The next big Bitcoin move in a 4 year cycle
And at this rate, we'll be approaching the third anniversary of this series in a couple of months. It's been a few months since the last video. I think almost two months, of course, a lot has occurred since then. And we've got a lot to cover today. I polled followers on Twitter for questions that they may have on this journey. And essentially they came down to the standard kind of questions that have always been asked of in the past, which is essentially where we are in the four year journey. A new question that's come up, which I find pretty interesting is the question of, have we already topped in this cycle?
Have we seen the bull market top? And of course the model portfolio, when to take action, what are the targets? We'll cover the idea of all coins very briefly. And then I'll briefly go into a Supercycle and lengthening cycles discussion is that seems to come up often as well. Before I get into the charts, I have marked the first item here as sanity check. Cause I just want to talk very briefly along some of the themes I've shared in the past around risk management and just perception, um, views and how we approach the markets in general. You know, and it's just very important for you to understand that this journey has been more about a guide and not about prediction. Okay. It's great. When a prediction comes through or your view comes through, and I have a lot of confidence in my own work, but I don't believe it in an absolute manner, meaning that I'm very capable of quickly identifying where the primary view on my work is no longer accurate or correct.
it's been a couple of months since the last video a lot has changed we've had some decent declines of late we've had um obviously um some new entrants into the space like elon musk and there's been quite a bit of hype around the action of late so there's a little bit here to cover but at the same time I hope and this sounds counterintuitive but i hope for the longer term followers of this journey that you don't necessarily find out anything new because the entire strategy has been based on the idea that investing is all about having conviction getting in early and staying the course and ignoring the noise around the uh the cycle and we've had it.
Certainly had a lot of noise and a lot of what i'm going to talk about today I think fits into that category so i hope by this point in the journey two plus years’ in that you do see a lot of what's going on in this space as just noise on the way towards our goal and that goal has been clearly stated from the beginning and i still feel that we're on that path so today in this video i'm going to cover as i always do where we stand in the four-year cycle.
Where we are today where i think we're going what i think may have changed since some of the earlier videos then of course as i always do as well I just want to talk a little bit more about the emotional side the psychology side because that's where the game is going to be won or lost it's going to be won or lost in your own head how you interpret the news cycle the thud and everything else that's going on in relation to your own position that's really where the battle is and that's where the battle needs to be won.
I'm also going to talk about the super or hype cycle that all of a sudden is the latest and hottest craze in the bitcoin space i'm going to talk about the institutional phase of this four year cycle i'm also going to touch on very briefly about just in general other risks like a you know the covert re-emergence or the bonds bond rates that are going up the u.s dollar supposedly uh crashing inflation stock market crash and so on i'm going to touch on getting out and selling because we are i believe getting closer at least to that point or potentially to that point and this is a question that keeps coming up so this is something i need to address and then i'll just very briefly touch on what i think happens after this four year cycle it is too early in my opinion to begin worrying about the next cycle we need to worry about this cycle but of course i'll just touch on that real briefly and i'll close with some final thoughts that's the agenda for today so let's get stuck into it.
Active versus passive investing. Which one is good for you, and why it suits you?
Today, we're going to talk about active versus passive investing.
This is a presentation that I put together a few months ago for a course that I wanted to teach. Unfortunately, plans kind of fell through for that course, but I didn't want to put all of the hard work that I had for this particular presentation to waste. So I figured I'd upload it here for all of you with a little bit of commentary, and hopefully, you learn something at the end of this, because this isn't just like a basic lecture that doesn't have any data or real-world examples, et cetera.
It's going to show you a little bit of the data that goes behind the active versus passive investing argument along with of course definitions. If you're not familiar with what that argument is in the first place. So before we get started here, let's very quickly define active investing and very quickly define passive investing.
Active investing is where you go out into the world and try to pick individual stocks that you believe are going to outperform the market.
The market is defined as an index or a basket of stocks that are representative of the entire economy. So S&P 500 is an example of a market index. The Dow Jones is an example of a market index. The footsie 100 is an example of a market index. So basically what you're looking at here is active investing is where investors put a lot of time into researching stocks and researching stock sectors to try to identify outliers that are going to generate a higher return for them relative to the risk that they take.
Passive investors. On the other hand, believe that there is no way for you to beat the market.
And as a result of that, they simply invest in the market itself. So they buy the S&P 500. They buy the Dow Jones, they buy the footsie 100, so on and so forth. So there's your basic explanation of the difference versus active versus passive.
Now we're going to go into more detail.
How to HOLD Bitcoin in 2020, and what targets we could hit this year? How to earn life-changing profits from Bitcoin HODL and how do not chase price movement in a drastic volatile BTC market.
It's good to be back. It's been a been a month since the last video, actually just slightly over one month and not a whole lot to talk about in terms of price changes since that last video. But I think, um, this is a prudent time to talk about the outlook for 2020. What lies ahead. Some of the possibilities. Also take a quick look back at where we've come from. Take a review so to speak of the um, you know, the path so far that Bitcoin's taken in 2019. How that relates to the initial, uh, kind of idea that I presented with the four year cycle back, um, about a year ago now. In fact on YouTube. And I want to cover that and also cover some member questions that pop up. In particular. We have three or four questions that seem to come up more frequently than everything else and those are on the agenda here. Most importantly, the idea that, um, uh, we've got these cycle set up potentially getting longer. I want to talk about the myth of of lengthening cycles and then talk about a little bit about buying coins and why I think that's a bad idea going forward. Talk very briefly about the stock to flow ratio. Talk about the Bitcoin having then some closing points that I want to cover. So it's going to be a pretty jam packed video. Don't know how long ago for a bare with me and I'm glad you're here. Let's go.
Okay. As always, just want to quickly mention that I'm not a registered broker or advisor. This is not financial advice. What I tried to do is just give you some insight into my thinking and my process, how I'm approaching this asset class, how I'm approaching this market. Um, there's a good chance that I will be wrong. That's just the nature of trading and investing and speculating as well. So you need to be mindful of that. There is not one person on this planet that knows what's going to happen, let alone in crypto or anything else. We try and use the information ahead to provide us with an edge and we try and mitigate any risk around that. And that's kind of what I'm trying to do here. And I try and point out, um, a champion in all aspects of investing and trading and how I approach this market.
When to short stock market and when to buy Bitcoin
In this particular video, we're going to talk about an important signal, potentially important cell signal that could get triggered on the stock market very soon, if not potentially today or tomorrow from really from about here.
So I've been short in the stock market really from this region. As you can see here currently sitting in about a 2,600 pounds profit. Just let me know, I only risked about 300 pounds when I began the straight, so that's a better risk reward if nine to one which is not bad at all. And by the way, in our member videos, I've been calling for a stock market drop. Really from about here. Again from this stock market was about here, I've been warning about a potential drop in the stock market. So we've been ready for this for some time. The bottom line is that now we've had this drop.
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