The next big Bitcoin move in a 4 year cycle

And at this rate, we'll be approaching the third anniversary of this series in a couple of months. It's been a few months since the last video. I think almost two months, of course, a lot has occurred since then. And we've got a lot to cover today. I polled followers on Twitter for questions that they may have on this journey. And essentially they came down to the standard kind of questions that have always been asked of in the past, which is essentially where we are in the four year journey. A new question that's come up, which I find pretty interesting is the question of, have we already topped in this cycle?
Have we seen the bull market top? And of course the model portfolio, when to take action, what are the targets? We'll cover the idea of all coins very briefly. And then I'll briefly go into a Supercycle and lengthening cycles discussion is that seems to come up often as well. Before I get into the charts, I have marked the first item here as sanity check. Cause I just want to talk very briefly along some of the themes I've shared in the past around risk management and just perception, um, views and how we approach the markets in general. You know, and it's just very important for you to understand that this journey has been more about a guide and not about prediction. Okay. It's great. When a prediction comes through or your view comes through, and I have a lot of confidence in my own work, but I don't believe it in an absolute manner, meaning that I'm very capable of quickly identifying where the primary view on my work is no longer accurate or correct.

 


And I'm quick to adapt and to change my allocations based on what I think is the most well, the new most likely path forward. And that's important because we need to be adaptive markets change daily, hourly, weekly, monthly, any timeframe you can think about it. There are almost an infinite amount of variables and decision points that go into the progression of an asset class and that's price over time and information that we had in 2018 may or may not be applicable. Okay. The four year cycle basically states that over a four year period, we're going to get this bear market to bear markets rotation. Okay. And that's something that this asset class I believe follows, but generally what happens in between is very much a fluid process of fluid process that will over time react negatively and positively in sometimes very volatile and very extreme matters.
And we've seen that in this four year cycle in itself. So it's just very important to have that understanding when you approach a market like this, to be adaptive to the changes as they come along. So I just want to make it clear again that you know, I'm not, not sure Domus, I don't pretend to have all the answers. All I have that I can say with confidence is I have experience over a pretty long period of time trading markets, investing in markets, looking at cycles. And I'm using that to what I believe will be an edge, but not a guarantee, not something that I can say. And I have never said from the beginning that this is the path that must be taken. And that's important again, for the reasons I outlined earlier. So we need to be flexible and adaptive and to respond, to changes in the market structures.

And I'll talk a little bit about that over the four year cycle. But if you do recall, I had some people say to me, well, you know, has, has the four year outlook necessarily changed or has it been invalidated or anything like that? And the answer is simply is no, because if you go back to the very first video, I presented a couple of scenarios and back then Bitcoin was at 35 or $3,800. And we will beginning or about to begin the next four year cycle. And I pretty much said, this is how I believe it should roughly unfold based on prior cycles, based on a secular bull market, based on a young, um, uh, rapidly growing network. But I also outlined possibilities where it just may not unfollow like that, where we may not even make a new all time high back then when it was at 4,000 and those were scenarios I was willing to accept.
And I modeled my portfolio around that. I was confident that a bear market low was just about in play and I could have easily said, well, if I'm that confident, I'll put in a hundred percent of my net worth or 80% of my net worth. But I didn't because I knew just back then, like I know today or last year that there's risks associated with investing in every, in any asset class. And therefore my allocation represented what I understood the risks to be. And of course, none of these thoughts are knew nothing here is that I'm presenting is not something I've not repeated many, many times over the series in this video, but I feel that it's important to keep outlining, um, that framework when we look at charts and we'll look at possibilities because once we start looking at charts and we start projecting where we believe the cycle may go, it tends to lead to a lot of excitement and a lot of emotional response where the thought process begins to go towards how much money you could be making or will be making.
