Will we see a 3000 Bitcoin price in 2019 or 4000? Is it possible to that we are starting mega bull run right now and we will not fall down in price ever? How should trade longtime HODL'er?
This is a followup video from the previous videos I've covered on the bitcoin and the four year cycle. I know the last video obtained a lot of attention, a lot of use up to a rally about a hundred thousand views already to thank you very much for sharing that. If you haven't shared it, please do so because it is the cornerstone of the four year journey. That video does cover the entire expectation for the coming bull market, the accumulation phase followed by the awareness and the retail phase of the next big coin, four year cycle and it will be reference references continuously in all the subsequent videos and the future website that's coming soon. Everything will point back to that four year cycle. That four year cycle video will be referenced frequently. So it's important that that you share that for me and uh, you know, help us spread the word.
In addition, if you're watching this video today and have not seen the four year cycle video, stop the video right now. It's not going to help. Go back and watch that four year cycle video that's posted here on youtube and soon will be posted on the new website which has the four year journey. That's the logo I have up on the screen right now. The four year journey, a bit coin Hoddle Street story. The purpose of the four year journey, Haldol strategy is not simply to buy and hold, although that is a big part of it. It's going to be about learning how to hold a significant position when the gains get serious. And uh, when you're in a very profitable position, how to manage that position. Had a manager psychology, had it manage your emotions, had a, managed the foma that's going to be going on around you.
That's going to be a very important aspect to holding and maintaining those gains. Far too many people get into a good position into a long term investment, but ended up selling out far, far too early. I mean, uh, in the very early stages purely because the gains are just too much to handle and it's a good problem to have. But it does require a lot of strategy in dealing with that. So that's going to be a big part of the four year journey. And of course more importantly is once you get to the point where we feel the four year cycle is in danger of topping out, we would then provide strategies on how to begin to scale out how to begin to exit and how to begin to maximize the uh, you know, the, the, the whole that you did for, for many years. We hope at that point and get out on top with as much of the gain as possible without giving a lot of it back.
Of course, that's going to be a huge part of this going forward. So what's this video going to be about? So we, the first video was what is the opportunity? Okay, so the four year cycle of videos and are published earlier, present the opportunity ahead. So it's the investment thesis for getting into Bitcoin for holding significant amount of coin and you know, what that opportunity looks like going forward. That was kind of the first foundational piece for this series. This video is going to be a little more technical and focus more on the position itself and the allocation that I believe one should consider. I'm not going to tell you what to do. Um, but what type of position you're going to wear. I think you need to maximize your returns over the coming years. I'm also in this video going to allocate and I think I've, I think many of you know this from previous videos and comments I've made.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
I'm going to allocate 25 BTC that I have, um, into a new public address that is going to simulate a $100,000 us portfolio and I'm going to price these at a $4,000 price. Hypothetically, just for the investment, for the portfolio's perspective to simulate that $100,000 investment, 25 BTC at $4,000 equals 100,000. Um, the goal there is not to say they, you should print 100,000. The goal is to basically say that for every $100,000 allocation that you put in to this strategy, this is how you want to trade and invest over the coming months and years. So there'll be points where we weren't take some profit taking our investment out. For example, one of those I believe is going to be around about the $15,000 level where we'd be taking some off the table for example. And I, we use that model portfolio, which is actually real big coin of course as a guide for and more transparency to show you what I'm doing personally with some of my bitcoin.
Now I have a trading account that I trade with trade that on the, on the daily charts. Uh, but this allocation is only for the, you know, the smart huddle story that we there are presenting here as part of the four year cycle that um, if if you're, if you have less to invest, that's fine. You take a percentage of it. If you have 10,000 when the equivalent 10,000 to invest, if that's the right number for you, then you just reduce that by, you know, by, by the 90% in or wherever it is, right? So you're going to you and allocate 10% of that. So you'll use a 2.5 BTC allocation and then you will, um, if you want you of course he followed the same strategy, you will then just proportionally a buy and sell along the way. Um, based on the allocation that will know. And, and if your right allocation is $1 million, for example, then you'll do 10 times the amount and you will again do the same thing you just use 10 times the amount that I do personally.
