Bitcoin may crash to 2500 or 1500 mark range. Be prepared to buy in full of stack and HODL for an x20 profits in Future Bitcoin bull run
It's been a few weeks at least since my last video. Um, quite frankly, I've just been pretty busy with a building, a lot of content trading full time and also working with some different businesses and ventures that I'm involved. So please accept my apology for that. I will try today and give you an update on where I see the 60-day cycle, the short term, but of course focus more on the long term that I said. Well, dedicate as channel four. Look at the kind of the four-year cycle outlook where I see potentially a big coin moving over the coming year or at least this year in 2019 and give you some more strategies on how to trade Bitcoin and invest in this type of environment. And then lastly, as a disclaimer, again, information or provide here on this video is not for you to go out and buy or sell immediately.
Uh, especially and this means primarily the short term analysis that I provide, especially on the 60-day cycle, I can flip bullish and bearish in a heartbeat. If a daily chart, even a four-hour chart tells me otherwise, my position will change. So by the time you watch this video, the day after or three days after that, I may already be in a different BTC position. So this is why it's impossible to use youtube and a weekly or biweekly type forum and videos to give you an idea of what I'm doing from a trading perspective. Now from our huddle or holding or investing perspective, that's not going to change with the fluctuations from day to day. And it shouldn't change day to day. If you are investing, we'll have a longterm horizon. The day to day movements, no matter how wild the swings are, should not impact and will not affect how you view your long-term investing strategy.
So please be aware of that. Do not follow me here, only on Youtube from a trading standpoint, please. Okay, so let's get into this. Let's talk short term for a little bit, and then we'll go to the longterm view. So right now, day 43 of a 60-day cycle, 43 days is well past the midpoint of a 60-day cycle, meaning that we are now in a defensive mindset. Anytime a cycle, especially in a bear market or in a sideways chopping market like we have right now, we need to be a defensive whenever the cycle goes beyond day 30. And why is that? Well, because we've seen a lot of left translated sequences, meaning the top has occurred on or before the midpoint of the cycle. So fewer days are going up, more days going down. That has been the pattern for one year and three months.
We have day 1927 day 30 for example, 34 27, all these here when midpoints or I should say these occurred, the tops happened before the midpoint making these all left translated. You will see a more significant or more lengthy decline in time, uh, for each of these cycles. So that pattern of cycles has not broken just yet. We are not in a new bull market, and we're not even a hundred percent sure if the four-year cycle low is ahead of us or behind us. Um, so for that reason we need to stick with the previous trend and the last knowledge cycle that we have at hand. And currently what I'm seeing is that we have a day 18 high that has yet to exceed in this cycle. Now we do have a nice little uptrend trend developing here, but it's coming on a lack of any significant volume.
I do not see any real significant momentum on Bitcoin or urgency to buy this market. And by day 43 I really would have expected it to a broken out significantly by this point if we were in a new type of trend or I've trend. So what does that mean exactly? It says that I think we still can perhaps see a move higher over the next few days to break the day 18 high and essentially negate or remove the top of there because the news cycle high would be in the future. And also to break above the day nine high that we have back in December for the price cycle. But I think if we do get up into this area of the next few days that this will act more like a bull trap in the short term then it will anything else, because we have a cycle low Jew and some point in April and it's coming up within the next sort of two or two to four weeks in fact.
So it's coming up pretty quickly. So I think if we do get this move up, I think we're going to come back down, and we're going to find a low at some point in this area, hopefully in this area. I mean number cycles and not necessarily about price. They're more about time. So this is the window where we see perhaps the next cycle low. The good news is that if we do pop above and make new highs for 2019, it makes the possibility that we will see a higher low in the cycle low because we have a higher high. So what we'll be doing is creating kind of this new stepping Bitcoin uptrend. So here's a high higher, low, higher high, um, another higher high here in a higher low, I'm sorry this would have been negated. So we would have a high here, higher, low, higher high.
