If BTC bottomed on 3k, we would go to 30 k
In this video, we're going to try our best to answer a very important question, which many of you have been asking. And the question is, if bitcoin has bottomed, then what is the most likely scenario for bitcoin? In other words, if bitcoin has bottomed, what could potentially happen next? What is the most likely scenario next for bitcoin? Now, before I asked her this question, I'm sure there's some people watching this video right now and saying to themselves, well, isn't it obvious what could potentially happen next on bitcoin is going to go to 100,000 bro, it's obvious. Okay, putting that aside, I think if you like me are more logically and analytically minded and if you prefer logic, reason, evidence and methodology as opposed to hype, uh, then this is a video for you because I'm going to try my best explained to you what could potentially happen next if bitcoin has likely bottomed.
Uh, by the way, I should also mention this, quite important that what we're not saying in this video is that bitcoin has definitely 100% bottomed. We're not saying that, and I'm not saying that. Let me just stress this point. We do not know with 100% certainty that bitcoin has bottomed here, okay? Even though it may look like it has, remember, there is no such thing as 100% certainty in the markets, okay? No person on this planet can possibly know with 100% certainty that bitcoin has bottomed here. All right, guys, listen, there's plenty of people I'm sure you've seen on CNBC plants. You have, you know, experts so called experts who go on CNBC and they argue a very powerful, very convincing case that Bitcoin, yes, 100% has bottomed and they'll give you all kinds of powerful stories. I'm sure you've heard it all. Oh, the technology has improved for bitcoin now.
Oh, uh, institutions are now buying bitcoin now, a Starbucks, and some companies are now paying and using bitcoin now, okay? Listen, all of those stories may be true, but remember, they do not prove that bitcoin has definitely 100% bottomed here, okay? There's no proof of that whatsoever. You can argue a good case. You can say there's a probability. You can say there's a probability that bitcoin has bottomed here. That is not the same thing as certainty are you guys remember there are no such things as certainties in the markets or in analysis. There are only probabilities. All guys, and by the way, in a separate video, I will explain to you what could potentially happen next if bitcoin has not bottomed. We'll cover that in the video very soon. But for the purposes of this video, what I'm going to do, my best is address this point.
If bitcoin has bottomed, if bitcoin has bottomed, then what is the most likely scenario next for bitcoin. All right guys, so we're going to try and answer that. Uh, one more thing I should mention is this. What really matters to us is not the story. We don't really care about the stories and the narratives that are being put out by CNBC and Bloomberg. What we really care about is this, the price action, that's all that matters. If you listen to some of the best traders in the world, like Paul Tudor Jones, Jerry Parker, Dale tell you the exact same thing. What matters is not the news or the narrative you hear on television. What matters is the price, action, price action is king. All right guys, as Bernard Baruch once said, show me the chart and I'll tell you the news, not, I'll watch the news and then figuring out what's happening to the price.
So let's continue. Now the question is this, if bitcoin is bought on, what is the most likely scenario for bitcoin? So what I'm gonna do, my best guys in this video is trying to answer this question as simply and logically as possible. Uh, by the way, before I do that though, let me just show you this. This is a very interesting chart to bitcoin on mt four chart and there is no one to show you. This is because now you won't probably see this on trading view. A bet on mt four, which excludes, we can data, which is quite useful in my opinion. Look what happened. This is a week he chalked off a bitcoin and look at that. Look at that candle bar on that right hand side right there. All right, very interesting. That looks to me like a sort of like a Doji, spinning top candle stick at resistance by the way the are or the resistance level as well, which often can signify a potential reversal.
This often can signify a sort of a reversal pattern, especially when it happens. Nixed the resistance is kind of a Doji candle stick better, but it's quite interesting. We'll have to observe that and see if we get some kind of confirmation of that in the next week or so. Now I'll explain to you what the significance of this is a later in this video, but for the purposes of this video, what I'm going to do to ask this question as to what could potentially happen next on bitcoin if it has bottomed, is use probably one of the best leading indicators out there, which is Elliot Wave Theory. Now I realize there are some people watching this video right now who are not probably fans of Elliot Wave Theory. I understand that less than five years ago, I probably was not a fan of Elliot wave theory either and as I'm sure you're probably aware, no methodology on the planet.
The smart way you should try to start Bitcoin trading with small amount of money
Can possibly be correct 100% of the time. Okay. Nothing can be right 100% at a time. All right, but what I found out is that the one of the best leading indicators, one of the best ways to be able to forecast the market is Elliot Wave Theory and by the way, some of the best trading minds in the world also use Elliot wave theory. For example, the great trader Paul Tudor Jones who owns $1 billion hedge fund, he himself also uses Elliot wave theory. Jack Schwager, author of market wizards also has said he uses Elliot wave theory. One of the things I should also address as this, there are some people who say, well, isn't Elliott wave theory subjective? Isn't it possible for two different people to have different wave interpretations of the same chart? Let me just say something about that. 99.9% off analysis of chart analysis is subjective. Listen, even without Elliot wave theory, even without Elliott waves show the chart of any market to anybody, to any charts, analysts and I will guarantee you gave, will give you a different interpretation of the charts.
