Is bitcoin in a bear market correction wave
We all agree that Bitcojnnew bull run has started. But what if we are all wrong and we fooled, and we are on a BIG bear trap? See video, and you will understand what I am talking about.
This is a video which many of you have been asking for. So in this video I'm going to try my best to answer an important question, which is this, what if what we're seeing on the chart of bitcoin is not what everybody thinks this is. In other words, what if this is not a bull market in bitcoin and what bitcoin has not actually bottomed. Now, before I start this video, let me just mention this quickly, I've already made two separate videos stating the bullish case for Bitcoin. So in two separate videos, I've already addressed the question that if bitcoin has bottomed, what could potentially happen next? So in that video covered the bullish case for bitcoin and said if bitcoin has actually bottomed and we could be starting a five wave move towards the 30,000 and 50,000 levels on bitcoin. Now in this video we're going to look at bitcoin from the opposite point of view.
In other words, what if what we're seeing right now on the chart of bitcoin is not what everybody thinks it is. In other words, what if what we're seeing right now on bitcoin is not actually a bull market and what if it's not actually bottomed? Now, I'm sure there's people who are watching this video right now and they're probably screaming, that is ridiculous. Of course, bitcoin has bought them. Just look at it. This is a definite bull market. It just looks like a bull market, right? I mean, what else is this? What else has this parabolic move in bitcoin if it's not a bull market? Now, let me just say this, I do sympathize with that point of view. I have to say, when you look at a chart like this a bit coin, it does appear to be like a major bull market and a major uptrend that could take us toward the 20,000 and 30,000 and potentially 50,000 levels.
However, as many professional traders and analysts will know, just because the chart's may look like they're showing a bull market, it does not necessarily mean that it is. So while I realized that what I'm going to argue in this video may not be easy. However, it's important to consider bitcoin from every angle. As I'm sure you would agree, it's important to look at the market from every possible angle so we can be better prepared. Therefore, in this video, I'm going to show you three pieces of evidence as to why bitcoin may not actually have bottomed. All right guys, let's start with reason number one extreme sentiment. Now, as I'm sure you already know, the sentiments readings on bitcoin off the charts. For example, according to a recent report from Jason [inaudible] who looks at market sentiment and sentiment, as I'm sure you probably know is how optimistic or pessimistic people are in general regarding to bitcoin and right now, according to the sentiments readings from Jason [inaudible], we are an extreme 2017 levels.
In other words, extreme 2017 highs off sentiment or bullishness in Bitcoin, and right now according to sentiment readings from Jason Gephardt, we are at extreme sentiment. Reading's not seen since December, 2017 this will come as no surprise to anybody because you only have to read some of the comments on social media to see what people are saying about bitcoin. Let me just read you a few. Here's one comment here. Bitcoin has certainly bottomed. You will never be able to buy bitcoin under 3,200 ever again. Folks, we're headed to a market cap of 1 trillion. Here's another one, 58 k not impossible, but I don't believe it. Here's another one. You will buy bitcoins over 20 K or wait forever. Good luck, and another one for you. Of course, there is no regarding anything in the markets. The probabilities are overwhelming that we have bottomed and most analysts that I know have already or are coming around to this. By the way, he's right about that. The great majority of analysts and people who write articles seem to be of the opinion that bitcoin has definitely bottomed. So bottom line is this guys, a lot of people right now seem to be extremely bullish, and here's one thing we should remember. Jim Rogers, one of the greatest golden investors of all time, warned about the dangers of the majority opinion. Listen to this.
Wait, what I've learned in life is normally one, everybody's thinking the same way. You should start at least thinking, Hey, wait a minute. It cannot be right. If everybody's thinking the same way, and it nearly always is that when everybody's thinking the same way, somebody is not thinking and you should at least examine the other side so
you guys, as you heard there, Jim Rogers was warning and when everybody is thinking the same thing, we should probably take a look at the other side as well. In other words, given the fact that so many people right now are so extremely bullish on Bitcoin, we should at the very least start questioning this majority view because the majority could be wrong as well. All right guys, let's go to reason number two and other major reason as to why bitcoin may not have bottomed is because of the speed of the current move in bitcoin. Take a look at this guys and notice how extremely fast and parabolic this move in bitcoin has become. A lot of people are saying right now, well this is just a normal bull market. They are wrong and I'll show you why. By the way, notice that on bitcoin is a monthly chart.
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A bit coin. We're almost at the 50% retracement and not too far away from the 61.8% retracement either, which are about the 11,400 to 13,000 levels. In other words, guys, in just a few months, we have almost retraced 50% of the previous decline in bitcoin. Now, why is that something to be concerned about? Here's why. Look at the previous bitcoin bull market rally from 2015 to 2017 so this was when bitcoin bottom, the 2015 and that was the highs, the peak we made near 20,000 in 2017 now take a look at this and you tell me this looks like anything we're looking at right now on bitcoin. This is the weekly chart, by the way. I think you'll agree with me. This looks nothing like or we're looking at right now in bitcoin. Here's why. Number one, look how long it took from the previous bottom in the previous crash and the previous bear market of bitcoin.