So this high here would be higher than this one and then hopefully this low here in April would be higher than these two lows. So then that creates a new trend of higher highs and higher lows, which then brings into um, into focus this December low as being the four year cycle or that I've talked about in previous videos. So that's kind of like the bullish scenario that's, that's out there. Let's draw in for, for the, for the time being a window, let's just say from April the second, the earliest part to around April, April 23rd, we're going to draw in this big box. This is the timing window for the next cycle low. So I think we suddenly find a low below, it was kind of 3,700. I don't see how a low, we're not sort of form below that range. The question then is how low can it go?
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And that depends on the four year cycle as well. But let's just draw it down here just for argument's sake, just so we have a mental and a visual on what their potential is coming up. So how do we get into the lower area of this timing box? So what that might look like is let's take a different color here. This is kind of you're really bearish scenario where essentially we're almost right at the top of the cycle or we may even just get a little more out of this. Okay, probably don't exceed the day 18 high. And then that keeps it left, translated 18 and days to the top and then you know, kind of a double top and then a move lower. So in that case then we have a lot more time in the cycle or not enough time, at least left in the cycle to get down deeper into the lows.
And then the question becomes, does the February cycle low become kind of a, a support range, a double bottom or does the December low become a double bottom and sort of a retest of a four year cycle low and then a move higher? Okay. That is probably my favorite viewpoint right now. That preserves the idea that this is the four year cycle low. This is a retest and now we've created a new kind of separation between the prior four year cycle low or the or the prior cycle lows here at 3,100 and where we are now at 40 40 50 list to see if we get up to 4,100 down to this December cycle. Low point is another thousand dollars drop or a roundabout 20%. That's significant enough if there happens over a short period of time to create enough kind of fear and panic and capitulation on high volume to kind of induce an end to this bear market or this sort of crypto winter.
Now it's not never going to, it's never going to skyrocket and until probably next year, but, uh, a enough of a decline here for this to create a real sort of a v, um, slingshot type of action up into the 44,000 range and up towards maybe even 5,000 by kind of the earliest summer months. Okay. And lastly, let's look at the ultimate bearish scenario here, which to be honest with you, I think has enough credibility for me to actually be pointing this out. And that is where we get kind of a flush, a real heavy volume, really large, significant capitulation and sell off that, um, could be marked as a four year cycle low, uh, at this point. So it's similar to the green bar, it's just that steeper, right? We get down to test the December Lowe's quicker and then we kind of just get deeper and deeper into that point and then we come out and kind of the same kind of end result as the green scenario where you have this v shaped recovery.
Um, but I find that most big bear markets either end in this wide, a very wide, uh, basing double bottom type pattern or they end in a v if it ends in the green, which a double bottom, it probably going to take a lot longer to sort of come out of that over the summer months. Whereas if we get this really big selloff, we may even slingshot rapidly up towards 5,000 and beyond. But this here is a scenario that I'm, I'm putting enough weight behind and will not be surprised to see to be honest with you. And in some ways I kind of want to see this. I feel that this could bring an end to this bear market once and for all by doing that and get us up into kind of the five, $6,000 range and testing if I zoom out and testing that $6,000 area much sooner, um, in the early portion of a four year cycle as opposed to maybe later in the year as well.
No, it also often get asked what if you're wrong? What if it just goes sharply higher from here? And it doesn't necessarily look back and my answer to to those types of questions is always, well I will respond, you know, I will adapt and change. The one good thing about cycles are a lot of people don't seem to get is that it's not supposed to be a definitive and absolute type of study. Like something like Elliot Wave, which may be more rigid in how certain waves are counted and measured in cycles. There really isn't such a concept. Cycles are just the reflection and a look at at the price action over time and we don't necessarily always get this perfect little oscillating Eben flow action in cycles. Sometimes you just get a sort of freak move where you know something like this would has happened and then the cycle low happens all the way up here, you know, and then we may get tests like this.
That's also possible. The reason why I don't mention it is because one, there's a limit to how many sort of alternative scenarios that you can have in trading. I it becomes too noisy at some point too. You have to have some conviction in what you see ahead of you so you can trade with conviction. And it's only when you don't have conviction that you don't want to be a necessary trading. Right. So right now I do have a decent amount of conviction that we're going to be heading lower to some extent into a cycle over in April. So my trading strategy in the short term is going to reflect that. But, um, but I'm not, I'm still, I'm not naive to think that it has to be that way because I'm not, um, I'm not sort of pigheaded in that sense because it does impact your trading if you're not flexible enough.