And the idea of where we could be wrong or allocations and risk begin to be ignored. So I want to start with the video with that idea. So let's go into the four year outlook from a chart perspective, all right, starting to look from a quarterly perspective, each bar representing three months. And my first initial takeaway is that the secular the 10 year or the, um, the, the price action of, uh, essentially the entire life cycle of Bitcoin remains firmly up the trend is firmly up. And I see no break in that with the 10 bar moving average is up and we are comfortably above the 10 bar moving average. So from a secular standpoint, this looks, uh, fairly, fairly controlled. And if anything, the most recent pullback is essentially just reverting back to the rising mean right here. Um, when we scroll down and zoom in a little bit down to the monthly, okay.
So on the monthly chart here we are now, now taking a look at the candles here we are now 31 months into what obviously should be a roughly 48 month cycle. A cycle of course measured from one low to the next low, where a cycle peaks is, is irrelevant from a measurement of the cycle. The cycle is measured from the low to the low and where the peak occurs is typically influenced by the longer term direction or trend of the asset. So in a secular bull market, you expect the peak of that cycle to occur much closer to the next low, the new word on the other side of that equation. And that's simply because in a rising market over a longer term period, you need to spend more months or more time in a rising manner than you do in a declining meadow. So, so far since Bitcoin's inception, we're seeing right translated cycles where the peak occurs roughly around the three year of a four year cycle followed by a 12 month declining period in the bear market.
And we've seen that in the last two, four years, the cycles at the moment, we have a peak that occurred, heard back in April. And if that would occur, this peak would not fit. At least the prior two cycles. And two cycles is obviously not a large enough sample size to have extreme confidence in, but when you look at Bitcoin from a market cap perspective, you look at Bitcoin from an adoption standpoint and the growth standpoint it does to me appear that at top, this point in the cycle of a four year cycle would be premature and will not fit. At least my understanding or expectations of where the cycle should look should peak. And that peak from a price perspective would only be around about three times the prior peak in 2017, meaning from a peak back four years ago, a price will only be up three X for an asset class like this seems to me to be premature.
So, so my takeaway from the monthly chart is that we are still respecting at least a 10 month moving average. And the 10 bar normally is a, um, is a moving average. I like to use for respecting a trend. And we pulled well above that 10 bar moving average recently with that run-up courtesy of these six monthly bars. And my belief here in this 55% decline, which if you look at prior cycles is not something we would expect. My belief here is that we overshot at least from an intermediate timeframe perspective overshot, and we are spending both time and price retracing back to a level that we can reaccumulated from and continue the four year cycle.
But I think that's changed a little bit. That's changed the dynamics of the cycle somewhat because I think from a top view perspective and where we think this cycle might top, may top, um, in the past, obviously I've shared the idea that the December timeframe looks more likely and that's simply because the prior two cycles went three years up when you're down. So the natural, at least best guests or expectation would have been to suggest that by the end of the year, around that period, that's where we'll see somewhat of a blow off top occur. But I think with this consolidation and the need to probably reaccumulated for a number more months, I think we need to move the window and the window in a cycle, the top, the window timing window is very fluid and there will come a time and I'll cover this shortly in the future where I believe a four year cycle cycle will not spend three years rising and may spend only one year and may spend three years declining.
And that's what L left translated cycle is. So the peak can occur left of the mid point or right at the mid point, depending on where the longer term trend is going. So while the trend is higher, we expect the peak to occur much deeper into the four year cycle. So for that reason, I believe now that probably the earliest we can be looking for is December and more likely to be now at some point in the first half of 2022. And some people were like, well, give me an absolute date, give me, you know, give me something more concrete. And the simple answer is, as I said in the beginning, we just don't know we need to be adaptive and fluid with these expectations. The only thing I have a lot more confidence in is where these peaks, where these bear market declines, these Savage bear market declines occur.