All right. So before we get too deep into, into the actual allocation and the bitcoin move, let's talk briefly about the overall allocation and what the right allocation might be fee for you. The disclaimer of course, is that none of this is intended to be financial advice. This is educational in nature and I'm actually just outlining what I'm doing personally, how you choose to interpret that information is purely up to you. But I'm just giving you kind of, you know, my background and my experience and how I'm going to approach this going forward and we're trying to do it in a more of a transparent manner of course. Okay. So that's the, um, yeah, that's kind of a disclaimer that I want everybody to be aware of. The other thing is, before I get too deep into this, um, I'm not going to be able to eclipse the previous four years cycle videos in terms of how excited you going to get out over these videos.
That last video, um, the last video I did, it was full of hopium in many ways and full of, um, you know, if it was full of opportunity that people can see as being attainable. And I know people watch that and got really excited. It might, my intention wasn't to, you know, it wasn't a made, it wasn't a motivational video in that sense. It wasn't designed to get you all sort of, uh, you know, really emotional and excited about it. We want to be excited about an investment opportunity, but what we want to be rational and here's where I think, or I think I will lose many of you with this video because this video is an actionable video. It requires you to now begin to take action on your own behalf and, um, you know, put some of this into practice. The previous video allowed you to sit back and get really emotional about the opportunity. Uh, but this one
requires that action that I'm sure many of you will not be able to follow through with. It's almost like a, you know what she knows motive, motivational videos on getting fit, lean and healthy. You know, they're easy to watch and they're, they're actually nice to wash. They give you that kind of adrenaline rush and you can kind of like taste it in for a brief second there. But then once the video ends and you go back to your, your life, you know, it's, it's very hard to make those lifestyle changes that you, in terms of getting to the gym in terms of working out, in terms of eating the right foods, for example, to obtain those results. So those motivational videos, I very sort of short term impact. And in some ways that full year cycle video was similar barrier be provides the motivation or outlines the opportunity.
But how you choose now to begin and to execute is really what's going to be important to this. The same applies to investing. It requires focus, it requires a plan, it requires a strategy. And most of all it's going to require a lot of discipline patients and it's gonna require you to, to do the execution portion of that strategy. So the first point we're going to cover here is the actual allocation amount. How much should you buy? How much am I buying, for example? Um, and what's the thought process behind that? So simply we want a position in Bitcoin to take advantage of the four year cycle opportunity to be able to walk away with that, um, significantly financially free, right? But we don't want to approach it with a sense that we're going to get filthy rich. If you start thinking filthy rich, you actually probably going to end up not making any money to be honest with you and potentially even losing money.
And that's because it's just difficult to be significantly over leverage or over position to one opportunity and safely and easily ride. You know, the ebb and flow nature of a specular live and volatile asset like bitcoin. It's best to have a reasonable position, a reasonably sized position that you will be able to sleep comfortably at night, not waking up at four in the morning to check the price of bitcoin or when bitcoin has a really bad week, for example, that you, uh, emotionally stressed by it purely because of the, you know, the, the amount of leverage and the size of the position that you have is a, is just far too proportionately big for your overall wealth situation. In your current lifestyle.
So for me personally, the number, the allocation that I want is a maximum of 10% of kind of liquid assets that I, that I hold. It's actually closer to 5% than it is 10%. I don't want to be allocating any more than that to this type of strategy. I'm not a believer in the sense that bitcoin is going to replace every other government issued currency. Uh, I'm not a believer that bitcoin will be kind of the world reserve currency. I do believe it will hold a significant store of value probably more than the value of all goal. For example, of h atrial indoors. I think it's going to have a significant place within the world financial system. Um, but I don't see go much more beyond that for reasons sort of beyond this video right at the time we have allocated. Um, so, so for me, you know, I still want to own rushed, um, businesses and I still want to own a real estate.
