What happens when you do a mistake in trading?

Just want to start off by saying thank you for following. Thank you for the likes and the comments. I do try and reply to many comments. One thing I have noticed in the comments is a lot of positive feedback, which is great, but also the sense that a lot of people are taking my work far too literally in the sense that it's a. it's almost like it's gospel. I just want to warn that, you know, I'm just like everybody else, right? Definitely not nostradamus here or I don't have a crystal ball and it's very important in trading and investing not to fall for 41 narrative or any one style or any one strategy. We're all pretty much susceptible to error, to being wrong and every strategy, every style is essentially just providing a trader if executed correctly with a solid edge. And that's how I view my own work.

 

I view it as something that if I study it and really focus my time and energy, it can provide a good edge for me in my training and my investing, but I never fallen in love with it to the point where I believe my own work is it and nothing else, nothing else could be a. could be, could be fact. Um, so be aware of that, right? I, I'm, I'm wrong on my trades at least 35 percent of the time. So 35 percent of my videos in theory, uh, probably, I mean there may be on the mark, there may be close to being right, but a lot of them will be just be wrong but not wrong from a, the sense that the approach was incorrect. Wrong from purely where I think price might go. And that's perfectly fine in trading and investing. I think if you come into treating, wanting to know in absolute terms where prices heading, you're going to be set up for failure.

That's my number one advice I can give you today is that you need to be very flexible and very patient. You need to have an idea and an opinion, but you need to hold that opinion, be very confident in that opinion, but very hold that opinion very loosely in the sense that you need to know where your attorneys scenarios are, where you're going to be wrong a way you could be wrong and what is it and how is it you're going to approach being wrong when it occurs because I'm going to tell you right now and I know you overall experience this. You're going to be wrong often enough, you know, closer to the 50 percent mark. Then you really want to believe and if you go into a trade or an investment knowing that you're going to be wrong, probably 35 to 40 percent of the time and you don't have a plan for the 35 to 40 percent of the occasions.

 

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Then you're really setting yourself up for some failure and I see on YouTube quite a bit. I've spent some time on YouTube last few weeks. Now that I'm posting some videos and just taking a look at some of the channels. I can tell you little kind of. I'm not too impressed to, to, to say that to say the least with a lot of channels, a lot of people just talking and really absolute terms and I can tell it's because they really want a followers to believe the narrative, but so I, I don't want you to fall into that trap if you're going to watch my videos, be prepared for a lot of these to not turn out the way I think they will. Um, and that's in my book as a trader. Perfectly fine. I've accepted that fact many, many, many years ago that I'm often wrong. And what sets a good trader and investor apart from the average investment trader is that when they are wrong, it's not costing them a lot of money.

It's not costing a lot of capital and I mean a financial capital, but also emotional capital. I don't let a string of bad, well not bad, but a string of incorrect Kohl's one affect my income or my capital. Also emotionally, how I feel about what I'm doing, I just get back to it and get onto the next strategy. If I make a mistake, that's for more from a trading standpoint so we're not putting on the right side, not taking the trade when you need to, not taking profit when you need to, not stopping out when you need to. Things like that. Those types of mistakes can happen in a profitable trade and also in a losing trade. So, um, you know, those are two distinctly different things. We're talking about scenarios where you develop a strategy and it turns out not being right. You just need to have a plan for that.

So one thing I will emphasize in a lot of my videos and I have in the past and I will going forward, I'll give you where I think the market's heading, but it doesn't mean the market's going to go there because perfectly honest with you. If I could predict the market with 80 and 9,100 percent accuracy, I wouldn't be making a video right here. Okay? Um, I, I'm not here to sell you anything from that perspective. I'm just trying to tell you that it's, it's, it's like the law of averages. You really just have to keep baring a higher average and over time that should equate to being more profitable. It's not going to happen in one trade or one theme or one strategy or one bull market. It's a long arduous process that you need to develop within yourself and learn over time that you just have to be consistent and consistently doing the right things and not be so, so hung up on being right, but be a be consistent in your execution and your strategy.