And I believe still that at the end of next year, there will be some significant selling into what will be a four year bear market cycle low. But up until that point and getting to the peak of this current four year cycle is something that we will adapt with. So my view here is that that window now is at the earliest December more likely to be probably January, February, and may go as far as July. So the next question becomes, well, how, how can you have a July peak for example, and then just a six month bear market? Well, again, if we, if we are restricted in our views of what a cycle my cycle may look like and think that it could be a year down, well, then we start to really, um, restrict the possible outcomes that we're willing to accept. And that's not something we want to do with cycles.
We want to be flexible with that. And the reason why we may only get a short, but very significant bear market decline, possibly just six months, um, is that one Bitcoin can easily over a very short period of time, essentially give up significant ground. And by significant, I mean, 60, 70, 80%, you can see it basically in this one candle, this is a 55% monthly decline. Uh, maybe let's call it two month decline from the peak in April to the lows at the end of may. And if you have six months worth, then you could easily see how we could see a 70% or even 85% as we did at last cycle decline over just a short period of time. But the main reason why I think that could occur. And this goes, I think a little bit towards the lengthening cycles argument, and for all of you out there, I will be having another collaboration this week with Benjamin Cohen on cycles in general and, and my views and, and, and sharing a discussion on his views.
Um, I believe what we're setting up for is a blow off sort of a double blow off move. And I, and I've shared this almost from probably one of the earlier videos back in 2019, where I believe the next cycle is more likely to occur, left translate it. And I think that goes firmly against some of the other folks out there with, with certain models that are based on supply assurance, for example. But I believe if we look at examples from, from technology and other asset classes over a longer period of time, over a longer cycle, and I'm calling it a 16 year cycle, which is a common, uh, timeframe cycle in other asset classes as well. So four times four year cycles, I think we need, or we could see a period and a period of multi-year consolidation and declines, and those aren't necessarily bad for Bitcoin or crypto in general.
Um, it's just a reflection of the, or the need for an asset class over a longer period of time. Once it obtains a much wider adoption and much wider distribution and price has other shot sort of, you know, some underlying value or at least value in today, time, uh, in Nisha's longer period of time to consolidate, but those are periods. There's a good periods of, of rebuilding or building further layers and, and getting much deeper into the technology. Um, so I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but I believe we could be looking for a situation where we have a peak up and again, numbers and throwing our targets. I know a lot of people like to hit targets, but for me, they're mostly irrelevant. I be looking for time peaks, you know, a peak in a certain time window, then looking at shorter timeframe indicators too, and also a sentiment in general.
So what are people talking about? What crazy stories at eight concocting at certain points. And if we get up to the 150 and $200,000 range, which I think we can get to, then I'm looking for narratives, like it's, you know, it's going to be a Supercycle to a million just don't sell right now. It could be a million by the end of next year or something like that. And those types of cues I'll be taking for when I would be looking to possibly exit out of the market, or at least take profit, or at least do some sh some hedging, whatever the response will be. I will be looking to sell down my position up in that area. And some people also ask, well, how can you sell Bitcoin for, for fear or dollars? Well, you know, over a shorter period of time, um, it's okay to be in another asset class.
If that asset class is going to outperform and the dollar could easily outperform Bitcoin just as it did in the bear market in 19, sorry, in 18 and periods before that, that, uh, you know, that decline that Bitcoin declined 85% versus the dollar. So do I really care if inflation that's 6% or 8%? I don't, I want to be able to protect what I've been able to achieve if it gets to that at that point, because I want to be able to buy more Bitcoin in the end. You know, I want to be able to come out of this with, um, being able to at the end of the next bear market, big out a buyback in, and for example, using the model portfolio as just one example, um, you know, if we bought 25 Bitcoin for the model, you know, I'd like to be able to get 400 Bitcoin for every 25 I put in at the next bear market low, if it can be executed correctly and it's not going to be perfect.