I definitely own stocks and I definitely want to own gold and I definitely want to own a other assets and other income producing assets. And this for me is just one component of my overall investing and wealth strategy. Okay. So having an allocation of more than 10% in my opinion, even though the opportunity is so great is uh, I wouldn't call it reckless, but it's unnecessary and certainly if it goes beyond 20%, I would call that reckless. And if you're borrowing funds or trying to get as much exposure as you can to bitcoin because you see price, like I do potentially getting up to that, uh, you know, six figures and beyond area, then going back to what I said earlier, it's going to be very difficult to hold that and hold that position because the amount of stress it's going to create, it's going to cloud your judgment and it's going to make it very easy for you to lose that position at some point along that journey.
Um, so for me, you know, 5% 7% is a good enough allocation. They also have an allocation on the trading side at double that size as well. So there's allocation there and obviously I have a with videos and different websites exposure to, to, to crypto itself. So, um, point is that when you're looking at something with such a huge asymmetrical opportunity, so meaning that, you know, for every one unit of risk that you put in, we're looking at an opportunity of say 30, 40, 50 x, then that alone tells you that you don't need to risk whole lot. You know, why risk 20 30%, 40% of what you've worked so hard for, um, where you, the opportunity is 20, 30, 40 and 50 x. There's no sense, there's no point in doing that even with a 10% allocation. If we can realize the goal of this journey, then we're talking about being, you know, 300%, 400% up overall on your disposable wealth and income.
So that's, that's the perspective I think we need to take into this when looking at such a enormous possibility that's a lies ahead take a more sustainable allocation to this that allows you to see this as one component of an overall strategy. And um, but at the same time, right? What's going to be very important is that we have to realize if it realize that reward, if it gets up that high. So you don't want to be like almost everybody else who doesn't have a strategy, they're going to get in here. They're going to, they're going to call themselves a hurdler, right? And they're going to buy, but they're going to get out at 7,000 they're going to get out at 9,000 or 12,000 or 18 if you get to do this right, reduce your allocation to a very manageable size. So we can get to the point where if bitcoin hits 50 and 60,000 and a hundred thousand and 150,000 that we have the exposure when nobody else or very few are going to be able to have that exposure.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
So that's the trade off. And that's a reason why we want to manage it while occasion because we want to be able to impress it. At that point. We want to be able to say, Huh, yeah, this is what we, this is what we planned for. This was the, at least the goal. It wasn't the prediction. It was just the goal. And we're here now and we have a plan and we're going to execute to that plan all the way to the end. And that's going to be, I think, um, the overall and overarching, um, you know, theme and message from this website and this and this journey that we're going to take is that if we do realize that cycle the way it was outlined in the previous video, then we will take the, we will profit from that. Um, and along the way we will have risk mitigation built into this.
And the first risk mitigation piece starts with the allocation. When you make that allocation and you go on this journey, you are immediately risking five to 10%, whatever that number is of that wealth into this sort of strategy. So you're immediately had that at risk. But if that's the overall defined risk, then that at least for me is manageable and something I'm willing to take on. So you have to be one willing to say I'm going to potentially lose my initial 5% or 10% allocation to this. And that's the price I pay to see if bitcoin will or could, um, you know, get itself up to that level that we have outlined in the previous videos. That's the risk we take. Now again, like I said, along the way, we will start to, if, if bitcoin's succeeds even partially getting to even previous highs, I will show you a way, at least I will, um, take back a lot of my initial risk by taking some off the table and minimizing that rest to the point where we'll be playing with, so to speak, the house's money.
And we will be in a very strong position if it gets up back to all time highs and beyond. Very strong position because we will have taken back our investment and banked it and we'll be sitting with only a Prato positions. And the reason we want to get to that point is it makes holding through massive gains, much easier to do. So the $100,000 25 BTC position that I have is not my full huddle position, but it's actually not too far away from it to be honest with you. So for me it's going to be meaningful. It's a, it does represent exactly how I'm going to trade this over the next two, three years. Um, so I want to, I wanted it to be meaningful. I wanted it to um, to be significant. I will, I will in a minute, um, open up the Tresor here, uh, live on, on this recording and make that move and published the public addresses.