So that being said, I'm going to move on and just kind of cover kind of like what I'm seeing in the 60 day bitcoin cycle. I don't want to give away too much. And the other thing I want to mention is I'm pretty sure you're aware that I have it in my link. I do have a site. I'm not going to pitch it here. It's not my goal a pitcher, but I have to say that I have to respect members of that service and by that meaning I'm not going to tell you current exactly where I'm in and out. That type of thing. I'm not going to share the exact trades, I'm not going to go into extreme deep sort of analysis on, you know, on a lot of this stuff, but I think I'll give you enough where I think it's going to really help. It's going to cover the overview of trading, not just price but a lot of my thoughts on trading.

So the image I have up on the screen right now is from the last video. If you haven't seen that bitcoin 60 day cycle video, please go see that first. It covers what cycles are, how they work, how I see them in bitcoin. I'll post a link right now up on the screen for you to go to that. Go with that first if you haven't otherwise. Right now. This is the image I showed. I think it was around d 40 at the time or you know, so maybe 45 at the time of a 60 day cycle and they're basically saying that we're going to be heading lower

where we stand today. This is the chart as it was last week on YouTube and if I remove that, this is what's happened since. Because it hasn't been straight down, I was probably expecting a little bit more of a sharper decline and that hasn't happened. It has been more of a grinding. I'm sideways to lower move, but we are stepping low. If you notice these lines here, these lines here represent daily highs. I'm in-between drops, so it's stepping lower, so we have a higher. So we've got, we've got a lower highs developing on the way down. So if you're taking another one here and you're sort of place that up here, you will see those four steps going lower. And then on the, on, on the button on the low side, you've also got a bunch of lower lows. And let's mark that in a different colour so we can distinguish between the, the bottoms here.

 

Let's go with a blue. So take that and then you sort of see. No, we're stepping lower here, right? These are kind of the low points in, in a, in a, in an area trading. And then the, the, uh, the highs, they're all going lower, which means a trend is low and that makes sense because we talked on day nine, as I mentioned in our last video and we're looking for a cycle low around these 60 give or take, 10 or 12, maybe even 15 trading days. So the range where we expect the low is a fairly wide and that's just one of the, uh, one of the, one of the disadvantages I guess, of cycles, you don't get definitive numbers you have to play with, with a range. But what we do see here very clearly is that, uh, we on day nine and we're just now in this declining phase where we're just moving lower and lower and what we're also seeing is volume is really standard dry up.

And uh, it's, it's really simple as becoming a net more negative as, as each week goes by and that's very natural and cycles towards the latter part of the cycle. So now we're on day 54 already, only six days away from kind of your average cycle length. We are in the blue box here, which is the timing zone. That's the area where if we form a low and rally out, there's a chance that it becomes a cycle low. Now we do want to see a decent amount of selling into a cycle low. We kind of want to see one of these events occur. We haven't really seen that, so I think what's happening now is we had a bull flag develop a last few last week or so. We've dropped out of that bull flag. We're now treating near the lows for this cycle, I believe because we were on day 54 and we're getting very close to the next cycle or that we're going to start to see an acceleration of a decline.

Now since the last video I posted where price was around 60 6:30, I think it was. We're down around eight percent or nine percent since that last video. I think we're going to get from here another at least 10 percent, which is around $300. I think we're going to blow this low here, which makes sense in a decline, so we're going to probably. I'm not using the right tool again. I think we're going to take this. All right, so I think we're going to exceed that low there, which was around 30 1:20. That would make a what's called a failed cycle. It would confirm that the trend is to a law and then I think we're going to look for some type of capitulation and heavy volume selling at this point and then we can find a cycle low. What I don't know is where does that lower could occur on day sort of 58 in four days’ time just below 31 slash 20 doesn't occur just above that and then rally up or do we go again two or three times lower that I can't tell you.
I really can't. That's just the nature of the strategy. We have to live with the constraints of the strategy and that's one of them right now. I've been short from all the way back up here. It's been very profitable. Worst case scenario for me right now is I'll walk out with a profit because I won't allow a snapback rally at this point. You get too far away without covering shorts. What I have, what I will tell you about sort of my traders that I take some of these more recent highs in the downtrend and I use those as logical stopping point so this, this height here is a logical stopping point which takes me out of a lot of my position and the second one here takes me out of my position in entirely if this rallies up, if the market rallies from here and so it goes up.