I mean, nobody gets it perfect, but that's been the whole point of this journey from the beginning is being able to stay the course over a four year cycle. The hardest part was getting in at the very bottom and being able to buy a couple more times at significant capitulation points in the cycle. And as I've been trying to help you with this, this entire period in the emotional journey and the emotional, um, what it takes from an emotional perspective, to be able to weather the volatility and the ups and downs to the eventual point where the four year cycle peaks. So I see a situation where we can get to that point and we can possibly sharply decline and then go for a final, more impulse, like run to a absolute bubble peak, a bubble peak say into the end of 2023, possibly into 2024, followed by a bear market that may be spurred on by some significant worldwide coordinated regulation against crypto in general, uh, an attempt by the powers to be, to really put, you know, put a stop or to, um, slow down the, uh, the mass encroachment that Bitcoin and crypto in general is on traditional finance and traditional power structures.
And there will be an, and I've shared this with you before, and you're already seeing the rumblings of this. There is fear from traditional sources on the growth of Bitcoin and crypto in general, and therefore there'll need to be a natural response from, from, from those groups, um, in order to try and get ahead of it. I think it's a few times attempt in the long run, but in the short run, don't underestimate their ability to really put a, put the brakes on this for some period of time. And then the industry as a whole will have to come to a middle ground, perhaps meet some regulation, fight some regulation, um, you know, invent and code around some regulation or with regulation, for example. So I see that coming in the future, uh, again, the further out you go, the harder it is to accurately, um, to have a good look and, and be right on some of this.
But I think, um, to expect that there won't be some type of significant attempt to, um, you know, to stop crypto in general, I think is, um, is not very, not a very sound, uh, approach. So I see that coming and this is where again, I think you get, so there's some idea of a lengthening cycle in my interpretation of a lengthening cycle, if we consider this. And if you look at this, if we go up to say, just throwing a number of 200 and back down to 60 and up to let's call it 600 or 500, um, in the end, this will look like the peak, and this will look like the peak and this, this peak here will look more like just a retracement up to that. So, uh, in my view, and in my work, these are part of these two peaks are part of two different cycles that spurs on the next bear market.
And if we get something like this, I think we may be in a situation where we may not see another high for the rest of the decade, because by the time you get to the next low, which actually would be around the 20, 27, 20, 28 timeframe, it could take a good two years to that having, um, to be able to climb out and reach an all time high again. So it may not be until 20 30, 20 31, after that peak where you then get another new, all time high. Again, these are ideas and they're not actionable necessarily today. What's actionable is the portfolio that we have in front of us and how we execute on that over the remaining months and possibly year and a half or two years into the next expected cycle low, which brings us to the question I think was asked almost the most, if not the second most in the comments and that is, did we already see a top?
And I liked that so many people have asked this because it just, it just goes to the amount of fear that is out there. And of course, some of that is warranted. We did go down 55%. Um, I think a lot of people missed the boat on that run from 20 or 10,000 to 60,000. It occurred so quickly. I think a lot of people were kind of waiting. I'm waiting to get their full allocation. I'm hoping members or followers at least of the four year journey. Uh, we're not in that, that boat. Um, I think we've been positioned now for a very long time, and I think a lot of things also had a lot riding on this and have a lot riding on this. And from a paper profit perspective, we're looking at how much they had, how much, what the nominal value of their Bitcoin holding was at 60 and 65,000.
And now look at it and think while I'm down 30% on that 40%. And if I, you know, what, if this is the top and what if we ride this all the way back down, I've lost all that open profit. And I know a lot of people bought on the way up because they, they fear they didn't have enough. So they added an added more at 40 and 45, 50 and 60,000 something I've been saying from the very beginning, you don't want to be doing, you don't want to be adding above the $20,000 level. You want to get those positions early and get the core holding that you can comfortably ride to the four year cycle top. Because if you keep averaging your position up one, your position grows relative to your net worth to a point that makes it difficult to sleep comfortably because you've got so much riding on it.