When bitcoin bought on the 2015 look how long it took for it to actually recover. 50% of its previous declined. It took a year and a half, a year and a half before he could retrace. 50% of its previous declined. This time round, it's taken almost six months. Something is not quite right here. That's not all. Let's go to this next chart over here and the previous bull market rally that occur between 2015 2017 notice. First of all, we had two failed rallies. This is what normally happens is in a bull market at the start of every bull market in a healthy bull market, usually we get failed rallies, meaning rallies that don't end up anywhere. Plus noticing the bull market from 2015 2017 you will see how many times bitcoin came back to test. It's 21 weekly average. This is what happens in a healthy bull market. In a healthy market, you see a steady and measured upward trend.
In other words, a staircase pattern. You'll see a market goes up. Okay, pull back the 21 week we got rich and then goes up, pulls back to the 21 weekly out of rich and so on and so on. You will see several pullbacks to the 21 weekly average as the market moves higher by the way, notice something else and the previous bull market. Notice that during these pullbacks at no time did bitcoin fall below. It's 21 weekly average in every pullback it protected and state above it closed above the 21 weekly average. That is also something you see in a healthy bull market and again guys, as I mentioned before, you only have to take a look at a chart of bitcoin right now and look at it not as single pullback. So far, not a single pullback at a 21 weekly average. We have yet to test this moving average.
We have not done that yet. Now it's possible, but in the next few weeks we will do that. We'll have to wait and see. But so far what bitcoin is doing is unlike its previous bull market rally, and you could argue quite persuasively that what's happening in bitcoin right now is not usually what happens in a healthy bull market. It doesn't look like what's happened in the previous bull market and here's another thing guys. Actually what's happening in bitcoin right now is this market looks too bullish. It looks extremely bullish and positive, and that could be a red flag. You may ask, well, if this is not a bull market, then what is it our guys? Let's go to reason number three, be waves or bear market rallies. The gentleman you see here is Robert proctor and Robert proctor is one of the world's experts on what is called Elliot Wave Theory.
You'll see guys, according to Elliot Wave Theory, what could be happening is what's called the be wave or a bear market rally. Before I go into that, let me first of all read this. Here's what Robert Proctor says in his book, the Elliott wave principle. He says, be waves are phoneys there, sucker plays, bull traps, speculator's paradise or Jews of odd louder mentality or expressions of dumping. Institutional complacency or both. They often are unconfirmed by other averages are rarely technically strong and are virtually always doomed to complete retracements by wave. See if the analyst can easily say to himself, there is something wrong with this market, chances are it's a be wave. So what does it be? Wave. Let's take a look at this chart. You see guys, what we're talking about essentially is a bear market rally. So even if you don't follow Elliot Wave Theory, the fact there's this principle of bear market rallies is known to most chartists.
The last major uptrend in bitcoin ended in 2017 with wave five. As you see right there when bitcoin top at near 20,020 17 it started a major crash and made a drop. That was potentially the a wave. Okay? In other words, where we are potentially dealing with right now, the current rally could be, uh, be wave rally. In other words, a bear market rally, which is very common in any better market. Then once the Bya of rally completes, then we'll potentially start to see wave retracement, that sea wave move to make a new bottom, new bottom, potentially below the lows of wave a and then we'll start the new uptrend in bitcoin. By the way, this is also quite important. Appreciate sometimes they'd be wave can go as high as the previous high it made before it started the wave a. In other words, it's very possible for a B wave rally for a bear market rally to go back to its previous highs that previous high bitcoin made in 2017 year 20,000 so that is a possibility we need to consider as well.
Once the Bvi of complaints will move towards a seaway of correction or sea wave drop towards the previous lows have made. And once that completes, then we'll start the new uptrend towards the 50,000 levels. Let me show you some examples. So here's Bitcoin in 2014 and 2015 notice guys that into previous bear market of Bitcoin, something like that actually happened. As you'll see here, we had a beach wave rally as you see here, after the major crash in bitcoin that occurred from 2013 2014 it had a major rally. Now, a lot of folks at the time thought, oh, this is probably the next major bull market in bitcoin. Look, it's going above the 21 weekly average and it's rallying higher. Therefore it is could potentially be the next bull market except it was not a bull market. This was only a bear market rally. As you can see here.