Right? I have no patience with it. Moving above this line here. At that point I started to get a little bullish. I suddenly get neutral. My position and this now is where I'm talking about kind of the alternative scenario where you have a fairly strong opinion on one direction which is lower in my case, but I'm thinking about where I could be wrong and where I could be wrong is if we may be dropped down from here and get to say the $3,200 area, maybe even do a double bottom test of the December 15th law and then come rolling back up. Any one of those could work. Any one of those could form a cycle low here around [inaudible] 56, [inaudible] 57. That would be normal and then a rally would be, uh, you know, it would be the new cycle. Rally will be day one, day two, day three, day four, similar to this type of move here.

But there is no point right now in trying to play the utmost of a potential route when the trend is so clearly down. This is where you would need to let the market go if it starts to rally because it's just a heart. It's a very low probability event that you can capture that capture the gains. Well, pick the bottom first of all, one, then take it higher. So I'm staying with the trend. The trend is lower still and I'm looking to ride my shorts further and deeper as far as I can. So what I will say though is so. So again, just reiterate, if we do start to read it back up, then you get out, you're not going to be short and then you look to maybe say, okay, this is a new reality. This is a new cycle. Whereas an opportunity to get long, so if it came back up and it pulled back, you may be able to get better along in on the poor bag or if you're going to wait, you're wait for like maybe a break of this area up here.

Thirty seven, 100 will even the trend line break. Although it's not much of a trend, but it's using those two tops from the cycle, breaking above that and then getting long. Don't worry about the market getting ahead of you. That's Fomo. You don't want to be chasing a market, you don't want to be fearful of missing out. Okay? I'm not making a profit. Does not hurt your balance sheet in the end. What hurts you. Balance Sheet is taking losses, avoided losses first, worry about the profit second, so this can go up higher. Um, and then you know, you'll find it, you'll find the opportunity to get back in long. So for now what you want to focus on is kind of the short opportunity or the downside risks. So if you're, if you're trading a long, you want to consider, you consider your options from a hedge perspective or from sort of going into to the dollar or two a stable coin or just be aware of your leverage in general.

The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money

 

But essentially what I'm looking for is this big capitulation. Then once we get into these lower areas, if that happens, that's when you start to take some profit. That's when he started to look to get out and then on any major decline. And let's see if I can be in the Bollinger bands in here. Maybe they'll tell us something. Okay? So the Bollinger bands are not very clear but we are right up against them. So the Bollinger bands will get 'em, we'll expand very rapidly. But if we have a significant move over the coming days, we'll use the full app or loaders, Bollinger bands and that will give you an indication that you know, after maybe a couple of days outside those bans that the move may be to extend it. So those are just be some signs that we'll be looking for potentially getting out.

A point then is that if we get down into this lower area around days 60 to 65, the odds for a turn becoming a cycle or become very high at that point. So therefore that's when you want to be looking for long. That makes it easy to get in long or easier getting long. It allows you to potentially a long trade on confirmation of a swing higher. So once we turn former swing low, maybe break above the writer, the, the 10 day moving average at that point, something like that. And give us an indication to get back long and then take some of the new cycle rally. But too many people right now, I see it on twitter, I see it everywhere else. The to focus on the next rally when they should really in theory be focused on protection, protecting themselves from what should be the next and final decline.

Then in due time and due process, they can worry about the next rally. That's the way I see the market today. That's the way I'm trading the market today. And as I said earlier in the video, there's a good chance I might be wrong, maybe around 35 percent. So just be aware of that. Take that under consideration. Whenever you make an investment decision, you're on your own. On this one. Um, you know, we will take responsibility for our trading. I'm just showing you what I'm doing. If it helps, that's great. If it doesn't, you know, I wish you all the best and I wish you all the luck. If feel like the video, give me a, like, share it if you like, on twitter or anywhere else. I'd appreciate that. And I hope you're all doing well and good luck.

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