They will give you two or three different interpretation of the same chart and that's without Elliot waves. And the reason is each person, each individual chart analysts will approach the market in their own unique way from their own unique angle. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree. Okay, let's continue. Now according to Elliot, wave theory, markets move in the direction of the major trends in five waves. In other words, markets tend to trend in five waves and actually is quite useful. The reason why they do that is because the psychology of the crowd, in fact, uh, the person behind the Elliott wave theory found that, uh, it's a psychology of market participants, the crowd that causes the market movements to move essentially in five waves. Now, I don't want to spend too much time on this, but let me just give you some background about the psychology of the Iliad waves.
While I want to say very quickly is this wave one is usually started by institutional buying. So it's usually wave one is usually propagated by, uh, professionals getting in behind it. Um, so then you get the wave one, didn't we get the wave two correction wave to corrections is usually caused by short sellers and perhaps some profit taking. Then you get into wave three. Wave three is usually brought about by the crowd. People joining in, you know, most people begin to join in in the way three participation by everybody else. And then you've got the profit taking more profiting in way for, and then you get away five wave five actually is a fomo crap. This is the, a Johnny come lately is, you know, the fear of missing out crowds. Okay, that's the way five and then you get them major correction with ABC.
One important thing that we also need to remember is it Elliot waves are like Russian dolls or the awards is like a one doll inside another doll or doll and so on and so on. Because remember each wave is composed off smaller ways. Um, and actually the easiest way just to remember this is that, you know, just think of it this way. Each wave, like for example, wave one three and five wave one, three and five are composed I five smaller waves and waves two and four are composed of three smaller ways. Now I know you're probably thinking how does this help us with regards to bitcoin will come to this in just a few moments. But here's what I want you to do. Look at right now. You'll see guys, if the markets move in the direction that made a trend, if market's trend in five waves, that means we need to pay very close attention to the start of that five wave move.
Okay? Especially waves one and two. Why? Because if bitcoin has bottomed, then it's quite likely we're dealing with waves one and two of the large, major mega trend you want to call it that. So if you think about that, that means this, according to Elliot Wave Theory, wave one is composed of five smaller waves. Now remember that it's going to be a very important, remember wave one is itself composed of five smaller waves. As you can see right here on this chart that blue, the Blue Dash Line you see right there, it's a five wave move inside a larger wave one and that means also wave two is composed of three smaller waves. The ABC wave. Something also I would draw your attention to is this wave two. As you can see here is a retracement off wave one. In fact, wave two is usually if 50% to 61.8% retracement or correction to wave one.
That's going to be very important to us when we look at the chart of bitcoin and by the way once wave to complete, as you can see here, once wave two completes a, by the way, wave two cannot go below the lows of wave one. It's quite important. Once we have to complete, then we start the larger wave three that you see here. And that's how we can begin to understand that a new trend has developed, a new bull market has developed in a specific market like for example in Bitcoin. So what does this mean? Well, we're going to come to that in just a few moments, but let me just give you some examples. Take a look at this chart here. This is the chart of bitcoin from the year 2015 to 2018 so you can see on this chart when the last major correction ended here, we started the new uptrend.
Okay, that's a one, two three, four, five wave move that occur between 2015 to 2018 let's go to the next chart. There it is. This is 2013 that the previous bull market that occurred in Bitcoin of five wave move and there it is in 2012 to 13 as you can see right there. One important thing and notice on this chart, notice on these charts, it's notice waves one and two. Notice how a wave to here is a retracement to wave one and when wave two completes, we start to wave three. Okay, so let's just go back to that. Here's another example for you. Wave One and two retracement and here it is. Back in 2015 notice, uh, that 2015 we had the wave one wave two retracement and then we started wave three. So how does this help us? Well, let's take a look at this weekly chart.
There's a wiki chart of bitcoin here I'm looking at on bit stamp. So this means that if potentially we are completing wave one, let's just assume for the moment that will we're dealing with, here is a potential wave one, which is quite probable. So this is wave one. Then what is most likely to happen next as you probably gathered by now is let's just look at this chart one more time is a correction or retracement to wave too. But that's not all. As I just mentioned, wave one is composed of five smaller waves. And guess what? If we go on a lower timeframe chart. This is a lower timeframe chart of bitcoin. Right now there's a four hour chart of bitcoin and notice that we can actually make out a five wave move in bitcoin since December. Okay. As you can see, our five wave potential move in Bitcoin, I have, it could argue that a fifth wave here is potentially completing here or getting near to completion.
