Bitcoin will rise to a 10 k or will drop to 2k
And this video I want to talk to you about the recent situation in bitcoin. And actually this video is going to be quite controversial as you're about to find out. So, uh, as you can see here, as I'm looking at this chart today on Tuesday, bitcoin has just had another surge higher. And I want to talk to you about the potential wave counts that we're dealing with here on bitcoin. So I'm going to show you two alternative wave counts on bitcoin and show you which of these is more probable. So firstly, let me show you this chart over here. Now this is a line chart of bitcoin. So it's not a bar chart that's not a candlestick chart, it's a line chart. So we're only looking at the closing prices of Bitcoin.
And on this chart, what you see here is that I've, I've applied our own lt Elliott waves indicator and this is the default setting of our indicator. And what this default setting is showing to us right now is that we could potentially be in the start of a brand new way, three off a potential uptrend in bitcoin. Now as you probably know, I have a different way of interpretation which I explained to you in my previous videos. I'll come to that in just a few moments. But here's the thing, before I explained to her the other wave interpretation, I went to first of all say that this particular wave count you're seeing here that were potentially starting a new one, two, three wave count and the upside is perfectly valid and there is nothing wrong with this interpretation as far as the wave structure goes.
Let me explain to you why. For one thing, the reason why this particular interpretation of a potential of one two three wave count to the upside could be correct is because, well firstly because we puts in, as you can see are a higher low. So after bitcoin made a low here in, um, in the center in December, we put a higher low in in February and then bitcoin took out resistance here. As you can see, the previous high. So essentially it made a higher low and a high or low is one of the signs of a potential uptrend. Not only that though, it's not just that, it's also the fact that bitcoin has also gone above the 200 daily moving average. You can see, right, there was this Green Line you see here, this Green Line is the 200 daily moving average and bitcoin has now gone above that level.
Okay? In fact, twice now, the first time it didn't succeed, the second time that bitcoin has managed to close and go above that 200 daily moving average. Okay. So on a wave structure level and also on a chart analysis based on the high or low and the 200 day moving average. It is perfectly possible and it's perfectly valid to argue that we could be setting up here for a potential new wave three to the upside, not always the potential one, two, three wave count to the upside of a potential bull market. Okay, that is perfectly about it. There's nothing wrong with this and let me just say there's some good friends of mine who were very respectable chart analysts and they believe that we are actually right now in the start of a new way, three in Bitcoin to the upside. Okay. Now you're probably thinking then why is it in my previous video I showed a different wave counts which showed this was a way for opposed to a wave three so let me explain this to you.
Okay? And what I'm going to do is I'm going to go into the settings of this indicator. What you're seeing here is the settings off our lt Elliott waves indicator. This is the latest version, version nine and as you can see here, I put this right now, right now what you're seeing on the right hand side is the default setting of our indicator, but I put into into this indicator I put into the settings and alt and alternative is cold, delayed wave change as you can see right over here, okay, all 10 delayed wave change. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to put a tick into this box and notice what happens when I tick this box for the delayed wave change and all 10 you will see what happens in the right hand side. There it is. So that now changes the wave count from three to a four and there was a corrective way for all right?
So you're probably thinking, why have I decided to change the default setting of the Elliott wave indicator from three to this new setting of a four and the alternate account that I've just shown you. So the reason is this, the reason I included this ultimate count all 10 for a delayed wave change is I only choose this particular alternate. This delayed wave change in special circumstances. I'll expand to those circumstances in a few moments, but this is an alternate so this all 10 is something I would only apply is a setting. I only apply in special circumstances when there are external factors that don't quite make sense. Okay. So I'll explain to you what those external factors are and I would only apply this alternate about 20% of the time, not all the time. So let me explain this to you. There are a lot of things happening in the background right now which are in conflict with a potential new bull market in bitcoin and these external factors that actually literally little to do with the charts.
Let me explain to stoop. There is something in market analysis that we call sentiment and you might've heard about sentiment before, but market sentiment looks at what other than what the majority of people out there are thinking about the markets. All right. As a contrarian indicator. In other words, and what seems to be happening is that on youtube and many social media channels, there's been a sudden increase in the number of videos that are coming up that bitcoin has bottomed. So they're being tremendously a lot of videos coming out on youtube that are saying, you know what bitcoin is potentially bottom. And as you can see as an example for you right here. So this is one person who's put a video up called bitcoin bottom confirmed, uh, and it can see what they're showing here. They're showing that bitcoin has potentially broken a trendline, uh, and actually is now increased.
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Then he could see the projection here. The projection they're putting here is for a move up towards the 10,000, 20,000 level. So very, very bullish picture on this video as you can see here. Uh, so there's a lot of videos that are actually saying this. Here's another one for you. This is another video that was published quite recently. Again, this is just in the last week. By the way, this video is saying pretty much the same thing. The bitcoin is broken a trend line. They're talking about a bump and run bottom again, calling about a mind blowing bitcoin bumping run reversal bottom. And here's another one here. This one is another video talking about the exact same thing that potential bull run and a bitcoin bottom as well. The problem is this, the problem is that the majority of the time markets don't usually bought them or Marcus don't usually start a bull market when everybody is expecting it.