So I have the conviction that we will be going lower, but I'm willing to accept anything the market gives me and the market and price action deviates, you know, uh, or moves against really what I think is going to happen then that's where my trading and my trade size and my risk management comes into play. Right? That's where I'm getting out rapidly. I'm acknowledging to myself that my analysis is incorrect and I am adapting our may even at that point say, Hey, this is actually not bearish. It's bullish, right? It's bullish in the short term. So is the way narrative or a scenario that shows me a bullish path forward that I can trade. So I want to adapt quickly. And that goes to my point in the beginning of this video that if I'm going to provide a video once or twice a week, once a week or once every two weeks, it's not frequent enough for you to get a sense for what I'm doing in the short term.
Right. I get people, uh, respond to my video two weeks later and say, Hey, wrecked, you know, you got wrecked. Well, no, I think it wrecked. I probably got stopped out for a very small loss or may have or most likely moved up my stops to a break even point quickly and then it came back and took out my stock or something like that is more likely what happened. But for somebody who following her, it doesn't get that extra information, that PR that I have that I trade, it's not going to be helpful. And, and yes, they may get wrecked. So just be aware of that as well. All right, so let's flip the lens to the holders or hustlers and investors on this channel, which really is the main motivation of this channel. And this is where it's not sexy guys. This is where it's not supposed to be sexy as well.
So, um, I really hate using that word, but my point is, um, you know where at the depths of a bear market, we may or may not have the four year cycle low in December behind us. If it's not behind us, then I think it's coming right here in April. And I've drawn in this box on the weekly chart here to kind of tell you that, uh, well we probably will be somewhere in the 3,800 range and as far down as honestly as a $2,200 range, that is the potential coming up here in the, uh, in the April 60 days cycle. Lovage too. So the question then is, um, where does that cycle low form. Okay. Um, and does that bring in the new four year cycle low? Now for me, it, it doesn't matter a whole lot. I, I'm not too concerned with nailing the absolute bottom in real time.
Um, as this for as this drop was occurring, I thought there's a good chance this is a four year cycle lower, but also in my video regarding the four year cycle, um, that has a, that's on this channel here. You'll notice that I have drawn in kind of another drop in, in February for this cycle of law. That was a potential, this cycle in 60 days cycle didn't do much at all. It ended up pretty short, uh, on 53 days and didn't form a new price loads. But the fact that we have not yet seen a new high in the 60 day cycle here, uh, leads me to believe there's a potential and opportunity now for this to move one more time, lower and really shake out the last sort of remaining holders or the people that are very kind of frustrated with the time.
That's taken to get back into kind of a bull market trend from the December, 2017 hire. So people have, especially people who have not gone through bull and bear markets of this nature before, they tend to, they tend to have too much sort of recency bias and expect things to return quickly back to a bull market. But the reality is bare markets, uh, need to and often become just as extreme on the downside, um, as the, as the bull market was on the upside, so as euphoric and as crazy and as leverage and as speculative as the bull market at the end becomes, um, the bear market on the other end becomes kind of this hopeless sideways churning, um, fake out shakeout type of action that just keeps going on and on and on. I've talked about this long crypto winter, how people should expect, um, even though we may expect a or receive a actual price low, they shouldn't not expect too much in terms of upside price action for a long period of time.
Most of 2019 may also be and should probably be conducted in, in kind of this lower area as well. And that to people who, uh, overexposed or still sitting on underwater positions that they bought at higher prices, at some point it begins to take a toll on their psychic and their psychology, uh, where they are, uh, very weak holders of coin and of assets. And when you do see a cut another capitulation deep into a bear market, perhaps then they are more likely to panic, more likely to essentially just give up. Even though today as it stands, they may not be saying to themselves they're going to give up. But you know, another $1,000 or one the half thousand dollars drop in price of a very short and rapid period of time essentially changes how somebody sees, um, the position and what the habit risk and can and will often makes her a rash decisions that they weren't prepared to make or thought they would make at this time in the bear market.
