What are the real reason the Bitcoin market moves?
In this video, I'm going to talk to you what's happening here in the bitcoin market as a continues to surge higher as you can see here. In fact, in just a few moments when they played this hilarious clip, the financial news media cannot believe what's happening. By the way. Now, if you've been watching my recent videos, you'll know that we'd been expecting this move on bitcoin. In fact, the last video I put out there, I said that bitcoin short sellers are more likely to get slaughtered and that we're going to see further upward pressure in bitcoin. Now, in this video, I want to tell you about an important mistake which many folks out there keep making and I want to make sure you don't make it. You see, you guys just met a few weeks ago when bitcoin was at these lows down here. Do you know what the financial news media were telling people?
Let me play this clip, but there's more blood to come. It's calling a 62 percent chance of a bear market and a bear market means that we're going to test 53, 50 years. The next point, and it's a 62 percent chance of that, so right now my money is on the market continuing to go down and going down to about 50 slash 50, which is the next step, and the time horizon there is in about the next two weeks. So as you can see guys, the title of that video was how low can bitcoin go and many financial experts on news media were saying it's going to go down to the five thousands, but let me tell you what these same people are saying now on financial news media, as you'll see in this particular video posted just very recently this week called the bitcoin breakout. Let me play the clip.
I also hope there's an ETF, but I'm with Bob on this. I think the chances of an etf in 2018 are relatively low. There's still quite a few things, but that doesn't stop speculation on that and that's one reason why we've seen this bottoming process here from 5,800 all the way up here. So the three reasons why you said this bullish breakout could be different or is here to stay. Those are the same three reasons that you could have said five months ago or in December. Why are they more real today versus before when Bitcoin was on the decline? Still? Well, you know, the madness of crowds is something we try to figure out all the time, but I would suggest that five months ago we had some headwinds. Remember we had multiple different bouts of tax selling. We had Mt. Gox trustee selling. There were a lot of big sellers out there that appears to be over and so now you've had this positive news flow and I talked about it when we were at 5,800 shock. I was shocked that people weren't getting it and sometimes it just takes the market a little bit to catch up.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
All right guys. Did you hear that? Did you hear what that lady just said in that video? She was absolutely spot on. When she asked that question, she said, well, those same reasons just pointed out those three reasons you're saying why bitcoin is going up, weren't they there just about over a month ago or three months ago? Absolutely. Those reasons, those so cold reasons that everybody's talking about, one's going up. They were there months before people were aware of them. Traders, we're aware of them. The big investors and financial players were aware of those reasons, so what's changed? Oh, suddenly and magically these reasons as why bitcoin is now surging. This is why guys, I've said this before and I want to say it again. Financial News, media and expert opinion are by far the biggest pile garbage. I would call it much worse. I would call it a turd burglar excuse the expression guys, but it's the biggest pile of nonsense out there, which is why I refuse to listen to them and why would suggest to you to be very cautious of what they financial news media are telling you, and here's why.
There is a psychological bias that many psychologists have talked about that I want to bring to your attention is called the availability bias. Actually, it's called the availability heuristic or bias, and according to Wikipedia, he is how they define it. The availability bias or histic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when you're evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. The availability, heuristic or bias operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled. Subsequently, under the availability heuristic, people tend to heavily weigh their judgment toward more recent information, making new opinions, bias towards that latest news. So guys, here's what you need to remember from this. The availability bias is an irrational assumption that the reasons for why something is happening is already known to us is already available.
That is absolutely not true. Often when we look at the price of why something is happening, why it's going up, why it's going down, the true reasons are not known to us. The availability bias makes us think irrationally that the reason why something is happening is already available to us, that we know what the real reason is. The truth is that we do not know the true reason and actually it doesn't matter. As you probably noticed for my videos, I don't really care what their reason is. The only thing that matters to us and the only thing matters to me and professional traders, we don't care about the news. We don't care about the reasons or causes. All we care about is what the price is doing and what the charts are telling us. One of the best books ever written out there on financial trading is by Nassim Taleb, who is a financial trader.
He's written this book called fooled by randomness. Here's what Nassim Taleb set in this book that often what's financial news networks do is try to pretend to you that they know their reason why something is happening. Ashley, they don't know the reason. In fact, let me show you an example. This is cnbcs website. On the day when stock markets were plunging, notice the headline here. The headline right here says, stock slide. In other words, go down on more trade war worries. Now take a look at the time stamp the date stamp on that article, the 15th of June, 2018. On that same day when they gave this bearish headline on the same day, they had posted a separate article saying the exact opposite. Take a look. Stocks cut losses as a Wall Street shrugs off trade war fears. So when was this posted? This was posted on 15th of June, 2018, the same exact day, two completely opposite articles on the same day.
And the same thing is true by the way, with Bitcoin, just a few days after they posted this video about bitcoin going down to $5,000, they have another expert on saying exact opposite.
It's going to go up. So first of all, let me explain to you why I don't listen to financial news networks and voice a dangerous thing to do to listen to what any of these guys are saying. You have to first appreciate number one, that these financial channels have to fill the air there, 24 hours. They have to fill that airspace with so-called information and the problem is they provide too much information and most of that is not even useful, so that's the reason number one. Reason number two is that most of these financial networks and so called experts are making the same mistakes that psychologists have warned us against, which is the availability bias.
They think a lot of these financial networks think that their reasons are already known, that we know what the reasons are as to why something's going up and what something's going down. But as this newscaster who have to say, she asked a very good question, well, what's so new about this news? You're talking about? This guy over here was giving us three reasons why bitcoin is going up, but as this lady over here to news anchor correctly asked, well, what's so new about this news you're talking about? We already knew this months ago to get the time read a book called the complete turtle trader by Michael Covell. He makes an excellent point in this book, which is the big financial traders out there. Don't care about the reasons or the causes. Here's why you see guys well you have to appreciate is that our brains, our brains are wired through the process of evolution through natural selection to think about cause and effect.
In other words, our brains are naturally wired in such a way that we think of the world in terms of cause and effect. For example, we want to know why something is happening. Why is something going up? This is why a lot of children are very curious. They keep asking why, why this? Why that so you have to appreciate guys that our brains are naturally wired through the process of biology, through the process of evolution that we think of the world only in terms of cause and effect. There has to be a cause for something. There has to be a reason for something and that's why guys, we need to be very careful when we watch financial news networks because they try to pretend that somehow they know their reasons or worse that the reasons are already known to us, but that's not true. Remember the availability bias?
Michael Colville, the author of this fantastic book on the best traders. He says something quite interesting. It says that it's hilarious that we think that some journalist who has gone to journalism school for three years, somehow he knows the real reasons why price or why certain markets going to go up and why a certain markets going down, so what you have to appreciate as a day provide the information for the masses. But as Alexander elder says in one of his books, we don't want information for the masses. We want information for the classes. In other words, the elites. I know that sounds a bit elitist, but what I'm really saying here is that the professional traders, the elites, they don't care about then financial news networks. They don't care about the reasons because we don't know the reasons. Nobody knows what the real reasons are. All we care about is what the price is telling us. And guys, before I finish this video, let me just quickly say this, that remember, please to subscribe to our video so you don't miss the next update.
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