I know there's a security, privacy type of concern there. It's fine with me and none of my coins, a sort of black market coins. I bought these on exchanges. They are tied to my name and I do intend to pay my taxes when a cell. So I don't have any issue with that. And a lot of my coins are very hard to trace back to other sort of a investment. So I'm okay with that. I'll publish the, the, the public address or you can just track it. He can see, you know, if a bail out then you'll know that, um, you know, my four year journey is a, is not what it was or what I said it was going to be. So I feel that adds a little bit of a, I won't call it legitimacy, but it just, I think it adds more realism to the journey that we want to take over the next three to four years.
So, uh, I don't, I'm not encouraging you to post your BTC public addresses, but if you want to, it might be fun in the comments as well to publish your allocation, um, to this or at least a portion of it, whatever you choose to do. Um, and you know, we can run along and let's see how we go over the years and we can look back at that. But in in the future when we get to stage one or allocation or step one where we're going to take some off the table, I'll be taking an hour of that BTC allocation of 25 and showing the um, you know, over time the, uh, the, the sales that we make as part of that strategy. All right, so onto my Tresor, I took a, uh, created a new address. This is the address here. We have a zero PTC obviously in this account. So now I'm going to go to my Tresor and I'm going to send the 25 BTC to this address and this address will, will be the tracking address for the remainder of the four year cycle. Okay, so I've just sent from a Tresor to this address and we do our reef
on this page.
All right, so there it is a one transaction unconfirmed 25.05 BTC. All right. Um, so now we have our tracking address, all this, my tracking address for this journey. This represents my $100,000 allocation, although it's worth more than that now of course. But the reason why I said 4,000 and didn't use less PTC was because the first video I published, I think bitcoin was around $4,600 and the second video in this may be, this may be the other way around, but one video was at 4,700. The other video was at 40 or 3,600. Um, so around about, you know, an average of around about 4,000 or $4,200 is kind of when I've been calling people to make their allocation, get their position that they need. So I'm just modeling this off of that. In the end, I'm thinking it makes a huge, it's going to make a huge amount of difference, especially when we're talking about the type of money or the type of price that I'm looking for for BTC in the future.
So I get the question a lot. Hey, you know, you've been talking about this big retrace back to the December Lowe's or a big shake out and things like that. So why should I buy now? Why should I buy my 5% or 10% allocation today if I don't have it? When you expect bitcoin to go back down? And that's a good question. I mean it's, it makes sense to, to some extent, right? Um, if, if I'm talking about a $2,000 drop, dropping bitcoin at 30 and 40% drop, why the hell would you want to get in? Now when the, the answer was kind of simple. It is that one, the opportunity here is for 40 x move. So you don't want to be playing around with the entry when really this is all about the holding and the smart holding and being able to hold through the larger numbers that we planned to see in the future.
It's all going to become irrelevant if bitcoin gets to 150,000 and you haven't gone that position yet, right? Um, there's a chance and coins, a crazy volatile asset that has, has a huge following. There's a chance that from this level today, I'm going to flip to a chart and here's the weekly right there. Here's there's a chance. Now that bitcoin goes higher and there's not necessarily even come back into this area. It's not what I expect at the moment. But there's a chance and if you don't have the allocation and something that that plays out, you're not going to be able to get in. And if you do get in, it's not going to be with a writer location. You're going to be pretty upset that it's already doubled or more in price. And I telling you, you're not going to be able to get on board with a showed you like this.