Okay. So what's the takeaway here? The takeaway is simply that for an investor, right where looking to accumulate and to have a full position at this point because we're looking at a four year cycle low in December or one coming up in April, we're not concerned with timing a potential decline in April. It's a difficult game. Uh, and it's a difficult process to be profitable with. We should be very happy with, um, accumulating bitcoin in this sort of $3,000 range. I think when we look back at this in years to come, um, saving or trying to capture 300 or 500 or $700 in price when we're looking at potentially a 20 x 30 x move from this point is ridiculous. We want to be positioned well and strong. I think what's more important is that we are now psychologically prepared for perhaps one more decline here in April into this cycle low.
And how strong a you in preparation and mindset for that? Uh, I know many people kind of want to believe that the long term narrative it sounds, and of course it does sound great, um, when described, but it's a different, different practice to, to holding all the way through. Um, it's easy to dream, but it's difficult to hold. So be prepared now for what potentially could be coming up in the next few weeks. And I suggest even knowing that cycle loads coming, I suggest that people are still sort of fully, uh, fully have fully accumulated by this point. There's no, there's no point in trying again to, to skim off the bottom here. Um, have your position and just be prepared mentally for a decline that comes in. Not to sell, not to panic. You've, you've lasted, um, you know, 15 months at this point, you're already down 85% from the highs.
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Uh, hopefully, you know, we need it down 95% on your position of course. But, um, this is not the place in this whole area is not the place to be looking for capitulation and being one of those victims or one of those sort of cases where we look back in the future and say, Oh God, you, you really get sold down there. Don't be one of them. Um, you know, just people painful for what's coming up. And then in closing, you know, I've talked a lot on the community board here on the youtube channel about kind of coming up with a huddle strategy for a sort of modern or, or, or an intelligent investors huddle strategy, which incorporates holding for the long term but not, not holding, um, no matter what price is there. So being a little more intelligent in accumulating at the right times, like now and offloading and sort of going back into either fear or some other type of asset class at the highest of a major cycle.
So that debt, I'm still thinking through and looking at maybe building out a forum site, what we can discuss this in a forum setting and then having kind of like a weekly or monthly video that comes along with that. And then also coming up with more of a different if plan on, um, you know, how much allocation do we have as a Po in relation to our total net worth or are some of our profit targets, where are we, where are we reducing on the way up, you know, at what point in the cycle and the four year cycle coming up, we're looking to offload certain amounts so we're a profit targets going up. And then also how we handle the psychology of, of gains, right? I mean, I don't want to talk about gains now cause we were all sort of suffering through a decline.
So we're looking at a, you know, losses on paper at this point for at least in the short term. But at some point as this reverses out, we want to be also have a strategy in place for how to handle, um, sitting on gains. We were sitting on gains is actually much harder than sitting on lawsuits people get. So I'm biased in certain times that they are and can they panic into a cell and they don't actually. So they hold all the way down and, and maybe in this case that might be a good thing, but be honest with you. Holding through major gains is also just as difficult to do, especially when you're position doubles and triples and quadruples in, in uh, in profit. Holding that on and looking and focusing on the grand sort of prize is a very difficult task. So that's one thing I also want to focus on in on that site that I talked about and then on the investing Haldol strategy that I want outlined for you and start to sort of incorporate with you kind of in, in, in realtime as well.
So it will hopefully be a four year kind of journey where we are constantly talking through the journey where we've been, you know, what are, what our goals are, for example, and working through that together. So that's a, that's still a little update. I have thought for this for this week on Youtube, I will consider and work on kind of that longer term strategy, huddle investing plan. Did I mentioned maybe that can be come out in a couple of weeks from now, but again, be prepared here. I'm seeing some, you know, I'm seeing some danger and reasons to, to be, to be bearish in the short term. Um, be prepared for that. That's just part of the strategy. Okay. All the best. Thank you for listening. Please like the video. Please share the video. Please subscribe to this channel. I would appreciate it. And until next time, good luck.