Two, you start really averaging up that cost. And when you see a 45, 50% decline like we did, there are many situations I know of where folks have been involved, involved with this from the bear market lows, but have a position that is just slightly profitable, for example, and not up the 12, you know, 1200 or 1300% that the model portfolio is up because they thought they had enough. And then it went up to 60,000 and thought, geez, if I, if I had everything in it, you know, I would, yeah, I can, I can retire and, and, and, and buy the most expensive beach front home. So, but let me not make that mistake again, let me buy at 60 now with everything, because it's gone with the 200, and that's, that's just the definition of a, of a, of a market that has gone too far ahead of itself.
And that's hyper response is a, is a hallmark of a, of a market like that. It induces you to make emotional decisions you wouldn't normally make, but at the time they seemed like they were rational to you. So I like the fact that so many are asking, did we already talk, because it's just, it just goes to the amount of fear that is out there at the moment in this market, looking at a weekly chart. And I named this video, the last hurdle, because going to what I said earlier, we don't know, we don't have all the answers. I don't have all the answers. And there is a probability high enough for me to acknowledge that there is a chance that the market, the four year cycle did top. And I talked about that in the last video, but it's not my primary view by any means.
I give it something like you've had to give it a percent, maybe a 15 or 20% chance, which is it's a reasonable chance, but there is a chance that the market topped in this area and therefore this first initial decline was that that first dropped from a top. And then this is that impulse countertrend move up three quarters of the way to the highs, call the bull trap in this area before continuation in a bear market, there is that chance, but I don't think that's what we're seeing. And if we do get a drop down from this point, and we start to make a test towards the $30,000 level, then I personally will be removed, reducing a significant amount of my exposure at that $28,000 level. At this point, I don't see at this point in the four year cycle where we are in the depth of the cycle, I don't see why we should be heading back to test 30,000 and we shouldn't be gone below 30,000.
I don't really see a scenario right now, either where we drop sharply down and V all the way up. So I would be protecting my downside, protecting my portfolio with a drop below 28,000. I can't tell you exactly how you will do it. Okay. The most simple answer generally is you sell down some of your position and hopefully if you've been following the journey at 28,000, it's still close to an eight times return on your portfolio. Now I can appreciate not everybody's in, at that level at different levels, but I'm hoping you're in at reasonable levels. So for me, it would be a combination of selling down some position, but mostly also hedging through some derivatives, for example, and that's, that's a topic that's not really, uh, well good for this video series. I'm not a financial advisor. I can't tell you how you would do that, but I'm letting you know that from a model standpoint, I will simply be selling down a decent amount of that portfolio at 28,000.
So that's the downside possibility. Again, it's a real possibility, and I'm going to flip over to a daily. I don't like to show the daily chart on these series, but, um, essentially I also think that this August 3rd low of around about 37,600 should really hold over the next month or so on the way up. Um, we do have a significant cycle low, a 60 day cycle low. So just like there's a 16 year cycle and there's four, four year cycles. There are 60 days cycles within a four year cycle, and this is going to be a test. This is the final hurdle coming up. I believe in September where that cycle low, if it can stay comfortably above the two prior 60 day cycle lows, the one in may and the one in July, then it completes what I believe is a, uh, a bottom and shows a reversal of the decline that began in April.
That would mean a high. We already have a higher high here's the peak of the last 60 day cycle on June 15th, we already have a higher high, a higher, low in the September 60 day timeframe puts us at a higher, low as well. And that is essentially the type of confirmation we're looking for to confirm the resumption of a bull trend further to that, depending on where this current cycle peaks let's call it just for argument's sake, 50,000 in the next few weeks, what we would want to see coming out of a September law. We want to see a September load that holds well above the prior law. Of course, then we want to see that rally up in October to take out wherever this high occurs. And if that happens, then we have a series of higher highs at the 60 day cycle timeframe. And in my opinion, a firm resumption of the primary bull trend, something like this. So a 60 day cycle low will shake out. I believe a decline over the next sort of month, depending on whenever that begins. It could be next week, the week after we don't know. Um, and then a reversal. And I take out of this high, that forms puts us on a path then over just probably 360 day cycles to what could be the four year cycle peak in the early portion of 2022.