So if, if, if bitcoin does something like this and gets to see 7,500 but then retraces back down, you know, to know more than sort of 6,000 and then sort of spends a lot of the time and the bottom there before going higher, you're going to find it very hard to get any type of allocation based on this because you're looking in your eyes focused on this 3000 or even 2000 area and 4,000 for one more time. I mean it comes a point where there just isn't another one more time down right now. Um, if, if you need to, you could take a position now and then also add a little, a little extra more if it does or when it does get down to that $3,000 range. I do think because I've been through so many bear market bottoms in the past, uh, I do think we ended up seeing at some point soon, um, either with the May 60 day cycle lows chew some type of decline down.
All right. Or even further to that one more in August, which is the next 60 days cycle after kind of down into this sort of (363) 063-0500 area, which would be a huge shakeout. Maybe even go further down. You just don't know. It's not about short term price prediction. It's more about letting her know what the possibilities are and if this would occur. We want to be prepared for that as well. And we'll be ready for a, but you don't want to be waiting on the allocation for something like this. You want to maybe add to it a little bit, get a little more exposure if if you need to, um, knowing that we're now well and truly past, you know, the four year cycle and then it can come up from there. Like I said in the four year cycle video, that's more like the plot.
That's more like the trajectory I outlined in the four year cycle video. But it's a regardless, right? This is still a good price. This is below all the clusters that we saw in 2018 it is still 75% or so below the peak. It's a good entry guys. It's a good place to get your position and be content with it and if it gets $1,000 lower, 2000 like it's possible, then it's fine that this is part of the process at some point as part of the strategy, if, if it unfolds, we're going to be well above that and your position will be well on the black. So I just, all I can say is get your position, hold the position, and just look longer term when it comes to the price movement. Never look at bitcoin from a daily chart perspective. Ignore the news like we had yesterday.
For example, with the tether news, ignore that news. That's all noise for a long term holder. Look, it's just one little candle. Here it is here. That's the news right there. In the grand scheme of things, when you zoom out, what do you see? All right, you see so many of the EEC, Mt. Gox all the way back. You know, many, many years ago, you see other scares and you see other hacks and for example, you see other bear markets. It's all part of the process. It's all noise. You get caught up in that noise, you're going to lose your position where you're never going to get your position and you're gonna miss the focus on the longterm goal, which is up here. Okay? As was outlined in the 40 cycle. That's the goal. That's the plan. As I said before, eye on the prize. Um, get your position now and get it in BTC.
I get asked a lot, should my position be, you know, a bunch of old coins or a bunch of different coins? Well yeah, you can have some, right? But this trade is going to be about BTC and why, I'll tell you very simply why it's been 10 years, a little more than 10 years since the Tosha came out with the first true sort of tradable cryptocurrency, bitcoin and intense straight years. We've seen probably 5,000. Now I'm just guessing it, I know it's many thousands cause there's already a couple of thousand on, on the market cap website, but there's probably been around 5,000 different treatable coins that have come out in the 10 years. There's been around about 15 or 20 clones or forks of bitcoin itself. There's been other supposedly bitcoin crushing technologies that have come out and come and gone. But think about this for a second.
In 10 straight years, there's one asset that's still commands more than 50% of the total market cap has never once been, um, unseated from the number one market cap position. Okay. Has by far the absolute most hashing power behind it and is the only real asset that smart money institutions and and wealth managers care to be involved in. And it has the network and it had the brand. So why, you know, when we're looking at a 40 x 50 x opportunity like this with bitcoin's history, why the hell did we want to mess with anything else? People get greedy and they think, well a theory I'm did you know 200 x or even 1000 x? Yeah, it did. So what K and there's down the 92% as well. Since then it doesn't matter. Go with what has the highest by far probability of, of being, uh, of, of you know, of being achievable.
And in this case that probability is bitcoin. That probability is bitcoin over the next four year cycle getting up and doing another 10 or 20 x from the all time highs as it has in previous cycles. That's the opportunity that I want to focus on and solely on and not be sidetracked with the allure of massive gains from other old coins that could end up easily being unseated by others. A theorem could easily be unseated by eos or neo or Ada or any other that one of these sort of uh, you know, distributed apps, platforms, smart contract platforms that are out there. There's so many of them. It's a matter of what's the next flavor of the month. Theory was not guaranteed to be at a privacy coins like Minero and z cash. I mean there could be easily unseated by you know, big coin privacy that's coming.