All right guys, let's go back to the chart here on bitcoin is again the weekly chart. Now again, if this is wave one and we're about to complete wave one, this means we should expect the retracements. I'm going to get my Fibonacci tool again. Just go on the FIBONACCI tools, get FIBONACCI retracement. So we're going to draw from the lows to the highs and means that if we're going to expect a wave to your potential wave two retracement to this, does this rally? All right, so this is our wave one, which as we mentioned is itself composed of five smaller waves. Then we should probably expect a retracement. Okay. And wave two retracement potential ABC move, which could bring it down to the 50% or the 61.8% correction, a retracement levels. As you can see, these are the levels we're seeing here. The 61.8% level puts it a 5,100 or 5,136 uh, if, by the way, if wave one is completed here and the 50% level puts it at the 5,700 level, all right, so our preferred level of course would be somewhere close to the 61.8% retracement.
By the way, you may remember in a recent video I mentioned that usually after markets move above the averages above these key averages, the weekly 55 and the weekly 100 moving averages, usually price has a retracement back down to test these averages. We saw this happening for example, in 2015 as well, and also in the, in 2012 I think it was as well. So usually in markets after they take out these averages, they have the retracement back down to this. Of course there's no guarantee that could happen, but it's quite probable. So once wave to therefore complete. So let's assume we get our, uh, let me just draw this wave one wave two correction or wave two retracement. Let me just start out one more time. Okay. That's our wave two retracement. What we should probably expect after that is a bounce from these levels.
So what we're looking for the market from here to curve and essentially bounce off of these levels. Okay, that makes sense. When you think about it in wave one and two completes aroundabout here. Uh, so wave to complete some out here. We should start our way three from about these levels and then potentially move higher. Uh, by the way, some of you are probably thinking, uh, what is the significance of this 76.4% retracement? Now sometimes we've seen before that prices, that price can go be a low of 61.8% retracement and come even down to the 76.4% retracement. That's like the 4,000, 300 level, which would be fantastic if that happens because that also provides a lower support level from which, for example, bitcoin could bounce from. Okay? Again, if we're forming waves one and two here, so that's again the scenario we're dealing with, which means this, by the way, guys, that if waves one and two, in other words, if wave two completes about here and bounces off these levels, all right, then the most likely scenario we're dealing with on bitcoin for the future is this.
So here on this chart, I plot it for you the future probable scenario on bitcoin. If we're dealing with a bull market, a five wave uptrend, our guys, and as you can see here, uh, there's our wave one two, which would likely complete near these averages or near the, uh, 5,000, a 100,000, 200 levels here. Uh, and then start the move up towards wave three. And by the way, even though I've drawn this way, three and kind of a straight line, as I'm sure you already know, nothing moves in a straight line. Uh, often we'll have glitches corrections along this wave and that could take us potentially to the three 30,000 level by the year 2021. But essentially, uh, now some of you are probably thinking, well, isn't 30,000 quite conservative? Maybe, who knows? But for those of you who are more bullish on Bitcoin, well here it is.
Here's the scenario for a 50,000 targets. Now some of you may be thinking, well, what if bitcoin has not completed wave one, uh, last week? What if for example, bitcoin continues to go to 10,000 before it starts to wave two. So I've given you a different scenario here for waves one and two, as you can see here. So this, what you're seeing here is a different scenario. If bitcoin continues to go up towards 10,000 and then starts to wave to retracements, okay. And this situation, it would look something like this, wave one to wave two would probably come down as 6,000 level or 5,700. And then completed about here before starting the wave three higher for a move towards 30,000. But let's just go back to the previous wave count that I showed you here. Let's assume for the sake of simplicity that wave one has completed here, uh, let's say that the highest we made last week.
Therefore this is the more likely scenario we're dealing with in a Phi wave move up trend in bitcoin. In a nutshell, what we're saying is this, that I likely move and likely retracement is now probable on bitcoin and all we have to do keeping it very simple is, well, let's wait and see where this retracement takes us. A preferred scenario is that if wave one has completed here, then wave two is likely to complete around this level between a 50% to 61.8% retracement levels, again between 5,100 to 5,700 and again, we need to keep in mind these averages. These averages can often provide some support. Now you might be asking these questions. It's a very good question. What happens if bitcoin drops below the 61.8% retracement? Well, we'll cover that in a separate video that I'll put out for you about what happens if bitcoin has not bottomed. All right? So we'll cover that in a separate video. Uh, but of course, we do have the 76.4% retracement down here as well.