So this is still my primary view, my preferred view. Um, I don't want to be shaken out of that view. I like to be confident in my view, but again, I have a plan for where that view is not correct. Um, and that's why I said, there's a downside hedge. There is a downside level where I don't want to be involved. I don't want to have all that exposure out there. I want to bank more of that profit. It won't be anything like the profit that I had hoped for or expected, but, um, it would be significant, none the least, because why would I want to do that? Well? And some people would say, well, yeah, but Bitcoin's going to be at 300 or 400 within the next few years. That's great. If you are a pure Huddler, that's great. You probably already went through an 85% decline in the last bit market and you've come out shining.
And that strategy is okay. If your strategy is 10 years, I'm not going to touch this. Then in some respects, really these videos aren't for you anyway, okay. These videos are for folks who want to huddle, but also take advantage of the major events that occur within a four year cycle. So I would get out because I see the possibility of at least 20,000, but I can't rule out certain other key levels, like say 13 to 14,000, or maybe all the way down to 10,000. And that seems absolutely extreme. But when Bitcoin was at 10,000, only 11 months ago, getting to 60,000 over a few months seemed extremely extreme. And it was only a year. And here it is here in March, it's only been a year and four months or five months when Bitcoin was down at 3,500. So things happen very quickly in this space.
And I just don't want to be caught in a position where I can't get out. And I think that happens to a lot of people in the last bear market. And I don't want to rhyme a position down. Yes, at 30,000, it's going to be down 55%. And that's, that's just part of investing when you don't get your upside expectation. It's very difficult to get out because some could have made the argument where you could have gotten out at, at 50,055. But I didn't want to, because I had already taken some profit in my initial investment, 28 for the sole purpose of looking for a massive blow off top, that was seven X, 10 X, 15 X in the last bull market. And if we're going to end up with just the three X, then that's not something that is easy to plan for to get out because getting out at that higher level here could have easily seen the market continue up and leave everybody behind the same kind of thinking on the downside.
You don't want to get caught in a situation where the market drops and you're stuck with your full allocation, especially if you've averaged up and you're just riding it and riding it lower. And it gets to the point, if it drops below 20, where it becomes so painful that you capitulate, and that happens way more than you believe if it hasn't happened to too many of you already, and you don't want to be riding a position to the depths of a decline and capitulate at the very worst time, you want to remove that possibility by just acknowledging that the market's breaking down, it's broken, broke, breaking down over a longer period of time. And I want to protect at least what I have in the market. So that's how I'm approaching the downside scenario. I'm always focused on risk. I'm a risk manager first, and then whenever I enter into any trade or any investment, always my first question is, okay, this is great.
This sounds great, right? The numbers look good, whether it's a balance sheet or a profit and loss statement, or it's a business idea or a chart, but I always say, okay, where are these assumptions wrong? Where could they be wrong? And what could be the impact? And this is what I'm doing here. This is what I've done throughout the journey. So I'm always focused on risk. But then on the flip side, I'm also focused on seeing out my thesis and seeing out my dream. And my thesis has been a four year cycle blow off peak towards the end of this year, where the top of this four year cycle. And I just don't want to be looking back in the future and seeing Bitcoin gets to a blow off peak and look back and say, man, I got shaken out because everybody said there was a bull trap back here and it just went right, because it's so close now to the timing band for the four year cycle.
We don't know what type of behavior we get out of this. Whether we get a rocket out, just keeps on going, or whether we consolidate first, it can take any multiple paths, but I don't want to be out scared. And then not being able to buy back in. I prefer to have an invalidation point on the thesis and then yes, take more of a loss. We'll take less profit. Actually, there is a better terminology, take a less profit, but be in it right now. This is telling us right now for very powerful green candles coming off a decline that is a very classic looking reversal pattern in my mind. And that's getting people both excited and fearful. Again, a shake out into September low makes sense to me as well. And then I move up. So as I've been saying all along, I want to be in a position where I can sleep comfortably at night, I've covered my investment and I'm just going to say, give me what you got. Bitcoin, can you get to a blow of four year cycle peak? And if you do, I will be there for you and I will be there to take advantage.