There's a whole host of reasons why any one of these other ones will or could simply just fall off that top 10 list and never come back. You don't want to be in that. This is about minimizing the risk, focusing on what the potential is, and then executing with, you know, w w with a lot of focus, right on a strategy and a plan to come out of this at the end with 100% looking back saying, yeah, three years ago in April of uh, of 2019 I put in my application and I was going to take x amount out of 15, I was gonna take x amount out of 50. I was gonna take x amount out of a hundred. And I did, you know, it came true and I executed because the plan was reasonable and manageable. Okay. I know I'm kind of being a little repetitive here and I do that on purpose because I think people need to just slim down the expectations, be hyperfocused and see the, see the vision and then make sure they execute towards it.
And then of course, mitigate risk. Okay. And here's another thought. Back in 2014 I really liked what I was seeing in bit coin. Um, but it was in the crashing stage was in, it was in halfway through the bear market or more, was crushing through $400 from sort of 1300 on the way down. I didn't want to buy because I wanted to see the hundred dollar level and this was a tweet that I reply to somebody who was following on August 24th it went down to 150 and I still didn't buy, it was down 90 something percent, I believe 92 if I'm not mistaken. And I never bought an overbought, but until I got back up, you know, many, I think it was like a year later, towards the end of the following year, it's something like 850 or $900, um, 10 times higher or from the 150 bottom around six times higher. And that's just huge.
And, and getting close to new all time high, it's around, that will be the equivalent of around about $15,000 a day. Getting back three quarters of the way back up before getting back in. So that's the risk you run by waiting too much and look at this from, you know, from the $300 level or I could have bought out, you know, it went to 20,000. I eventually did buy and I eventually got out quite a quite a bit out from around 10 to 20,000. Point is though that, you know, it never seems like the best time to buy and sometimes it's not the best time. Uh, it doesn't end up being in hindsight the best time, but in the future it was the best time because you've got your position and that's one thing I want to make, make clear that does that get your position is the right thing to do when you're an investor, when you have a longterm horizon, um, you never going to be able to catch that very bottom.
People like to think that they can, but trust me, even when a big capitulation comes, you're going to be too scared to enter at that point. It's going to reverse on you and then you never get back here and just by your position, get comfortable with that and get comfortable with whatever you have given and wherever price might go, Mike May go in the short term. Okay, so let's wrap this up. Okay, so these videos are going to come out probably every three weeks, maybe every four weeks, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. Uh, these are free, right? The, there, there are no expectations. I have a view that you do your own research. I'm providing some of the research. I hope for you, you're on your own. After that I'm here to help as much as possible. There's going to be a website coming out soon for the four year journey where this would be published and also some more written text and an opportunity for us to do more of a forum type discussion.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
So they should be out in maybe a week, maybe two weeks. I was hoping to have had it out by now, but it's not out. Um, again, as always, I'm not a youtuber. I have no plan on being a youtuber. I don't spend time polishing up these videos. Uh, I don't add graphics and sound and music and so forth. You're not going to get that for me. You're going to get just what a experience I have and in my best effort to present that experience to you in a meaningful way. Um, if you don't like it then, and not trying to sell you anything, you can move along very nicely. If you do like it, you're welcome to share the videos. You're welcome to share the website. You're welcome to share the story. The more people we can help here to take advantage of what I think is coming, I think the better off we'll all be.
And I think we can always look back on it and a, and a smile and maybe even one day get together and, uh, have a small celebration. So I hope you enjoyed this video today. It's a little more technical and a little more, uh, it takes, it requires a little more action on your behalf. Like I said before, it's time to get out from the hopium. That's great to have a 50,000 foot plan. Now it's time to execute on the first step of that. That's the allocation. I hope it works for you. Thanks for listening and wish you all the best.