When that be waived, a bear market rally finished. You then started the sea wave lower and it actually bottomed out near the 200 just below the 200 levels. Here's the example on gold, very similar situation on gold after it crashed in 2011 notice that it's also formed the be wave rally, which many people thought, oh, you know what? This is the next bull market. It's going to go up to you know, five thousand ten thousand on gold. It didn't do that. It crashed and continued to move lower towards this wave. See Target. Here's an example for you in the stock market. There is similar thing happened during the DOTCOM crash of the year 2000 2001 what we could be dealing with right now. Take a look at this chart of bitcoin right now. In other words, something similar might be happening here on bitcoin. Let's take a look at this chart, so this is the 2015 bottom here.
We had a five wave uptrend which completed back in 2017 and since then we've had this major correction or drop. In other words, if the current move in Bitcoin is not actually a bull market, what we could be dealing with is something like this. As you can see here, the wars, the current rally might actually be, let me zoom in on this chart. Let me show you what it could be dealing with is if it's not a bull market then it's probably a B wave or a band market rally. In other words, guys, the current rally we're dealing with is potentially a be wave retracements in other wars that be wave rally, which is making a retracement of its previous a wave crash and that means this, if this is actually a be wave or band market rally, which is a probability, then therefore once the be wave completes, let's say for example near the 61.8% retracement levels, which is about the 13,000 levels, then we could potentially start the next c wave, drop the c retracement towards and below the previous lows of the a way from other wards below 3000 and that could mean a c wave targeted potentially 2000 and maybe even towards the 1800 and 1700 levels before finally bottoming out.
And that could start the next major uptrend tours the thirty thousand fifty thousand levels on bitcoin. So guys, in this view, what we're saying is that if potentially what we're dealing with is a p wave or bear market rally that in this scenario the loads of 2018 near 3,100 was not actually the bottom in bitcoin but simply a temporary low before we complete the BA wave to bear market rally. And then we'd put into seaway below the lows of Tony 18 forming a potential bottom here and then starting the next major uptrend tours 50,000 and as I mentioned before, guys, there is an extreme scenario as well. And the extreme scenario that be wave may actually go as far back as the previous highs at made in 2017 so in the extreme situation, the correction or the BV or Bear Market Rally, whatever you want to call it, could actually go as far high as the nineteen thousand twenty thousand levels before finally topping out there and starting the major move towards the previous lows of made of wave a near the 300 levels and then starting a major uptrend towards the thirty thousand fifty thousand and potentially much higher levels.
So these are the two potential scenarios we're dealing with. If bitcoin has not actually bottomed, now I know what you're probably thinking. You may be asking yourself right now, well, how can we know with a degree of probability what we're dealing with bitcoin right now is actually a Byu or bear market rally. How can we distinguish this from actually a bull market? Now let me say, I'm going to do a separate video on that. So in a separate video, which I'll publish for you very soon, I'm going to give you my final verdict on what's potentially happening on bitcoin. So we'll go through the potential possibilities, whether it's a bull market or a bear market rally in a separate video. But for the meantime, let me just leave you with this one thought on this chart. I put a line here, as you can see here, this blue line, that's a 21 weekly moving average.
That is a level we need to pay attention to because as you just saw previously and I showed you on the previous chart in the last major bull market rally in Bitcoin, bitcoin came back and tested the 21 moving average several times. Bitcoin didn't just keep going up forever. No, it came back down, tested at 21 moving average over and over again. So guys, that's why we need to pay attention now to this 21 moving average. If this is a healthy bull market. Okay, if this is actually a healthy and measured wool market, well we need this in the next few weeks is some kind of a retracement to the 21 moving average. Something that brings bitcoin down to test the 21 moving average testing this level and then moving higher again like we saw in the previous bull market. And in fact in every major bull markets usually see the market's coming back down, testing, moving averages, then going back up again.
But here's the thing, if bitcoin does not make a retracement and just continues to plow higher, just continues to push higher and higher than you know what guys? There's something not quite right with this market. The problem with Bitcoin may actually be that it's actually too bullish, extremely bullish, which is one of the actual signs or signifiers of a wave or a bear market rally. Therefore, guys, if this is a healthy bull market, we need to see bitcoin at the end of the day. Coming back down to test is 21 moving average. The Blue Line you see here touching or testing of 21 moving average and then moving higher. Again, if that happens, then it's more likely to be a bull market and indeed the potential uptrend. However, that means there's two. If bitcoin makes a retracement at some point and eventually goes below. If bitcoin goes below that 21 weekly average, then we need to be very cautious because if bitcoin moves below, it's 21 weekly average, that's actually is a very important signifier and a potential clue that we're dealing with a B wave and indeed the start of a major sea wave correction in bitcoin. Now, I'll go on cover this for you again in a separate video and a final verdict video soon. And by the way, guys, if this video has helped, please give it a thumbs up and please subscribe for future videos. Thanks a lot. Bye for now.