So that leads us to the question of model portfolio. When to take action. There's a link to the model portfolio below, and that's just the model. Okay. It's just, it's just designed to replicate the initial performance and the decision points along the way on our $100,000 invested portfolio. Um, and of course, if you invested 10,000 or a million, it's just a ratio to see how it will perform. And I already outlined the act. Some of the actions I've outlined the downside actions. Okay. So 28,000 for me is a key level on the upside. It's a fluid level, especially now after 55% decline, if the boom market resumed, and we begin to make a run to all time highs and exceed all time highs, then I believe the market has built or built up a significant amount of energy where a move of four X five X, six times is very achievable.
And Bitcoin has shown us even in this, in this four year cycle alone, if you look at this weekly chart, it's shown us from the March close to this peak, or even from this consolidation point in October to the peak, or if you look at it back in April of 19 to June, these are just short bursts. And even to the downside, you get similar action. These here from 3000 to 14,000 of four or five X, and from 10 to 60, a six X from the all-time high level, obviously a six X is a very big number. Even a six X from this number from here is a very big number. So you only need a three X from the all time highest to get us towards that $200,000 level. So those numbers are very achievable. If, and again, I use, if we can get on a resumption of this bull trend, so it's fluid, I will be looking to the best of my ability if we, if that scenario unfolds looking for the key indicators of where peak may occur and I'll probably be early or maybe slightly late, but if we get a blow off like that, I'll be looking to take maximum profit, probably holding a small core allocation of the portfolio to provide some insurance against a, uh, a move that just really just blows everybody's mind away.
And, um, I don't believe that's going to be the case. I don't believe in that, but again, Bitcoin has, um, at least taught me to appreciate that the outlier moves in this industry, uh, significant, significantly wider. Um, the standard deviations are significantly, uh, more extreme in this, in, in, in, in, in, in, in this industry. And I want to be at least positioned to be able to take advantage of that in that event. So there'll be a small holding of the, of the, of the portfolio that sort of always remains invested. And personally, I may, you know, I may do something like even hedge that holding, um, on what I can sell to be a blow off top, but essentially I think let's first confirm that we're not in the bull trap. Let's see the next 60 days cycle. We'll have a chance. I'll do another video before then obviously, uh, and I'm hoping the next video will be, we cleared that hurdle and now we're off to the final run.
Um, and so we'll get a chance to at least have a deeper thing into where some of those targets might be. But again, it's more about the time and the sentiment around where Bitcoin will be at a certain point and not some arbitrary or nominal kind of number up in this area. I don't like playing those fractural games where you sort of say, you know, prior cycle did this prior cycle did that. It's diminished by X amount and so on. That is just at least not, uh, how I, uh, focus my framework at all. So that will be the key to, um, identifying when to take action in the portfolio. Uh, all coins come up a lot and I've resisted talk, talking about all coins for out the entire series, because this is a Bitcoin series, but let's just be Frank. Of course, I hold some alt coins, a theorem being easily, my second largest position.
Um, but you know, in general, Bitcoin is, you know, is the sun and the all coins are the satellites. And they revolve around the Bitcoin cycle. At least they do for now and for this time and where we are today, that may not be the case in the future. I don't know, but for now, uh, if the four year cycle is on then many good luck picking a winner, okay, everybody thinks they can pick the winner. It's very difficult to do, but many of the all coins will outperform Bitcoin. There's no doubt about that. We know that as fact, and many of them will not perform at least on a Bitcoin ratio standpoint. So I don't want to get into all coins because again, it's a Bitcoin journey. It's a huddle journey. And if you I'm sure most of you, or many of you are dabbling or trading or, or have significant amounts in all coins, I'm not going to get into the game of which one's going to win and which one's not, I don't think many of us really know, um, many of you read glossy websites and very well-constructed white papers and are influenced by key members of the community, whether it's on social media or not.