All right, so let me just repeat that. Markets the majority of the time, it doesn't matter which market, bitcoin or stock markets or gold, it doesn't matter. The fact is that markets don't usually start the bull market when everybody is expecting that thing to happen. In fact, it's the opposite. Marcus actually has started bull run or a bull market when everybody is not expecting it or when everybody is actually quite very bearish and it seems actually take a look at this. This is actually a data from Jason Gephardt's. This chart is courtesy of Jason get bird and what he's saying to us quite recently, it's quite interesting. Uh, this is a chart of bitcoin. As you can see on the top. All right. And down here is a sentiment. This is the public opinion sentiment, okay? Uh, in other words, the majority of people out there and bitcoin's sentiment hits an extreme optimism.
As you can see, look at this, that this red line here shows the optimism range. And look at this. This hit extreme optimism. Just very recently, I look at this. Bitcoin did not actually drop. It went sideways. I'll explain to you what that potentially means in a few moments, but let me explain to you what this extreme optimism usually means. It took a look at this. This is for example, in the last bear market we had in bitcoin. Um, as you'll see, whenever bitcoin hits an extreme optimism, typically this, for example, here, bitcoin sentiment becomes extremely optimistic. And look what happens. Bitcoin actually right there starts to fall as you can see right there. Here's another one for you. Uh, again, uh, well that could have been one right there. But here's another one more extreme one right here. Bitcoin hits extreme optimism. This one takes a bit of time.
On this occasion. It took a while for Bitcoin to actually start dropping. It took about a couple of weeks, maybe two or three weeks before bitcoin sort of dropping and then finally dropping much heavier until bitcoin hits another extreme level. Take a look at this right here. Bitcoin, extreme optimism when a spike you see right there and then yet again, you can see bitcoin once again, started dropping from there. Here's some more examples for you. So again, in 2015 this one after a bitcoin major low, that formed right there in 2015 bitcoin hit another sentiment and other republic opinion sentiment. Extreme right there. Uh, in 2015 and look what happened. It's again, it took a delayed reaction from bitcoin. About a week or so later, bitcoin continued to go a bit higher. But then look what happened. It started dropping again some months later. Bitcoin once again hit an extreme optimism. And as I said before, sometimes it takes, it takes a while, about a couple of weeks, maybe two or three weeks later, bitcoin dense started dropping.
As you can see here, and again, you'll see some months later, but going hit an extreme optimism right there. And here again, about a couple of weeks later, bitcoin went up and Dennis started dropping again. Okay. So usually these extreme optimism readings are contrair in indicators. Okay. It means that people, the public are getting extremely optimistic about bitcoin and that means we should probably step back and be very cautious because usually it means that bitcoin probably might do a reversal in the next few weeks. So going back to this chart, what seems to have happened is the bitcoin has hit and extreme sentiment, extreme optimistic sentiment. Reading that bitcoin has not reacted to it. Okay. In fact, it's done the opposite, but going has continued to go higher. That potentially means it potentially means that bitcoin could be seeing a delayed reaction to that extreme optimism. Reading that we just saw it right there. So one major reason that has me concerned that this rally we're seeing here is the start of a new bull market is the fact that the sentiments readings are in conflict with the charts.
Okay. So sometimes there's a conflict between the sentiment and what we're seeing on the charts. All right. So that's one of the reasons why I think that we are still potentially dealing probably with a way for corrective move in bitcoin. All right. Rather than the new start of a bull run. The second reason is this, something I mentioned in my previous video, which was a lot of the times as we saw in 2015 bitcoin, you know, after a major bear market sometimes puts in rallies, strong powerful rallies, which looked like their start of a bull market. But actually both of these times, both of these rallies failed and they came back to its previous, almost down to his previous lows. So we've seen things like this happened before. And there's also another reason I would say very important reason we need to be aware of, which is the fact that there's a tremendous amount of resistance near the 6,000 to 6,500 level.
And I think it's quite likely that if bitcoin manages to somehow get up to these levels, that 6000 levels, I think bitcoin is going to struggle. I think any potential moves on bitcoin to these levels, these resistance as 6000 levels are going to be met with a lot of resistance. And we could potentially see short sellers taking control the market around these levels. And, and by the way, I'll make a separate video for you as to why these levels of 6000 levels are so important. Okay, so we'll cover that in a separate video. Now I know what some of your probably thinking a, some of you are probably thinking, well that even if bitcoin moves up to let's say 8,000 or 10,000 that I'm still gonna be saying, no, this is a correction on bitcoin. No, of course not. That is ludicrous and ridiculous. As I just explained a few minutes ago, this is a delayed wave change, which means we've changed a wave pattern. The wave settings temporarily due to external factors, which are in conflict with what's happening on the charts. And what I'll do is in a separate video, I'll explain to you what needs to happen on bitcoin before we can have more confidence.