 weekly average, as a matter of fact, they bounced off that 200 weekly average very nicely, came back again to the 200 weekly average again, bounced off again second time round. Sometimes you see prices doing a retest. Again, very common to do a retest. But here's what's really interesting. So if you just mark the first low, but the price made at the 200 weekly average. Okay?
So find it to a hundred weekly average. The first low that the price made right there. And notice when price closes below that low. Okay? So if I just draw a line at that low right there, if I just draw a line across it. Okay, a horizontal line. And here's what I'm trying to show you. When price fell below, that's low initial low, below the 200 moving average. Okay? Things got immensely worse for the market. You can see back then when price closed below the lows, it made things just got much worse and we fell into a massive, much, much bigger bear market. Okay? And by the way, that's what's important for the stock markets right now. Let me show you what I mean. So right now the stock markets have fallen to the 200 weekly average. They had a nice bounce off that level.
But here's the thing, if the stock markets go back down again, it's an if, if the stock markets go back down, let's say the next couple of months, and if they close below the lows they made. So let's say they closed below the lows, they made below the 200 weekly average. Then if that, if that happens, things can get much worse for the stock market and that could actually mean we could be heading towards that potentially a recession or a much bigger market than we originally expected. Something to bear in mind. The same thing by the way, is true for other markets including bitcoin. So bitcoin right now, I mean bitcoin has fallen quite dramatically, quite significantly already, but 80 to 85 percent. Okay? And the bottom line is this, at the moment bitcoin has respected and held the 200 weekly average and bounced off that level, but the question is this, Kenneth remain above that level.
So if we draw a horizontal line, so if we just draw a horizontal line across that level, it's about a 3000, 100 level. If bitcoin were to drop and close below that line. So if bitcoin were to close below the lows, it made near the 200 weekly average back in December, then it's probable that things could get a bit worse for Bitcoin. Okay? That just means what we're trying to say is that perhaps the downtrend could last a bit longer than we expected if that happens. And again, I'm not saying that's what's going to happen at present, there is no indication of that happening, but again, it's an if and if that happens to bitcoin and if we close below the lows that we made near the 200 weekly average back in December, then it's probable that this downtrend than bitcoin could perhaps lasted a bit longer.
All right. How much longer? Again, we'll discuss that in another video. But again, at present we don't know if that's what's going to happen and there was no indication of that, but just something to bear in mind, something that we need to be open minded about. But the bottom line is at present, bitcoin has managed to respect it to 100 weekly average. The question is, can it remain above that level? All right, and how long for. Okay. So let's just wait and see in the next, um, next few weeks or potentially the next couple of months going into the end of February. If bitcoin can still remain on a closing basis above the 200 weekly average, if does remain above the 200 weekly average, potentially by end of February or beginning of March, then things could actually begin to look good for Bitcoin for the longterm, but if it doesn't, if it falls below those levels, below those lows, then again, things could get a bit worse and we could see lower levels on bitcoin as we've seen with other markets as well.