And I think we are fooling ourselves a lot in believing some of the narratives that are out there. So again, some will do well. Some will actually have real world adoption and real world use cases that will do fantastically well. And good luck if you've got one of those, if you find one of those, um, but in the end, let me tell you a bear market is a perfect mechanism for revealing just what is junk and what is real. They will all go down, but you'll see if you're holding anything remotely, um, remotely chunk, like it's, it's really, really going to suffer. Like we saw in the last bear market. There were most, all coins, at least went down 90%, but the really bad ones went down 95, 98, and many of them are back. And that is not because of the project it's because of speculation in general.
So just be aware of that. And then lastly, Supercycle lengthening cycles, Supercycle, you know, I don't know exactly what that means. What does that mean? Does that mean a realization from, from all corners of the globe that they need to be in Bitcoin and in this hyper big organization? And it goes to a million, if that's what that means, I don't see it happening in that manner. Um, again, I will have a small allocation in case something ridiculous happens. You know, again, I don't have the answers, I just have my experience to fall on and, and, and what I've seen, but I haven't seen everything. And I haven't, I I'm of course, Bitcoin and crypto in general is such a new thing that there are a lot of things we ha nobody has seen that will surprise us. So I don't know exactly about the Supercycle idea.
I do like the idea of two peaks into the next two cycles. The two, four year cycles are outlined getting us to a very big number that may look like a Supercycle 400, 4 5500. Who knows, is that a Supercycle then that can happen. I'm not big again on upside targets and then lengthening cycles. I think there's a lot of discussion on this. There's a lot of people out there who have different views on what a cycle is in general. I think the term is far too broad and my work and my research on some pioneers in the space going back many, many decades for me, again, the cycle is not about where the blow off occurs because blow offs and tops. I mean, there's going to be a point where Bitcoin is not going to be going through blow off. So at least not this hype that we're accustomed to seeing, once it reaches some type of saturation or some type of maturity, the cycles are gonna really, um, construct quite a bit.
And you're not going to see these massive, massive 80, 90% moves. And, and, and the, and the level of volatility that we see today. So for me, a lengthening cycle could mean the same thing. Some other people are saying, uh, if, if, if the next four year cycle peaks in 2014, again, is that a lengthening cycle? It's not in the way that I look at it. I'm focused on the next bear market. That's the cycle, as far as I'm concerned, that's the one that I'm looking for. So in closing here on this video, I think all I can say is go over and watch a lot of the old videos. I mean, I put a lot of effort into the emotional perspective of investing. I think that is the one area of trading and investing in general, that is underserved. That is the most important.
And it's not about getting it right, and getting every move, correct. It is about the action and the events, you know, the actions you take during the extreme moments. And those are the ones that are not easy to plan for. And they certainly can't occur at that time. So when you've got extreme events occurring, if you're not prepared both with a plan, but also mentally that's where the errors and the mistakes occur. If you look at, and if you ask anybody, if you do a poll, what was the one thing you did incorrectly? What was the one biggest mistake in crypto over the last few years, they're all going to correspond to a major volatile event in the space. And it's going to be the, something like the run up to 60,000 or massive surge. Well, what's going to be a capitulation event. Most likely in general, it's going to be either one of those.
And that's the, the fear side and the fear of missing outside. And those are when emotions and the pulse rate is at its highest that the, the mind is clouded. So just go back and just try and really listen to some of the thoughts around core holdings, discipline, and emotion. I think those, those ideas are going to be serving you best in the future. And we just now need to look forward to see how this cycle unfolds and be responsive and adaptive as best as possible. Thank you very much, everybody. I do appreciate you. I'm following and listening. I hope it's been helpful and I wish you all the very best.

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